A clear no go system. For a conservative sytem having already such large drawdown is a joke. I just pulled out. I cannot understand how it went from up 10% to -0.6% in july. And now even worse in august. Ciao
I have only been trading this system for a short time and so far I am very pleased with the results and the methodology. Anytime a strategy is short premium the risk profile is daunting. I believe this strategy works very well with other systems and the risk profile can be managed as part of a group of strategies.
This system basically tells it all in the trade record. I think almost anyone would be happy with the net results of 450% in a few months correct? Look closely at the size of the positions taken. Look closely at the drawdowns intraday and intratrade. Can you take a $20,000 hit intraday and keep on going? If not I would stay away. If you have a few hundred thousand and want to allocate a portion to this system, I think that might be a viable strategy. I still think at this leverage level a flash crash or other black swan event against the position could wipe out your account since he trades at a very high position size for the equity shown.
From watching the trader in action, I would say there is some discretion going on adjusting orders and using a martingale type entry. In other words, he lets himself be stopped out of part of a position and re-enters more just beyond the stop. It is still very impressive in net result, so you have to say he is a good trader. Just be aware that you will have to auto trade due to the very high activity level, and also be aware that the holding for longer trend statement in the description has not really happened in the last 2 months that I can see.
Last thing is that if you trade a partial position, I'm not sure your results will mirror his. Since he trades around an idea, getting stopped out and re-entering, the partial trade will only get a portion of the record shown.
I agree with the last few reviews. Not sure what Brad is (was) thinking. Unfortunately I got about the middle of July. Made a few good small profits... then the SPXS debacle, and then NUGT. Yesterday I bailed and sold all my NUGT. I am considering myself "lucky". I wish those of you who are remaining The Best Of Luck.
My questions to the developer:
Hi Bradley,
Your stats look impressive and I've been considering to subscribe for sometime. Just a few questions:
1- I believe this is a discretionary trading method, correct?
2- What kind of max drawdown is not acceptable for BluStar3X?
3- Are you sending limit orders or market orders (I'll trade manually)?
4- What is the max drawdown per trade?
5- Are you trading this strategy for yourself?
His answers:
1) discretionary
2) 5%
3) Market orders
4) Average 1-2% Max
5)Yes
AND STATS:
MAX DRAWDOWN: 20.61% in TWO TRADES.
NO COMMENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing new - just another banker getting nice numbers to attract customers. All is good. Then suddenly the strategy changes and in few trades the account in burnt.
EVERYONE GET OUT OF THE NUGT TRADE - GOLD CAN CRASH FURTHER ANYTIME - USE COMMON SENSE AND LEARN TO TRADE WITH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND INDICATORS!
MOST STRATEGIES HERE ARE MADE TO RIP YOU OFF - OBSERVE AND USE COMMON SENSE.
Brad
..I..
Brad had a good system going. Nothing heroic but solid gains with reasonable risk management and everyone was happy.
Then the NUGT trade. I think Brad believed so much that the trade would work out that even if it did (which it looks like it won't) people would leave the system because it's not the kind of risk they're willing to accept.
Right now (July 23, 2015 NUGT trade, down 11%) this looks like a second really bad call for this system which was already down 6% last week by going against the market with SPXS and holding all week. It's also a risky call, since NUGT is triple leveraged, gold is extremely volatile, and it's extremely difficult to predict gold stocks.
Combined with the current drawdown, this eliminates all but 3% of my 18% gain since starting BLUSTAR3X autotrade in early May, and still looking at the possibility of losing significantly more if NUGT does not reverse course very soon. Originally the system owner was going to do 50% SPXS and 50% NUGT. This would have been safer.
In my opinion these last two trades violate two of the basic rules of trading, e.g. (a) try to minimize risk while maximizing profits and (b) cut your losses short and let your winners ride. The first (SPXS) trade clearly violates (b) while the second one violates (a). I might add that Brad had a pretty good May and a really good June by making lots of little gains and some small losses. However, if your winning percentage on SPXL/SPXS is 70% but you only typically make 1-2% on the winning trades (let's say 1%) but then lose 2% or more on the losing trades (either by holding onto losing positions or gambling on risky trades like NUGT) then you will not be successful, and certainly will not beat the market. Also, I consider both of these trades to be unforced errors - the first because the system held too long (also I wouldn't have taken the trade but would have stayed in cash because of the inherent risk in going short for the 3rd weekend in a row, when both the Iran and Greek deals were about to be announced, and the system had already made gains the previous 2 weeks on this trade) and the second because it's too risky and not part of the original strategy of the system. So in two weeks (or slightly less) almost all of the gains since May 8 have been wiped out, with what I consider to be excessively risky trades.
Have to watch these systems for a while before following. Its how a trader deals with drawdowns that says it all and holding on to a big loser is a mistake, then take on a huge risk to try and make back those losses is a real rookie mistake!
I just wanted to express my disappointment with this system. When I subscribed developer was trading system paying attention to drawdowns. But in last two trades he is totally disregarding risk management and taking huge drawdown 19s. I would advise him to pay attention to risk management. Huge drawdown 19s are big no-no to success of a system here on collective.
I subscribed to this system a couple of weeks before the 5.1% drawdown in May -- bad timing on my part. Luckily, I stuck with it and I'm now in the black. The system vendor really seems to have identified a market inefficiency with these VIX ETFs. I like the fact that the system is not correlated with the S&P. The two reason's why I can't give it 5 starts are 1) There is significant slippage due to the roughly $500K of funds autotrading this strategy, and 2) the losers are usually several times bigger than the winners, so a bad losing streak can take quite a while to recover from.
Good system than in good conditions can do very good profits, and in bad conditions the risk management works perfectly and you feel save waiting the next shot.
We have subscribed for only a short time. During that time we have only seen short option trades in the near month. No major dramas thus far and the developer has been consistently delivering. However we do worry about an event which pulls these naked short options underwater and if the developer can get out in a timely manner.
Overview:
I have been in contact with this signal provider for over two months and have carefully monitored the system.
Overall, I am **very impressed** with:
1) excellent responsiveness to messages,
2) good market timing,
3) cumulative performance, AND
4) frequent updates.
Concerns include a:
1) limited time-horizon for performance evaluation, AND
2) limited information regarding the financial position of the signal provider. (Note: This applies almost sitewide.)
As such, I believe 4/5 stars is the appropriate rating, with the potential for an upgrade following more time.
Downside Risk:
All and all, there appears to be good risk control and stop-limits. There was two (significant) mistakes regarding treasury bonds resulting in a large drawdown, but I am confident that lessons were learned from that episode.
Securities trading (like forex) is a zero sum gain and constitutes significant risk. The only way to be successful in this space is to be right most of the time, and ALWAYS prioritize capital preservation. This provider appears to understand that.
Historical Performance:
Statistically speaking, the ratios this strategy has obtained (especially the Sharpe Ratio) are unheard of, and are exceedingly unlikely to remain THIS favorable. Considering that this strategy realizes gains/losses daily, it can be tempting to continuously increase scaling; don't do this.
Forward 14 Economic Events:
This strategy becomes more lucrative due to major economic events, whether it be from China or Greece. These events significantly move the market and are largely the cause of the gains made thus far in the strategy. Absent these events performance may suffer.
The reason the developer did not turn off trading even though they knew it was out of sync with the market was because they are not trading their own account and do not feel the losses themselves. They make subscriber fees even if the system implodes (for a while at least.) I really wish managers were required, or at least incentivized, to be TOS certified when trading a lot of subscriber accounts as it would surely result in trading models with less risk and more responsible trading behavior so we could sleep easier. Unfortunately, there 19s aren 19t that many managers who are real traders on C2 from what I can see so far.
This is really bad system and what makes it worse is the system developer's complete lack of communication now a days. System is loosing money every month and there is nothing from this guy. I am certain that he is building a new system ( with great back testing results - I must add) that he would try to sell to those who are not burnt by current system. Terrible system and really bad system developer.
I have been a subscriber since May. As the recent reviewer said, it hasn't been going anywhere. That is certainly not uncommon for systems to have their own consolidation before moving again. But, the sub fee of 299 is very steep without having booked any gains. Probably subscribers could hold out until (hopefully) there are better days, but would need to have a fee of $99 rather than $299, or the developer will see many people dropping out.
As for the strategy, I have seen some good gains turn into losses. The system has a hard dollar stop of $1200, which has been hit more frequently these days. But the system has booked some gains, however, the smaller gains vs larger losses will negatively affect the profit factor without some larger gains. Recently, crude has had some good trend days, but the system closes out too early to really get the opportunity to participate in booking some decent days. Without seeing backtest trade results, we can't determine if the system has many long periods of no action, which provides us with a baseline decision on waiting or bailing because of a $299 fee coming out of our account every month.
I made money with this system in November-December of last year and initially wasn't worried when the equity began to go the other direction in January. What made me concerned was when the owner kept introducing new algorithms "with amazing back-testing results". This is called curve-fitting: exactly what I used to do when my own algorithms started not performing as they were supposed to. That's why I'm a subscriber now and not a system developer. The reason I left Emerging S in January (and luckily avoided most of the ensuing pain) is because I seek a vendor who has the maturity and steel-nerves to stay with his system through thick and thin, never tweaking it to suit the unexpected as Keith does. I don't believe Keith will stay with "the original algorithm" because my feeling is that it wasn't very good in the first place. And recent results bear this out.
This system hasn't gone anywhere in almost 4 months.
Normally I can tolerate the break even performance and wait for better times (if they come) but the subscription cost requires Zakum to outperform each month and it hasn't done that is awhile
Really good system, had been using Exllence in it's first instance a few year back.
Chris is a really good manager, and my result are exactly as what you see on the site.
Thank's
Denis