The Spirit of Nicolas Darvas.
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 20.4%
- Max Drawdown
- 29.2%
- Trades
- 3738
- Win Trades
- 36.3%
- Profit Factor
- 1.40
- Win Months
- 59.1%
About this strategy
Combines the art of trading the most explosive breakouts the market has to offer with the science of turtle trader position sizing and risk management.
What to expect:
Every day, I run stock scans that comb through 10,000 stocks to find just one or two that are ready to move right now.
I also use a sophisticated risk management strategy that was developed by William Eckhardt, who taught a group of traders now known as The Turtles.
The system buys strong, liquid US stocks and ETFs, and short sells the weakest. Losses are cut very short, which contributes to a lower win rate.
Frequently asked questions:
Where can I learn more about your strategy?
I send out a newsletter each Sunday that discusses Trend Following trading and my thoughts on the market. By joining my system, you will receive this newsletter at no extra cost.
Does this system need to be auto-traded?
No. Most signals will be sent out after the market has closed, so you should have time to enter the trades manually in the evening or in the morning before the market opens.
Do you short stocks?
Yes. The portfolio of stocks held contains longs and shorts, potentially lowering the correlation to the S&P 500.
Do you use leverage?
Rarely, but yes during strongly trending markets.
Do you use stops?
No, trades are exited based on end of day closing prices.
How has the system performed during backtesting?
My system is not an algorithm or black box. It is a rules based, discretionary strategy that I have developed through 17 years of intensive study.
What will happen during bear markets?
I can short stocks and ETFs, so the system is not dependant on a rising stock market. The system is more likely to struggle during a choppy, range bound market.
What to expect:
Every day, I run stock scans that comb through 10,000 stocks to find just one or two that are ready to move right now.
I also use a sophisticated risk management strategy that was developed by William Eckhardt, who taught a group of traders now known as The Turtles.
The system buys strong, liquid US stocks and ETFs, and short sells the weakest. Losses are cut very short, which contributes to a lower win rate.
Frequently asked questions:
Where can I learn more about your strategy?
I send out a newsletter each Sunday that discusses Trend Following trading and my thoughts on the market. By joining my system, you will receive this newsletter at no extra cost.
Does this system need to be auto-traded?
No. Most signals will be sent out after the market has closed, so you should have time to enter the trades manually in the evening or in the morning before the market opens.
Do you short stocks?
Yes. The portfolio of stocks held contains longs and shorts, potentially lowering the correlation to the S&P 500.
Do you use leverage?
Rarely, but yes during strongly trending markets.
Do you use stops?
No, trades are exited based on end of day closing prices.
How has the system performed during backtesting?
My system is not an algorithm or black box. It is a rules based, discretionary strategy that I have developed through 17 years of intensive study.
What will happen during bear markets?
I can short stocks and ETFs, so the system is not dependant on a rising stock market. The system is more likely to struggle during a choppy, range bound market.
Trend-following Momentum
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 11.4 | -2.7 | 18.0 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 42.4 | ||||||
| 2014 | 17.4 | -2.1 | 0.8 | -2.2 | 0.7 | 6.0 | -6.4 | 5.0 | -7.6 | -3.3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 13.0 |
| 2015 | -4.3 | -0.1 | -9.0 | 2.3 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 16.2 | -7.0 | 7.4 | -4.7 | -1.2 | 0.9 | 28.1 |
| 2016 | 2.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -2.3 | -2.6 | 7.4 | -2.2 | -2.2 | 2.0 | 32.1 | -7.6 | 21.5 |
| 2017 | 4.8 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.6 | -2.9 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 68.5 |
| 2018 | 8.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 10.4 | 3.4 | -1.9 | 8.2 | 2.6 | -10.3 | -1.4 | 1.3 | 21.3 |
| 2019 | -0.4 | 4.1 | -0.8 | -2.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 | -6.2 | -1.4 | -1.1 | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| 2020 | 0.6 | -2.7 | 4.4 | -4.9 | -1.8 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 9.5 | -6.8 | -2.2 | 1.1 | 18.3 | 31.8 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.9 | 3.0 | -6.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -3.6 | 1.1 | -5.7 |
| 2022 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 8.6 | -1.1 | 7.0 | -3.5 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 0.3 | -1.9 | 1.6 | 16.8 |
| 2023 | -0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 2.3 | -0.7 | -2.8 | 7.3 |
| 2024 | -2.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | -4.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -11.3 | 14.2 | -3.1 | 7.4 | -2.0 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 3.7 | -11.8 | -4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | -2.9 | 29.2 |
| 2026 | 6.2 | -1.4 | -2.3 | 2.5 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 5.5 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 7/7/2013 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $40,000 |
| Age | 160 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 3738 |
| # Profitable | 1358 |
| % Profitable | 36.3% |
| Avg trade duration | 13.3 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 29.2% |
| drawdown period | Sept 08, 2014 - March 26, 2015 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 20.4% |
| Avg win | $3,162 |
| Avg loss | $1,443 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.42 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 |
| Sortino Ratio | 1.08 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.96 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.04 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 368.2% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | 684.3% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 20.4% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.2% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 20.8% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 2.1% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.1% |
| Short Options - Percent Covered | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.9% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 66.5% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 36.5% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 16.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 8.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 5.5% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.5% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.5% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 764 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 450 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 1 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,443 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $3,164 |
| # Winners | 1357 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $3,434,637 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $4,293,905 |
| Num Months Winners | 96 |
| # Losers | 2380 |
| % Winners | 36.3% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 248836 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 159 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 36813.60 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 613.56 |
| Avg Trade Length | 25.60 |
| Last Trade Ago | 7 |
Leverage
| Daily leverage (average) | 1.92 |
|---|---|
| Daily leverage (max) | 13.66 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0.05 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.05 |
| Treynor Index | 1.01 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 62.64 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 6.06 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 21.72 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 28.36 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 6.86 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.27 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.02 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.19 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.19 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.98 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.98 |
| df | 149 |
| t | 3.48 |
| p | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.55 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.41 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.54 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.06 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.70 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.34 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.15 |
| Upside SD | 0.18 |
| Downside SD | 0.09 |
| N nonnegative terms | 88 |
| N negative terms | 62 |
| N of observations | 150 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.11 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.19 |
| SD of predictor | 0.15 |
| SD of criterion | 0.19 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.05 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.07 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.18 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 148 |
| t(b) | 0.65 |
| p(b) | 0.47 |
| t(a) | 3.27 |
| p(a) | 0.37 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.14 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.28 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.07 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.29 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 2.77 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.18 |
| Mean | 0.17 |
| SD | 0.19 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.91 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.91 |
| df | 149 |
| t | 3.23 |
| p | 0.34 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.35 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.35 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.47 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.78 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.40 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.33 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.16 |
| Upside SD | 0.17 |
| Downside SD | 0.10 |
| N nonnegative terms | 88 |
| N negative terms | 62 |
| N of observations | 150 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.10 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.17 |
| SD of predictor | 0.15 |
| SD of criterion | 0.19 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.06 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.08 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.16 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 148 |
| t(b) | 0.74 |
| p(b) | 0.47 |
| t(a) | 3.04 |
| p(a) | 0.38 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.13 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.28 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.27 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 2.26 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.16 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.09 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.05 |
| Mean | 0.19 |
| SD | 0.20 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.96 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.96 |
| df | 3280 |
| t | 3.40 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.41 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.41 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.51 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.42 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 8.17 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.10 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.91 |
| Upside SD | 0.15 |
| Downside SD | 0.13 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1819 |
| N negative terms | 1462 |
| N of observations | 3281 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.11 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.19 |
| SD of predictor | 0.17 |
| SD of criterion | 0.20 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.03 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.04 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.19 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 3279 |
| t(b) | 1.96 |
| p(b) | 0.02 |
| t(a) | 3.32 |
| p(a) | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.00 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.08 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.08 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.30 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 4.87 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.19 |
| Mean | 0.17 |
| SD | 0.20 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.86 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.86 |
| df | 3280 |
| t | 3.05 |
| p | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.42 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.41 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.25 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 7.94 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.09 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.92 |
| Upside SD | 0.14 |
| Downside SD | 0.14 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1819 |
| N negative terms | 1462 |
| N of observations | 3281 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.10 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.17 |
| SD of predictor | 0.17 |
| SD of criterion | 0.20 |
| Covariance | 0.00 |
| r | 0.04 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.04 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.17 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 3279 |
| t(b) | 2.03 |
| p(b) | 0.02 |
| t(a) | 2.98 |
| p(a) | 0.00 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.00 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.08 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.28 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 4.25 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.17 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.07 |
| SD | 0.15 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.47 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.46 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.33 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.24 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.24 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.82 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 10.37 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.86 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.80 |
| Upside SD | 0.12 |
| Downside SD | 0.08 |
| N nonnegative terms | 61 |
| N negative terms | 70 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.23 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.07 |
| SD of predictor | 0.17 |
| SD of criterion | 0.15 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.21 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.19 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.03 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.02 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 2.48 |
| p(b) | 0.37 |
| t(a) | 0.13 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.43 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.37 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.03 |
| Mean | 0.06 |
| SD | 0.15 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.40 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.39 |
| df | 130 |
| t | 0.28 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -2.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 3.17 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -2.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 3.17 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.69 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 10.23 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.86 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.80 |
| Upside SD | 0.12 |
| Downside SD | 0.08 |
| N nonnegative terms | 61 |
| N negative terms | 70 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.22 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.06 |
| SD of predictor | 0.17 |
| SD of criterion | 0.15 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.21 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.19 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.02 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.02 |
| DF error | 129 |
| t(b) | 2.48 |
| p(b) | 0.37 |
| t(a) | 0.09 |
| p(a) | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.04 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.33 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.38 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.42 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.31 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.02 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 150 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.86 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.99 |
| Median | 1.01 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.04 |
| Maximum | 1.24 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.96 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.09 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 3 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.89 |
| Number of outliers high | 6 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.18 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.35 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.04 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.19 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.04 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Number of observations | 3281 |
| Minimum | 0.91 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.01 |
| Maximum | 1.11 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.01 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 150 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.97 |
| Number of outliers high | 159 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.30 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.02 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.16 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.02 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 0.98 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1.00 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.04 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.99 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.01 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.01 |
| Number outliers low | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.02 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.98 |
| Number of outliers high | 6 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.05 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.56 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.12 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.01 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 24 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.02 |
| Median | 0.04 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.08 |
| Maximum | 0.19 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.06 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.13 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.07 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.04 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.19 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.07 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.14 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.16 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.39 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.15 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.23 |
| Number of observations | 87 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.03 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.07 |
| Maximum | 0.23 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.05 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.12 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 3 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.03 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.21 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.01 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.12 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.15 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.09 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.11 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.13 |
| Number of observations | 6 |
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.02 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.04 |
| Maximum | 0.06 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.01 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.05 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.03 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -432772000 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 199 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.2% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.89 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.22 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.14 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.76 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 2.38 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.89 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.22 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.96 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.90 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 9.04 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.09 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.09 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 1.56 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 1.69 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 4.92 |
Trading record
Placed 8408 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YANG | short | 1532 | May 1, 2025 | Aug 31, 2026 | $20,968 |
| KOLD | short | 2270 | May 1, 2025 | Aug 31, 2026 | ($8,109) |
| TSLQ | short | 274 | May 1, 2025 | Aug 31, 2026 | $16,197 |
| UCO | short | 4425 | May 1, 2025 | Aug 31, 2026 | ($111,825) |
| SVIX | short | 4032 | May 1, 2025 | Aug 31, 2026 | ($60,969) |
| BOIL | short | 300 | Apr 21, 2025 | May 1, 2025 | ($1,371) |
| SVIX | short | 2624 | Apr 21, 2025 | Apr 23, 2025 | ($2,372) |
| NVDL | short | 454 | Apr 21, 2025 | Apr 23, 2025 | ($1,662) |
| ETHT | short | 3370 | Apr 21, 2025 | Apr 23, 2025 | ($2,755) |
| SOXL | short | 2060 | Apr 21, 2025 | Apr 23, 2025 | ($4,588) |
| TSLL | short | 1410 | Apr 21, 2025 | Apr 23, 2025 | ($2,532) |
| UCO | short | 1200 | Apr 9, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 | ($3,715) |
| BITX | short | 14000 | Mar 13, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 | $53,455 |
| TFLO | long | 45000 | Apr 7, 2025 | Apr 9, 2025 | ($8) |
| SOXL | short | 5718 | Mar 28, 2025 | Apr 7, 2025 | $33,347 |
| LABU | short | 1000 | Mar 28, 2025 | Apr 7, 2025 | $28,637 |
| IEI | long | 6000 | Apr 4, 2025 | Apr 7, 2025 | ($3,500) |
| GLL | short | 25000 | Mar 17, 2025 | Apr 7, 2025 | $243 |
| TAIL | long | 20000 | Apr 3, 2025 | Apr 4, 2025 | $16,485 |
| MSTZ | short | 8000 | Apr 2, 2025 | Apr 4, 2025 | ($20,070) |
| XLU | long | 1000 | Apr 3, 2025 | Apr 4, 2025 | ($1,785) |
| EWZ | long | 5000 | Apr 3, 2025 | Apr 4, 2025 | ($7,905) |
| SLV | long | 20000 | Mar 12, 2025 | Apr 3, 2025 | ($9,408) |
| MSTZ | short | 2500 | Mar 17, 2025 | Mar 24, 2025 | $10,833 |
| TSLL | short | 5000 | Mar 18, 2025 | Mar 24, 2025 | ($15,355) |
| GDX | long | 2000 | Mar 20, 2025 | Mar 24, 2025 | ($1,425) |
| YANG | short | 2500 | Mar 17, 2025 | Mar 20, 2025 | ($6,755) |
| GLD | long | 1200 | Mar 11, 2025 | Mar 14, 2025 | $5,183 |
| KO | long | 738 | Mar 10, 2025 | Mar 11, 2025 | ($1,186) |
| TIGO | long | 1324 | Mar 10, 2025 | Mar 11, 2025 | $578 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.