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Zakum

Futures · Started Nov 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.7%
Max Drawdown
20.3%
Trades
172
Win Trades
52.9%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
4.9%

About this strategy

Mechanical, Crude Oil, intraday position trading system between 3:00 a.m. ET and 14:30 p.m ET.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201432.018.456.3
20154.56.7-5.19.92.4-4.7-12.42.3-3.00.00.00.0-1.3
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/1/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age144 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades172
# Profitable91
% Profitable52.9%
Avg trade duration5.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.3%
drawdown periodMay 11, 2015 - Sept 28, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)3.7%
Avg win$881
Avg loss$758

Ratios

W:L ratio1.31
Sharpe Ratio0.22
Sortino Ratio0.38
Calmar Ratio1.64

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life279.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-223.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity25.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated95.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$758
Avg Win$881
# Winners91
Sum Trade PL (losers)$61,430
Sum Trade PL (winners)$80,199
Num Months Winners7
# Losers81
% Winners52.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table143

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)327.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.45
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago3991

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index59.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.92
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.73
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.47
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.39
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.22
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df28
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio2.84
Upside Potential Ratio4.08
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms21
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error27
t(b)-0.60
p(b)0.72
t(a)1.52
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.20
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.84
df28
t1.35
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio2.38
Upside Potential Ratio3.61
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms21
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error27
t(b)-0.56
p(b)0.71
t(a)1.43
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.21
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.22
df645
t1.92
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio2.19
Upside Potential Ratio6.99
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms113
N negative terms533
N of observations646
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error644
t(b)-0.14
p(b)0.55
t(a)1.92
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-89.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.19
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.15
df645
t1.81
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.40
Sortino ratio2.01
Upside Potential Ratio6.78
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms113
N negative terms533
N of observations646
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error644
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-102.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.00
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6812649744498688
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.38462842342494e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations29
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations646
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low94
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high113
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.14
Median0.14
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-443636064
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)140
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.10
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 259 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL X5long1Sep 28, 2015Sep 28, 2015($758)
QCL X5long1Sep 23, 2015Sep 23, 2015($2,228)
QCL X5short1Sep 22, 2015Sep 22, 2015($158)
QCL X5short1Sep 21, 2015Sep 21, 2015($1,248)
QCL V5short1Sep 16, 2015Sep 16, 2015($1,448)
QCL V5short1Sep 15, 2015Sep 15, 2015($188)
QCL V5long1Sep 14, 2015Sep 14, 2015($608)
QCL V5long1Sep 10, 2015Sep 10, 2015$1,032
QCL V5short1Sep 9, 2015Sep 9, 2015$1,212
QCL V5long1Sep 8, 2015Sep 8, 2015$1,122
QCL V5long1Sep 3, 2015Sep 3, 2015$682
QCL V5long1Sep 2, 2015Sep 2, 2015$1,692
QCL V5short1Aug 27, 2015Aug 27, 2015($2,638)
QCL V5short1Aug 26, 2015Aug 26, 2015$992
QCL V5long1Aug 25, 2015Aug 25, 2015$482
QCL V5long1Aug 24, 2015Aug 24, 2015($768)
QCL V5long1Aug 20, 2015Aug 20, 2015$772
QCL V5short1Aug 19, 2015Aug 19, 2015$1,692
QCL U5long1Aug 14, 2015Aug 14, 2015($158)
QCL U5long1Aug 12, 2015Aug 12, 2015($428)
QCL U5short1Aug 10, 2015Aug 10, 2015($1,138)
QCL U5short1Aug 7, 2015Aug 7, 2015$382
QCL U5short1Aug 5, 2015Aug 5, 2015$1,072
QCL U5short1Aug 4, 2015Aug 4, 2015($8)
QCL U5short1Aug 3, 2015Aug 3, 2015$952
QCL U5long1Jul 31, 2015Jul 31, 2015($708)
QCL U5short1Jul 29, 2015Jul 29, 2015($1,023)
QCL U5short1Jul 28, 2015Jul 28, 2015($572)
QCL U5long1Jul 27, 2015Jul 27, 2015($229)
QCL U5long1Jul 24, 2015Jul 24, 2015($1,177)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.