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BluStar3X

Stocks · Started Apr 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
77
Win Trades
68.8%
Profit Factor
0
Win Months
14.6%

About this strategy

Elliott Wave, Gann Cycles, Market Indicators, Support/Resistance, Charting Techniques, Pattern Recognition, Astrology

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20158.19.819.5-9.241.0-10.8-10.41.5-2.943.1
201615.35.7-10.0-10.8-36.3-5.2-49.3-23.0-9.510.8-33.4-26.2-88.6
2017-27.6-10.2-17.6-4.2-15.3-3.5-10.3-0.3-10.0-9.8-3.9-6.3-72.6
20183.88.03.8-5.5-4.50.2-4.0-2.7-2.311.3-4.813.615.6
2019-11.6-3.6-1.5-3.00.10.01.4-3.2-2.8-1.9-0.4-23.9
2020-0.5-0.119.0-3.8-4.61.3-4.5-1.7-0.3-0.7-3.1-0.1-1.1
20211.5-2.1-1.5-0.6-5841.70.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.0-0.0-5690.0
2022-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2023-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-1525.70.00.00.00.0-0.00.0
20240.00.00.0-417.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-403.30.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/15/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age139 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades77
# Profitable53
% Profitable68.8%
Avg trade duration53.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMay 01, 2021 - Sept 01, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$1,017
Avg loss$958,833

Ratios

W:L ratio0
Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Sortino Ratio-0.37
Calmar Ratio-0.98

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life263.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-92111.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$958,833
Avg Win$1,017
# Winners53
Sum Trade PL (losers)$23,011,998
Sum Trade PL (winners)$53,894
Num Months Winners20
# Losers24
% Winners68.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table74

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)76337.41
Avg Position Time (hrs)1272.29
Avg Trade Length53
Last Trade Ago3793

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.79
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.07
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.06
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-1.01
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)24.49
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.26
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats98.75
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.77
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.00
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-111.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.80
SD0.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.94
df30
t-1.56
p0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Sortino ratio-1.00
Upside Potential Ratio0.50
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-1.20
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.80
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms21
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.80
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.83
Covariance-0.06
r-0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.40
Mean Square Error0.66
DF error29
t(b)-1.54
p(b)0.93
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)0.94
Jensen alpha (a)-0.40
Mean-3.95
SD5.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.72
df30
t-1.19
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.51
Sortino ratio-0.74
Upside Potential Ratio0.07
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-4.32
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD5.36
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms21
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion-3.95
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion5.33
Covariance-0.28
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-4.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.09
Mean Square Error28.19
DF error29
t(b)-1.12
p(b)0.87
t(a)-0.57
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)-2.09
VaR(95%)0.94
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.97
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.55
Mean-0.88
SD0.80
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.11
df686
t-1.79
p0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.11
Sortino ratio-1.23
Upside Potential Ratio2.32
Upside part of mean1.67
Downside part of mean-2.55
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.72
N nonnegative terms215
N negative terms472
N of observations687
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion-0.88
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.80
Covariance-0.04
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.72
Mean Square Error0.63
DF error685
t(b)-3.57
p(b)1.00
t(a)-1.46
p(a)0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)2.74
Jensen alpha (a)-0.72
Mean-3.89
SD5.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.73
df686
t-1.19
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.48
Sortino ratio-0.74
Upside Potential Ratio0.31
Upside part of mean1.61
Downside part of mean-5.50
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD5.29
N nonnegative terms215
N negative terms472
N of observations687
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion-3.89
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion5.30
Covariance-0.17
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.19
Mean Square Error27.86
DF error685
t(b)-2.55
p(b)0.99
t(a)-0.97
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.23
Treynor index (mean / b)2.57
Jensen alpha (a)-3.19
VaR(95%)0.43
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.50
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6798068330528768
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.03754991578568e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.91
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.66
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.13
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.44
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.83
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.46
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.87
Number of observations687
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low104
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high87
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.20
Quartile 10.40
Median0.60
Quartile 30.80
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.20
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.40
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.08
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.40
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.55
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-404549760
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1949
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.98
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 140 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVXY long750Apr 7, 2016Apr 8, 2016($553)
UVXY long340Apr 5, 2016Apr 6, 2016$962
SVXY long750Apr 1, 2016Apr 5, 2016($1,678)
SVXY long800Mar 29, 2016Mar 29, 2016$1,131
UVXY long320Mar 21, 2016Mar 22, 2016$682
SVXY long800Mar 15, 2016Mar 17, 2016$1,459
UVXY long250Mar 11, 2016Mar 15, 2016($118)
UVXY long200Mar 9, 2016Mar 10, 2016$1,016
SVXY long800Mar 8, 2016Mar 9, 2016($300)
UVXY long200Feb 16, 2016Mar 8, 2016($16,383)
UVXY long200Feb 10, 2016Feb 10, 2016$3,265
SVXY long1400Feb 9, 2016Feb 9, 2016$1,284
UVXY long178Feb 8, 2016Feb 9, 2016$493
UVXY long180Feb 2, 2016Feb 5, 2016$3,916
SPXS long2000Jan 25, 2016Feb 2, 2016($1,244)
SVXY long1200Jan 15, 2016Jan 25, 2016$1,009
SVXY long1000Jan 13, 2016Jan 14, 2016$909
SVXY long900Jan 12, 2016Jan 12, 2016$1,030
SVXY long900Jan 11, 2016Jan 12, 2016$3,375
UVXY long200Jan 4, 2016Jan 8, 2016$2,701
UVXY long240Dec 22, 2015Dec 31, 2015$199
SVXY long600Dec 21, 2015Dec 22, 2015$1,141
SPXS long1800Dec 17, 2015Dec 18, 2015$1,993
SPXS long1800Dec 15, 2015Dec 15, 2015($257)
SVXY long600Dec 4, 2015Dec 15, 2015($3,884)
SPXS long2300Nov 19, 2015Nov 30, 2015($3)
SPXS long2300Nov 19, 2015Nov 19, 2015($166)
SPXS long2300Nov 17, 2015Nov 18, 2015$110
SPXL long460Nov 12, 2015Nov 16, 2015($246)
SPXS long2300Oct 5, 2015Nov 12, 2015($5,982)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.