Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

DailyMiner

Futures · Started Apr 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.5%
Max Drawdown
25.4%
Trades
957
Win Trades
53.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
6.7%

About this strategy

We are trading futures with the help of advanced machine learning techniques.

We have created a portfolio of trading systems that have made steady profits on historical data in both bull and bear markets. Out of these systems we choose the best ones for DailyMiner.

DailyMiner uses up to seven individual systems, hence it takes positions in up to seven instruments at once. The instruments that it trades will change from time to time when we replace systems.

By trading many systems at once, the resulting equity curve should in theory be smoother and more robust than if we were trading only one system. If one of our systems has a bad trade, its losses should hopefully be cancelled out by the winnings of the others. Note that prior to October 2013, only E-mini SP500 futures were traded.

Each individual system has a built-in stop-loss at 3-6% of instrument value. We try to choose our positions in such a way that it minimizes the chance of more than one stop-loss being triggered at once.

The systems do not use any tricks to artificially improve the equity curve. They do not add to losing positions or do any other kind of scaling in and out of the trades. No pyramiding, no martingale.

Please do not subscribe if you cannot handle the drawdowns. We frequently see some subscribers causing themselves losses or limiting their profits by unsubscribing when their first drawdown comes. If you decide to subscribe, we recommend that you make a commitment for at least three months and do not try to increase your returns by overleveraging.

The regular subscription price is $149/month but we are giving a discount right now. We will sometimes have free trials.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-9.2-2.6-11.6
2017-0.7-0.60.5-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.3-6.51.1-8.6
2018-15.98.15.00.4-1.9-5.719.0-12.88.273.70.00.073.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/15/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age163 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades957
# Profitable514
% Profitable53.7%
Avg trade duration6.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown25.4%
drawdown periodDec 02, 2016 - Jan 30, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)2.5%
Avg win$797
Avg loss$862

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio0.16
Sortino Ratio0.63
Calmar Ratio0.86

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life393.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-357.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity23.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss66.5%
Chance of 20% account loss31.0%
Chance of 30% account loss4.5%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$862
Avg Win$797
# Winners514
Sum Trade PL (losers)$381,670
Sum Trade PL (winners)$409,772
Num Months Winners9
# Losers443
% Winners53.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table119

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)9560.23
Avg Position Time (hrs)159.34
Avg Trade Length6.60
Last Trade Ago2888

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index2.31

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades51.70
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.23
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats49.45
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats44.16
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df35
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio1.83
Upside Potential Ratio2.95
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms27
N of observations36
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance-0.04
r-0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error34
t(b)-1.86
p(b)0.96
t(a)1.44
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.12
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df35
t0.61
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms27
N of observations36
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.03
r-0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error34
t(b)-1.97
p(b)0.97
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.19
SD0.44
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df793
t0.75
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio1.69
Upside Potential Ratio4.52
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.43
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms742
N of observations794
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.44
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error792
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)59.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.12
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df793
t0.59
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.47
Sortino ratio1.02
Upside Potential Ratio3.82
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.33
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms52
N negative terms742
N of observations794
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error792
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)24.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6822244701437952
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.02955082248788e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations36
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.74
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations794
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.71
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high52
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.12
Median0.13
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.09
Median0.14
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-420986048
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)424
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.91
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.68
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 784 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ Z8short1Oct 11, 2018Oct 11, 2018$32
NQ Z8long1Oct 8, 2018Oct 11, 2018($7,903)
ME Z8short1Oct 4, 2018Oct 11, 2018($371)
ES Z8long1Oct 4, 2018Oct 11, 2018($7,133)
QO Z8short1Oct 3, 2018Oct 11, 2018($258)
NQ Z8short1Oct 4, 2018Oct 8, 2018$2,602
TY Z8short1Oct 3, 2018Oct 8, 2018$273
ES Z8short1Oct 3, 2018Oct 4, 2018$717
QM X8short1Oct 3, 2018Oct 4, 2018$742
ES Z8short1Sep 30, 2018Oct 2, 2018$67
TY Z8long1Sep 26, 2018Oct 2, 2018($55)
QM X8long1Sep 30, 2018Oct 1, 2018$1,430
ME Z8short1Sep 27, 2018Sep 30, 2018$205
QM X8long1Sep 24, 2018Sep 25, 2018($146)
ME Z8long1Sep 23, 2018Sep 25, 2018$98
ES Z8short1Sep 23, 2018Sep 24, 2018($46)
QM X8long1Sep 19, 2018Sep 23, 2018$317
NQ U8long1Sep 9, 2018Sep 21, 2018$2,907
ME Z8long1Sep 18, 2018Sep 19, 2018($64)
QM X8short1Sep 18, 2018Sep 19, 2018($708)
QO Z8short1Sep 11, 2018Sep 18, 2018($8)
ME U8short1Aug 20, 2018Sep 17, 2018($1,046)
ES U8long1Sep 9, 2018Sep 16, 2018$1,330
QO Z8long1Aug 21, 2018Sep 11, 2018$30
NQ U8long1Aug 15, 2018Sep 6, 2018$1,537
TY U8long1Aug 27, 2018Sep 2, 2018($24)
ES U8short1Aug 19, 2018Aug 20, 2018($196)
ME U8long1Aug 15, 2018Aug 20, 2018$873
ES U8long1Aug 15, 2018Aug 19, 2018$1,580
ME U8short1Aug 14, 2018Aug 15, 2018$17

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.