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e24 SP500 Emini

Futures · Started Aug 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
21.3%
Max Drawdown
40.0%
Trades
770
Win Trades
40.6%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
9.7%

About this strategy

e24 SP500 Emini is a 100% automatic transaction system. The system uses advanced logic, proprietary indicators and the most effective for automatic systems tics charts. Range charts guarantee the most successful system's parameters. Each open position is always closed before the weekend (Friday session). Thanks to that security policy there are no gaps of open at the beginning of a new week so your funds are much more safer.

System was developed based on historical tick data from January 2007 to January 2014 and then it was tested until September 2014 with real tick data before it could be launched on Collective2.

Detail historical and real results you can find on our website:

http://www.enigma24.com/sp500_historical.html

e24 SP500 Emini characteristic:
Market: Globex, S&P 500 E-mini
Symbol: ES/@ES ($50 per point, one tick = $12.5)
Trading hours: 5:00 am - 4:15 pm (Eastern Standard Time)
System type: short term trading (average few trades per week)
Position: long/short
Pyramid: no (always one contract)
Stop: dynamic stop
Signals are sent to C2 via Ninja Trader platform

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-2.50.631.74.07.144.0
2015-4.716.4-7.5-9.70.2-6.45.037.97.014.30.40.154.5
2016-5.8-5.7-13.0-1.810.4-19.6-18.3-2.210.5-0.40.00.0-40.8
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/24/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age146 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades770
# Profitable313
% Profitable40.6%
Avg trade duration11.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown40.0%
drawdown periodNov 03, 2015 - June 27, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)21.3%
Avg win$489
Avg loss$293

Ratios

W:L ratio1.14
Sharpe Ratio0.09
Sortino Ratio0.13
Calmar Ratio1.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life285.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)36.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)21.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity77.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss49.0%
Chance of 20% account loss18.0%
Chance of 30% account loss5.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)816
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)621

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$293
Avg Win$489
# Winners313
Sum Trade PL (losers)$134,110
Sum Trade PL (winners)$152,995
Num Months Winners14
# Losers457
% Winners40.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table145

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)667.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)11.12
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago3630

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.51

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades14.09
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.45
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.52
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df22
t1.93
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.82
Sortino ratio3.49
Upside Potential Ratio5.26
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms9
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion0.52
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance-0.01
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.53
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error21
t(b)-0.88
p(b)0.62
t(a)1.94
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.53
Mean0.45
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df22
t1.79
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.71
Sortino ratio2.86
Upside Potential Ratio4.62
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms9
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error21
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.60
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.46
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.64
df672
t2.30
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.05
Sortino ratio2.64
Upside Potential Ratio10.85
Upside part of mean1.90
Downside part of mean-1.44
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms354
N negative terms319
N of observations673
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error671
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.28
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)2.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
Mean0.42
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.51
df672
t2.11
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.91
Sortino ratio2.38
Upside Potential Ratio10.52
Upside part of mean1.87
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms354
N negative terms319
N of observations673
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.42
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.42
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error671
t(b)2.53
p(b)0.01
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)2.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.42
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.22
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.89
df171
t-0.64
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio-1.15
Upside Potential Ratio7.01
Upside part of mean1.32
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms82
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error170
t(b)3.90
p(b)0.36
t(a)-1.02
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
Mean-0.25
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.01
df171
t-0.72
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.77
Sortino ratio-1.28
Upside Potential Ratio6.80
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms90
N negative terms82
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.36
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error170
t(b)3.96
p(b)0.35
t(a)-1.09
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.36
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.97
Median1.05
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations673
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high39
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations172
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.09
Median0.15
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.16
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.15
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations32
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.07
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)237
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.75
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.59
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.72
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.77
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.68
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.54
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.72
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.68

Trading record

Placed 932 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U6short1Jun 29, 2016Sep 21, 2016($4,346)
ES U6long3Jun 23, 2016Jun 29, 2016($1,399)
ES U6short1Jun 23, 2016Jun 23, 2016($171)
ES U6long1Jun 23, 2016Jun 23, 2016($421)
ES U6short1Jun 23, 2016Jun 23, 2016($83)
ES U6short1Jun 22, 2016Jun 22, 2016($46)
ES U6long1Jun 21, 2016Jun 22, 2016($33)
ES U6short1Jun 21, 2016Jun 21, 2016($333)
ES U6long1Jun 21, 2016Jun 21, 2016($183)
ES U6short1Jun 20, 2016Jun 21, 2016($421)
ES U6long1Jun 20, 2016Jun 20, 2016($33)
ES U6short1Jun 20, 2016Jun 20, 2016($71)
ES U6long1Jun 16, 2016Jun 17, 2016$105
ES U6short1Jun 15, 2016Jun 16, 2016$842
ES U6long1Jun 15, 2016Jun 15, 2016($646)
ES U6short1Jun 15, 2016Jun 15, 2016($333)
ES U6short1Jun 14, 2016Jun 14, 2016($321)
ES U6short1Jun 13, 2016Jun 13, 2016($258)
ES M6short1Jun 10, 2016Jun 10, 2016$92
ES M6long1Jun 10, 2016Jun 10, 2016($521)
ES M6long1Jun 6, 2016Jun 10, 2016$192
ES M6long1Jun 1, 2016Jun 3, 2016$505
ES M6long1May 30, 2016May 31, 2016($371)
ES M6long1May 27, 2016May 27, 2016$267
ES M6long1May 23, 2016May 26, 2016$1,780
ES M6long1May 19, 2016May 20, 2016$642
ES M6short1May 18, 2016May 19, 2016$342
ES M6long1May 18, 2016May 18, 2016($158)
ES M6short1May 18, 2016May 18, 2016$117
ES M6long1May 18, 2016May 18, 2016($146)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.