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EXLENCE II

Futures · Started Oct 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.9%
Max Drawdown
20.3%
Trades
825
Win Trades
40.8%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
8.5%

About this strategy

EXLENCE II trades a basket of 12 U.S. futures markets (in energies, metals, financials, grains, softs and meats).

Important Information About This System:

-- The EXLENCE II system can have trades with significant open profits that subsequently lose back all of the open profits and possibly turn into losing trades.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-0.12.6-11.1-8.9
20152.012.6-1.75.9-5.028.83.76.3-4.6-8.2-3.37.546.7
2016-7.63.7-4.316.216.926.2-5.6-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.048.4
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/26/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$250,000
Age144 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades825
# Profitable337
% Profitable40.8%
Avg trade duration3.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.3%
drawdown periodSept 03, 2015 - Nov 23, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)5.9%
Avg win$3,909
Avg loss$2,078

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio0.38
Sortino Ratio0.69
Calmar Ratio1.53

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life289.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-194.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,078
Avg Win$3,909
# Winners337
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,014,160
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,317,370
Num Months Winners12
# Losers488
% Winners40.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table143

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4618.70
Avg Position Time (hrs)76.98
Avg Trade Length3.20
Last Trade Ago3684

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-1.36

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.08
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.14
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.60
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.11
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.29
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.08
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df45
t1.53
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio2.93
Upside Potential Ratio4.47
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms35
N of observations46
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.01
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error44
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean0.18
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df45
t1.45
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.74
Sortino ratio2.40
Upside Potential Ratio3.93
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms35
N of observations46
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.01
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error44
t(b)-0.69
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.58
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.91
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.19
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df1011
t2.34
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio2.29
Upside Potential Ratio8.24
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms216
N negative terms796
N of observations1012
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1010
t(b)-0.78
p(b)0.51
t(a)2.39
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.18
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df1011
t2.21
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio2.12
Upside Potential Ratio8.05
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms216
N negative terms796
N of observations1012
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1010
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.51
t(a)2.26
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6805125498667008
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)9.60720582591091e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations46
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations1012
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low227
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high217
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.97
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-462962656
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)81
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.32
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.90
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.87
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1438 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QNG U6long8Jul 28, 2016Jul 29, 2016$12,336
QHO U6short3Jul 28, 2016Jul 29, 2016$388
QGC Z6long1Jul 26, 2016Jul 29, 2016$2,942
CT Z6long5Jul 29, 2016Jul 29, 2016$510
S X6long4Jul 28, 2016Jul 29, 2016$3,731
HE V6short9Jul 26, 2016Jul 29, 2016$12,938
TY U6long12Jul 25, 2016Jul 29, 2016$1,032
CT Z6long11Jul 26, 2016Jul 28, 2016$517
QGC Q6long1Jul 21, 2016Jul 26, 2016($358)
QHO U6long2Jul 20, 2016Jul 26, 2016($6,963)
HE V6short9Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016($52)
KC U6long2Jul 19, 2016Jul 22, 2016($5,341)
QNG Q6short5Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016($4,430)
QHG U6short10Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016($5,330)
CT Z6long8Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016($2,944)
SB V6long24Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016$614
QNG Q6long8Jul 21, 2016Jul 21, 2016($2,804)
QCL U6long5Jul 20, 2016Jul 21, 2016($4,490)
QGC Q6short6Jul 20, 2016Jul 21, 2016$1,102
QNG Q6short6Jul 19, 2016Jul 21, 2016$132
QHG U6short6Jul 19, 2016Jul 21, 2016($3,498)
HE Q6short12Jul 19, 2016Jul 20, 2016($2,976)
QGC Q6long3Jul 18, 2016Jul 20, 2016($1,674)
QNG Q6long7Jul 19, 2016Jul 19, 2016($4,676)
CT Z6long11Jul 18, 2016Jul 19, 2016($5,743)
QCL U6short9Jul 17, 2016Jul 19, 2016$918
QHO Q6short3Jul 18, 2016Jul 19, 2016($1,985)
QNG Q6short4Jul 18, 2016Jul 19, 2016($1,872)
QNG Q6long11Jul 15, 2016Jul 18, 2016($3,608)
SB V6long12Jul 18, 2016Jul 18, 2016($4,576)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.