I think Jim has an obvious option for keeping all subscribers and potentially attracting others.
The model account is still big enough to be split to two systems, one with intra-day signals for autotraders and one with the current EOD style for other subscribers.
It seems that with the current style in the current market the system can't make money or at least keep the profits.
Since my subscription is nearing it's end I don't plan to renew it unless Jim introduces intra-day signals (or changes the market but is unlikely :-)).
My rating reflects my current impression. In the past ETF Timer was exceptionally good.
I have been a subscriber to the system since April. I have been trading the Nasdaq 100 for a long time and I will say that I have been unable to produce the consistent returns that this system has. Couple of observations: The system seems a little sluggish reacting to trend changes. Sometimes there is a clear change of trend and the system will close the trade and wait for 3-4 days and open the next trade. I think the draw downs can be minimized by trading more frequently and going immediately from long to short or vice versa. Capital allocation is outstanding. 20% usually to open and max at 55% considering this is a leveraged fund. Keep in mind the system is still up 10% for the year and outperforming the market.
I've been a subscriber since May 1st. The latest closed out trade put me slightly in the red now which is not a reason for me to give up yet. I think it's just been the summer doldrums for the ETF Timer and the market as well. Big money "sold in May and went away" and market volume has dried up since. Hopefully the big money and trading volume will come back to the market after Labor Day and the timer will profit again. I'm being patient. But, I'll have to give it a fair rating due to the flat performance I've experienced over the past 4 months.
Although the system almost had five consecutive loosing hands since early June, the entry points seem useful. I replicated his entries, but closed positions when profit was reasonable, including the latest trading that I closed my positions on 08/30. Therefore, among his last five trades, I had three winning hands. The exit indicator the developer is using seems not sensitive enough in the current market.
This was an excellent system and then a change was made. In January, the developer dropped intra day trade releases and now they are all end of day. The problem is that drawdowns have been enhanced and profits diminished. A 4 month drawdown tells me something may be wrong. Maybe not, but I have this feeling it needs to be looked into by the developer. When I look at the 2010 results, I have to ask, why are you charging $97/mo instead of $49/mo. Only time will tell!
Im afraid Jim has completely lost the plot. His indicators work in a strongly trending market, like in 2008 and 2009, but they completely fail in a non-trending market. Instead of adapting to market change, Jim stubbornly executes is trades and incurs loss after loss. He fails to secure profits when they are on the table via stops, and he now has the third trade at his hands in as many months where a substantial profit is turning into a loss. ETF timer looked for a while, but unfortunately, it will go down in C2 history as yet another system that worked for a while and then faltered
This used to be a good system when it executed trades anytime during the day. Since it went to a beginning and end of day system, it has lost many chances to take profits at obvious times - like the bounce off SPX 1040. Losing faith Jim - and money.
Exactly. A drawdown is to be expected in any trading system. But a drawdown that lasts from Memorial Day to Labor Day gets depressing. It will be hard to renew the subscription when it comes due this next time.
The current drawdown is not larger in magnitude than the max DD since inception. However, it is much longer than any previous drawdown period. As such the historical equity curve is not very helpful since the system's performance is doing something it hasn't done before. The strategy may or may not bounce back, my guess is that it will. But at any rate I'm not going to risk any further capital before it recovers most of its drawdown. Epistemological risk management.
no suspense, it's going to be another losing trade this time. As someone correctly points out, the problem is not that the developer not changing his strategy. On the contrary, it is because the developer deviate his winning strategy in 2008 , maybe for the reason of luring more subscriber. Caution, caution, ..as the loosing trade mount, the credit of this system is going away... so will be the subscriber.
Been a subscriber for over a year. Equity curve bouncing off end-of-March support. Suggest you get on board now. When 42 breaks on the Qs only the strong hands will be smiling along with Jim.
Like this system because of overall performance and especially the position sizing. Exact percent of total account for each trade is given. Positions rarely exceed 50 per cent It basically is brain dead trading. The system manager provides a trade or no trade signal every trading day so you know he is monitoring the market.
I have opted in and out of this system, not because of the system but like today someone stole my credit card number, which is being replaced, and I am going away for a week.
Last 2 1/2 months were not good which I think is normal for any system and if you look at the overall performance insignificant.
I am probably one of the most nervous traders so the opting in and out is a function of my personality than the system.
Have to add my kudos to this system. The current drawdown has only been about 12% (so far) which is less than half the max drawdown. It looks worse on the chart because C2 charts have a linear scale rather than logarithmic. I also hope the developer does not take the negative reviews too seriously. They are to be expected during a drawdown. Also I do feel for those joining the system just before the drawdown. I know it is no fun. Maybe the best strategy to counter this is to start small and add to the system as you gain profit.
The true test of any system is adversity. The developer has so far resisted calls of the ill-informed to change or revise the system. THAT is an excellent sign. The current drawdown is not abnormal, as can easily be seen by running simple Monte Carlo analysis. To anyone upset at current minor drawdown I say put your money in the bank. You'll have zero drawdown and a lot less stress. Financial maturity is a skill most do not have, as exemplified by the bashers of this system.
Since the system now uses only end-of-day signals "to facilitate manual trading" or facilitate not having to spend time on the system that many are paying good money for, it is being destroyed by a whipsaw market that would require quick intraday signals to be profitable in. I will also agree that the system could be profitable again but not as much as in the past, and only if the market begins to trend once again.
System getting whipsawed at the moment. Seems to require a trend of at least a week or more to be profitable and the market is not providing that right now. Too bad. I also got in just in time to take the four consecutive losses. System will likely return to profitability when the market starts to trend once more but who knows how long it will be before the market chooses to cooperate.
The developer needs to focus and go back the fast trading pace of 2009 and 2008 by taking profit fast and use precise intraday signals for entry/exit. Recent trades have been very slow and all buy high and sell low. Please do not spend so much time on 2 other systems, and asking subcribers to diversify to those. I am willing to pay top dollar for one proven system, but not 3 mediocre systems.
I have been a subscriber to ETF Timer for about 1.5 years and use it to trade one of my accounts. Of course, lately the performance has not been very good. However, in reading recent reviews I think that some of the comments are unwarranted. Due to C2’s limit on the size of comments I am breaking my comments into a few parts.
-Not consistent with the ‘market picture’-
What is the ‘market picture’? At any moment in time a completely persuasive case can be found, both technically and fundamentally, for an extreme bullish to an extreme bearish case, and everything in between. If the ‘market picture’ is so clear, it should be unnecessary to subscribe to a service such as ETF Timer.
Im not sure this is an effective system in a non-trending market. To be certain, the market will trend in some direction sooner or later but until then, I think the losses will be racked up. Unfortunately I sgned up just before the 1st of the four straight losses.
Only 3 months ago I gave the system 5 stars, but now I am disappointed. The recent consecutive losses is uncharacteristic of the system. I feel the vendor probably is busy taking care of two other newer systems and stopped being nimble with ETF Timer trades.. I wish he goes back to being fast in protecting profits from turning into losses instead of insisting on trades only near end of day. My profits with the system has been cut by 2/3 due to my increasingly higher allocation of funds to the system in recent months. I don't know if the system can survive a few more losses.
I have just started with ETF Timer (3 weeks now) and a little bit disappointed with the entry points. I didn't t expose at 50% of equity as recommended... long positions in a low volume rally was not a good sign for me... and cut off my losses before they sell signal. I will give one more month for this system that seemed to have a good track record. The entry and exit signals in the past trades are not consistent with the market picture.
It appears that in the flat market the System is not sensitive enough to pick out trends, or mini trends as they may be. Given that an exposure of 30 to 50 per cent equity on a consitent basis appears to be rather risky. As a result we are seeing a series of small losses which, as the time progresses, may become the norm and eventually erode the overall equity in the System. While there may be no better system on collective2, this just raises performance concerns should the flat market continue until the rest of the year. I realize that one does not have to trade the System all time if fells uncomfortable now, but still . . . .
System has is in its 4th losing trade in a row which is uncharacteristic of system. Developer insists on holding significant positions through risky events, such as the FOMC statement release. At a minimum, he doesnt even want to reduce exposure into these events. Getting concerned his proprietary indicators are not working as well, or stopped working altogether, in this highly volative environment.
I also like ETF Timer, but I want to correct the logic in the last review. Anytime is a good time to invest in a good system (up or down). A draw down is NOT an indication of a future gain.
This is a great system - better than anything else on C2 that I have tried. My only regret is not putting more equity into the system. The recent draw down is nothing to fret over - happens to all systems - arguably now is one of the best times to invest in ETF Timer as systems tend to mean revert to their normal performance. If you can't handle a 5-10% draw down then all of your money should be in short term treasuries
