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ST ESTX restart Aug17

Futures · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-21.4%
Max Drawdown
59.8%
Trades
40
Win Trades
65.0%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.4%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20160.735.0-0.14.2-3.00.90.05.65.3-0.0-0.7-5.145.2
20171.1-2.7-5.3-12.9-7.0-0.1-1.7-14.4-35.40.00.00.0-59.1
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/8/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age130 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades40
# Profitable26
% Profitable65.0%
Avg trade duration5.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown59.8%
drawdown periodNov 23, 2016 - Sept 13, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)-21.4%
Avg win$411
Avg loss$740

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Sortino Ratio-0.45
Calmar Ratio0.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life298.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-63.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-21.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity161.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss82.5%
Chance of 20% account loss41.0%
Chance of 30% account loss20.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)543
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)278

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$740
Avg Win$411
# Winners26
Sum Trade PL (losers)$10,363
Sum Trade PL (winners)$10,691
Num Months Winners8
# Losers14
% Winners65.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table129

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7334.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)122.24
Avg Trade Length5.10
Last Trade Ago3275

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index1.44

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.28
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats35.81
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.09
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.80
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.90
df18
t1.19
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.49
Sortino ratio1.83
Upside Potential Ratio3.16
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms9
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error17
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.21
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df18
t1.05
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.38
Sortino ratio1.46
Upside Potential Ratio2.76
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms9
N of observations19
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error17
t(b)-0.20
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.03
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.10
df427
t0.13
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio0.14
Upside Potential Ratio5.02
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.96
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms150
N negative terms278
N of observations428
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error426
t(b)-0.62
p(b)0.73
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean-0.01
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.03
df427
t-0.04
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio-0.04
Upside Potential Ratio4.76
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.98
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms150
N negative terms278
N of observations428
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error426
t(b)-0.67
p(b)0.75
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-1.01
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.32
df130
t-2.36
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Sortino ratio-3.51
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-1.65
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms100
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-1.01
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.01
r-0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.92
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)-4.91
p(b)0.75
t(a)-2.33
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)-0.92
Mean-1.06
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.36
df130
t-2.39
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Sortino ratio-3.53
Upside Potential Ratio2.09
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-1.69
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms100
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion-1.06
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.97
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)-4.87
p(b)0.74
t(a)-2.37
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.27
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)-0.97
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations19
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.18
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations428
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low66
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high76
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.52
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.33
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.11
Median0.21
Quartile 30.31
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)294
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.17
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.05
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.59
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.81
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.64
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-14.95

Trading record

Placed 60 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EX U7short3Aug 28, 2017Sep 14, 2017($4,306)
EX U7short2Aug 23, 2017Aug 24, 2017($134)
EX M7short1Apr 19, 2017Jun 16, 2017($2,042)
EX M7short1Mar 20, 2017Mar 30, 2017($481)
EX H7long1Mar 6, 2017Mar 8, 2017($82)
EX H7short1Feb 20, 2017Feb 22, 2017($407)
EX H7short1Feb 6, 2017Feb 8, 2017$205
EX H7short1Jan 4, 2017Jan 17, 2017$344
EX Z6short1Dec 5, 2016Dec 6, 2016($598)
EX Z6short1Nov 22, 2016Nov 25, 2016$87
EX Z6short1Oct 21, 2016Oct 28, 2016$3
EX Z6short1Oct 3, 2016Oct 13, 2016$354
EX Z6short1Sep 28, 2016Sep 29, 2016$288
EX U6short1Sep 8, 2016Sep 9, 2016$255
EX U6short1Sep 5, 2016Sep 8, 2016$354
EX U6short1Aug 25, 2016Aug 26, 2016($19)
EX U6short1Aug 23, 2016Aug 25, 2016$266
EX U6short1Aug 17, 2016Aug 19, 2016$310
EX U6short1Aug 11, 2016Aug 15, 2016($315)
EX U6short1Aug 1, 2016Aug 3, 2016$749
EX U6long1Jul 25, 2016Jul 28, 2016($85)
EX U6short1Jul 13, 2016Jul 22, 2016($590)
EX U6short1Jun 29, 2016Jul 5, 2016$135
EX M6short1Jun 13, 2016Jun 14, 2016$738
EX M6short1May 31, 2016Jun 2, 2016$431
EX M6long1May 23, 2016May 23, 2016($326)
EX M6short1May 11, 2016May 11, 2016$91
EX M6short1Apr 28, 2016Apr 29, 2016$354
EX M6short1Apr 25, 2016Apr 28, 2016$376
EX M6short1Apr 18, 2016Apr 20, 2016($985)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.