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Wugot

Futures · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.3%
Max Drawdown
63.8%
Trades
168
Win Trades
86.9%
Profit Factor
1.90
Win Months
11.7%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201614.334.420.18.91.50.6-1.5-11.05.0-17.621.7-6.876.6
2017-2.5-16.4-5.8-5.41.2-8.39.23.311.313.415.08.319.7
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/6/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age130 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades168
# Profitable146
% Profitable86.9%
Avg trade duration3.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown63.8%
drawdown periodJune 05, 2016 - Aug 21, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)7.3%
Avg win$940
Avg loss$3,270

Ratios

W:L ratio1.91
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Sortino Ratio0.45
Calmar Ratio0.44

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life285.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-176.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,270
Avg Win$940
# Winners146
Sum Trade PL (losers)$71,931
Sum Trade PL (winners)$137,184
Num Months Winners15
# Losers22
% Winners86.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table128

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5382.68
Avg Position Time (hrs)89.71
Avg Trade Length3.70
Last Trade Ago3183

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.06
Treynor Index0.39

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.36
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.45
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats62.40
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats61.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.67
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.09
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.24
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df47
t1.33
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.64
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.58
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms34
N of observations48
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error46
t(b)0.14
p(b)0.44
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)7.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.18
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df47
t1.03
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio2.08
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms34
N of observations48
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error46
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)3.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.24
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df1048
t1.40
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio1.15
Upside Potential Ratio5.78
Upside part of mean1.18
Downside part of mean-0.95
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms218
N negative terms831
N of observations1049
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error1047
t(b)1.30
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.29
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)4.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.18
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df1048
t1.09
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio0.85
Upside Potential Ratio5.40
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms218
N negative terms831
N of observations1049
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error1047
t(b)1.29
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)3.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.92
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6824055030153216
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)5.71521789589445e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations48
Minimum0.73
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations1049
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low205
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high220
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.43
Quartile 10.43
Median0.43
Quartile 30.43
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.00
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-472945152
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)442
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.33
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.69
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 193 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NQ Z7long10Dec 4, 2017Dec 11, 2017$3,720
NQ Z7long10Nov 30, 2017Dec 3, 2017$4,970
NQ Z7long10Nov 29, 2017Nov 30, 2017$7,770
NQ Z7long10Nov 7, 2017Nov 21, 2017$4,370
NQ Z7long10Oct 24, 2017Oct 26, 2017$3,670
NQ Z7short10Oct 4, 2017Oct 4, 2017$2,020
NQ Z7long10Sep 21, 2017Oct 2, 2017$4,770
NQ Z7long10Sep 12, 2017Sep 18, 2017$1,770
NQ U7long10Sep 1, 2017Sep 12, 2017$3,245
NQ U7short5Aug 31, 2017Sep 1, 2017$1,910
NQ U7long8Aug 16, 2017Aug 30, 2017$3,456
NQ U7short10Aug 16, 2017Aug 16, 2017($1,330)
NQ U7long10Aug 16, 2017Aug 16, 2017($1,680)
QGC Q7long2Jun 14, 2017Aug 10, 2017$2,424
QGC M7long2May 24, 2017May 30, 2017$944
QGC J7short2Mar 9, 2017Apr 26, 2017($13,176)
HOG1717C65 long10Jan 26, 2017Mar 18, 2017($847)
NTGR1717C55 long10Jan 26, 2017Mar 18, 2017($4,607)
QGC J7short2Feb 15, 2017Mar 7, 2017$2,724
CME1717C125 long10Jan 26, 2017Mar 1, 2017$1,236
QGC G7short2Jan 27, 2017Feb 24, 2017($14,316)
QGC J7long2Feb 14, 2017Feb 15, 2017$1,564
QGC G7long2Jan 27, 2017Jan 27, 2017($76)
FB1724B124 long1Jan 17, 2017Jan 26, 2017$308
QGC G7short2Jan 18, 2017Jan 25, 2017$1,644
QGC G7long2Jan 13, 2017Jan 15, 2017$2,264
QGC Z6long2Nov 23, 2016Dec 28, 2016($12,156)
QGC Z6long1Nov 23, 2016Nov 23, 2016($18)
QGC Z6short2Nov 22, 2016Nov 23, 2016$844
QGC Z6short2Nov 17, 2016Nov 18, 2016$804

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.