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ASCENDANT VX AUTO

Futures · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.3%
Max Drawdown
25.5%
Trades
63
Win Trades
92.1%
Profit Factor
2.90
Win Months
7.0%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201610.510.08.611.92.43.61.17.42.5-1.5-3.9-13.642.4
2017-1.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.1
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/4/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age130 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades63
# Profitable58
% Profitable92.1%
Avg trade duration2.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown25.5%
drawdown periodFeb 07, 2016 - Feb 11, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)3.3%
Avg win$439
Avg loss$1,739

Ratios

W:L ratio2.93
Sharpe Ratio0.16
Sortino Ratio0.23
Calmar Ratio1.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life281.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-238.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,739
Avg Win$439
# Winners58
Sum Trade PL (losers)$8,697
Sum Trade PL (winners)$25,456
Num Months Winners9
# Losers5
% Winners92.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table129

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3900
Avg Position Time (hrs)65
Avg Trade Length2.70
Last Trade Ago3542

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.03
Treynor Index0.17

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.23
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.20
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.61
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.92
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats78.85
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.67
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.92
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.26

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.22
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.14
df26
t1.76
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.48
Sortino ratio2.65
Upside Potential Ratio3.70
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms17
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.54
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.01
r-0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error25
t(b)-1.41
p(b)0.91
t(a)2.27
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.20
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df26
t1.67
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio2.30
Upside Potential Ratio3.34
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms17
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.01
r-0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error25
t(b)-1.36
p(b)0.91
t(a)2.15
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.22
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df610
t1.45
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio1.47
Upside Potential Ratio4.51
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms101
N negative terms510
N of observations611
Mean of predictor0.60
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error609
t(b)1.07
p(b)0.14
t(a)1.32
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)6.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.19
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df610
t1.28
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio1.23
Upside Potential Ratio4.19
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms101
N negative terms510
N of observations611
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error609
t(b)1.09
p(b)0.14
t(a)1.15
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)6.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6809053783130112
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.31841987806624e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.39
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations611
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low82
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high102
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.51
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.13
Quartile 10.13
Median0.13
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.52
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-447397792
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)4
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.97
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.96
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.29
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 151 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VX Z6long3Nov 14, 2016Dec 21, 2016($7,829)
VX Z6short2Oct 26, 2016Nov 7, 2016$384
VX X6long2Oct 20, 2016Oct 27, 2016$234
VX X6short1Oct 13, 2016Oct 13, 2016$242
VX X6short2Oct 11, 2016Oct 12, 2016$434
VX X6long1Oct 10, 2016Oct 11, 2016$250
VX X6long1Oct 10, 2016Oct 10, 2016($50)
VX V6long1Sep 29, 2016Sep 29, 2016$192
VX V6long1Sep 22, 2016Sep 23, 2016$192
VX X6short2Sep 9, 2016Sep 21, 2016$822
VX V6long1Sep 6, 2016Sep 9, 2016$259
VX X6long1Aug 29, 2016Aug 31, 2016$192
VX V6long1Aug 26, 2016Aug 26, 2016$242
VX U6short2Aug 24, 2016Aug 25, 2016$284
VX U6short1Aug 22, 2016Aug 22, 2016$192
VX U6short2Aug 16, 2016Aug 17, 2016$684
VX U6long1Aug 9, 2016Aug 10, 2016$392
VX Q6short1Aug 2, 2016Aug 3, 2016$392
VX Q6long2Jul 29, 2016Aug 2, 2016$484
VX Q6long1Jul 28, 2016Jul 28, 2016$242
VX Q6long1Jul 27, 2016Jul 28, 2016$192
VX Q6short1Jul 25, 2016Jul 25, 2016$92
VX Q6short1Jul 21, 2016Jul 22, 2016$242
VX Q6long1Jul 20, 2016Jul 21, 2016$242
VX Q6short1Jul 18, 2016Jul 18, 2016$192
VX Q6short1Jul 12, 2016Jul 12, 2016$142
VX Q6short2Jun 9, 2016Jun 23, 2016$1,109
VX N6short1Jun 10, 2016Jun 23, 2016($8)
VX N6long1Jun 5, 2016Jun 10, 2016$92
VX N6long1Jun 1, 2016Jun 2, 2016$142

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.