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NAS100 Short Term Swing

Stocks · Started Jan 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.9%
Max Drawdown
25.5%
Trades
1191
Win Trades
64.4%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
38.0%

About this strategy

The program was updated on 1/1/20 to incorporate the purchase of protective SPY Put options to mitigate risk during periods of higher leverage.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-4.41.31.0-0.42.10.51.30.6-0.1-4.12.0-1.5-2.0
20177.41.50.90.3-0.70.82.6-2.6-1.61.53.94.019.0
20184.3-5.1-2.60.62.8-2.42.53.62.3-0.81.8-4.02.4
2019-0.1-0.12.13.6-7.85.10.9-1.01.02.5-0.11.77.4
2020-3.22.24.11.73.95.69.73.12.5-5.110.410.454.1
2021-1.3-1.15.21.2-1.82.32.43.2-10.1-0.1-5.213.06.1
2022-9.81.70.7-4.6-1.1-1.11.1-1.4-0.00.0-0.10.0-14.3
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/2/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age130 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1191
# Profitable767
% Profitable64.4%
Avg trade duration9.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown25.5%
drawdown periodSept 01, 2021 - Feb 22, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)8.9%
Avg win$543
Avg loss$777

Ratios

W:L ratio1.28
Sharpe Ratio0.31
Sortino Ratio0.46
Calmar Ratio0.52

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.32
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life272.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-13.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity22.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss55.5%
Chance of 20% account loss30.0%
Chance of 30% account loss7.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss1.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)569
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)674
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)516

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$777
Avg Win$543
# Winners767
Sum Trade PL (losers)$329,564
Sum Trade PL (winners)$416,661
Num Months Winners49
# Losers424
% Winners64.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct5961

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table129

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)13890.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)231.51
Avg Trade Length9.60
Last Trade Ago1468

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.83
Daily leverage (max)2.65

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.21
Treynor Index0.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades17.99
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.06
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats62.13
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.74
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.94
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df80
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio2.38
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms32
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error79
t(b)4.67
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.90
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.07
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df80
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.77
Upside Potential Ratio2.21
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms32
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error79
t(b)4.65
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.08
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df1771
t1.54
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio7.38
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms826
N negative terms946
N of observations1772
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1770
t(b)17.18
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.07
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df1771
t1.37
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.78
Upside Potential Ratio7.25
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms826
N negative terms946
N of observations1772
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1770
t(b)17.17
p(b)0.31
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.07
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.31
df130
t-0.93
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio-1.61
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms102
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)3.69
p(b)0.31
t(a)-0.99
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean-0.07
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.34
df130
t-0.95
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio-1.63
Upside Potential Ratio3.45
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms29
N negative terms102
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)3.72
p(b)0.31
t(a)-0.98
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations81
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1772
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low154
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high157
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low30
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations73
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.06
Median0.06
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-303537024
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)174
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.39
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.24
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.94

Trading record

Placed 10 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
INCY long348Jul 29, 2022Sep 2, 2022($2,854)
MNST long286Jul 25, 2022Jul 29, 2022$803
EXC long629Jul 21, 2022Jul 27, 2022$857
AEP long292Jul 21, 2022Jul 25, 2022$596
EXC long586Jun 10, 2022Jun 24, 2022($2,238)
AEP long288Jun 14, 2022Jun 24, 2022($182)
XEL long384Jun 13, 2022Jun 24, 2022($1,210)
SIRI long4447Jun 10, 2022Jun 24, 2022$39
VRTX long109Jun 14, 2022Jun 22, 2022$2,247
AMGN long111Jun 7, 2022Jun 22, 2022($832)
KHC long710May 20, 2022May 26, 2022($1,553)
COST long50Apr 27, 2022May 18, 2022($6,221)
VRTX long115May 11, 2022May 17, 2022$2,065
CHKP long206Apr 27, 2022May 16, 2022($1,005)
VRTX long104Apr 25, 2022May 5, 2022$174
AAPL long167Apr 11, 2022May 5, 2022($815)
PAYX long214Apr 27, 2022May 5, 2022$144
ADP long124Apr 27, 2022May 5, 2022$406
FAST long485Apr 13, 2022Apr 29, 2022$121
AEP long279Apr 27, 2022Apr 29, 2022$686
SPY2227Q370 long6Apr 27, 2022Apr 29, 2022($458)
SNPS long89Apr 11, 2022Apr 29, 2022($1,557)
SIRI long4386Apr 11, 2022Apr 29, 2022($970)
NVDA long118Apr 7, 2022Apr 27, 2022($6,897)
CTAS long67Apr 18, 2022Apr 21, 2022$731
ADP long205Apr 18, 2022Apr 21, 2022$1,097
VRSK long135Apr 14, 2022Apr 21, 2022$116
AVGO long47Apr 8, 2022Apr 20, 2022$320
TSLA long28Apr 11, 2022Apr 20, 2022$1,388
MAR long173Apr 7, 2022Apr 14, 2022$1,834

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.