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ANTARES SP500

Futures · Futures · Started Feb 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.9%
Max Drawdown
61.5%
Trades
129
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
22.7%

About this strategy

ANTARES SP500 is a fully mechanical strategy operating End-Of-Day on Mini-SP500 Futures.
It is composed of five different long/short strategies:

- 1 Countertrend
- 3 Pattern
- 2 Intermarket

Please download strategy description and 17 years backtest: http://bit.ly/ANTARES_SP500_backtest_09_2001_to_05_2018

Strategy operates long/short with limit and market orders;
Orders for next trading day (if generated) are sent to subscribers around 17:30 ET (23:30 CET).
Orders are valid from next day Globex Future market open (18:00ET/00:00 CET) until the end of next day trading session (17:00 ET, 23:00 CET). Stops and price targets are always given the day after the trade is initiated.

ANTARES SP500 opens up to 5 long positions (usually 1-2) or 1 to 3 short positions in the same direction (long/short) and manages independent adaptive stops and targets for each positions. A global pre-defined maximum daily loss check is coded into the strategy and will exit all positions when hit. In case of high price volatility, all positions will be closed at market open by an automatic protective exit. Profit target and stop loss are self-adapting using custom functions.

Actual subscriber feedback about their experience trading ANTARES SP500: https://forums.collective2.com/t/antares-sp500-subscribers-feedback-and-reviews-request/11093/21

I am always available for question or additional information, please email me at tradingflow@gmail.com

Thank you,
P.G.

Backtesting data is hypothetical and it has not been verified by C2.

Short Term Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20167.86.32.60.336.00.42.13.80.624.1-0.4112.4
20177.9-2.50.83.42.39.13.85.91.31.8-0.11.941.0
2018-7.6-13.3-12.614.9-1.77.14.21.63.3-9.0-0.6-18.6-31.8
20193.7-3.522.31.9-13.311.40.00.00.00.00.00.020.4
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/20/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age128 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades129
# Profitable86
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration4.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown61.5%
drawdown periodNov 26, 2017 - Dec 26, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)8.9%
Avg win$1,790
Avg loss$2,594

Ratios

W:L ratio1.38
Sharpe Ratio0.34
Sortino Ratio0.58
Calmar Ratio0.39

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life299.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-152.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity25.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss68.0%
Chance of 20% account loss41.5%
Chance of 30% account loss18.0%
Chance of 40% account loss8.0%
Chance of 50% account loss1.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)325
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,594
Avg Win$1,790
# Winners86
Sum Trade PL (losers)$111,560
Sum Trade PL (winners)$153,916
Num Months Winners29
# Losers43
% Winners66.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table128

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6034.85
Avg Position Time (hrs)100.58
Avg Trade Length4.20
Last Trade Ago2645

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.16
Daily leverage (max)15.28

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.01
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.18
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats22.72
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.67
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df64
t1.78
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.61
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.22
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms39
N of observations65
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error63
t(b)0.65
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)2.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.16
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df64
t1.61
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio2.88
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms39
N of observations65
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error63
t(b)0.78
p(b)0.22
t(a)1.34
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)1.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.19
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df1427
t1.61
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio1.15
Upside Potential Ratio4.88
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms319
N negative terms1109
N of observations1428
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1426
t(b)4.19
p(b)0.44
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)1.50
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.15
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df1427
t1.34
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio4.55
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.63
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms319
N negative terms1109
N of observations1428
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1426
t(b)4.36
p(b)0.44
t(a)1.10
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6777684952612864
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)3.49789668192267e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations65
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations1428
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low237
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high321
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations34
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.85
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-480646816
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)395
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.60
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.31
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.04
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 373 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M9long2May 29, 2019Jun 5, 2019$2,359
ES M9long1May 22, 2019May 23, 2019($1,033)
ES M9long7May 5, 2019May 17, 2019($3,469)
NQ M9long2May 14, 2019May 14, 2019($16)
ES M9long2Mar 25, 2019Apr 2, 2019$6,547
ES H9long3Mar 5, 2019Mar 13, 2019$6,026
ES H9short1Feb 15, 2019Feb 22, 2019($633)
ES H9short1Jan 31, 2019Feb 6, 2019($1,771)
ES H9long4Dec 25, 2018Jan 4, 2019$22,981
ES H9long6Dec 17, 2018Dec 24, 2018($24,286)
ES Z8long4Dec 9, 2018Dec 19, 2018($6,601)
NQ H9long2Dec 17, 2018Dec 18, 2018$827
ES Z8long1Dec 6, 2018Dec 6, 2018$3,630
ES Z8long2Dec 4, 2018Dec 6, 2018($5,804)
ES Z8long10Nov 12, 2018Nov 28, 2018($2,577)
ES Z8short1Nov 6, 2018Nov 12, 2018$1,100
ES Z8long1Oct 31, 2018Nov 1, 2018$480
ES Z8long1Oct 31, 2018Oct 31, 2018($286)
ES Z8long2Oct 29, 2018Oct 31, 2018$4,964
NQ Z8long1Oct 29, 2018Oct 29, 2018($7)
ES Z8long1Oct 26, 2018Oct 28, 2018$1,105
ES Z8long1Oct 24, 2018Oct 25, 2018$1,092
ES Z8long1Oct 23, 2018Oct 24, 2018($1,001)
ES Z8long2Oct 22, 2018Oct 23, 2018($1,225)
ES Z8long1Oct 18, 2018Oct 19, 2018$1,055
ES Z8long4Oct 12, 2018Oct 16, 2018$7,244
ES Z8long2Oct 11, 2018Oct 11, 2018($4,684)
ES Z8long6Sep 26, 2018Oct 10, 2018($12,811)
ES U8long2Sep 4, 2018Sep 13, 2018$1,131
ES U8long1Aug 15, 2018Aug 21, 2018$2,468

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.