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Test1966ZB

Futures · Started Nov 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.2%
Max Drawdown
14.4%
Trades
136
Win Trades
43.4%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
20.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20151.3-2.6-1.3
20166.013.72.08.53.40.72.30.1-1.53.0-5.20.837.8
2017-1.3-4.13.92.16.5-5.20.4-6.21.51.8-1.41.8-0.9
20181.31.21.60.60.1-1.2-2.54.7-3.51.40.72.06.2
2019-3.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-3.1
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/1/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age132 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades136
# Profitable59
% Profitable43.4%
Avg trade duration2.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.4%
drawdown periodMay 18, 2017 - Sept 06, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)9.2%
Avg win$1,393
Avg loss$780

Ratios

W:L ratio1.37
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Sortino Ratio0.31
Calmar Ratio0.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life268.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)3.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity7.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)463
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)907
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)781

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$780
Avg Win$1,393
# Winners59
Sum Trade PL (losers)$60,022
Sum Trade PL (winners)$82,214
Num Months Winners27
# Losers77
% Winners43.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table131

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3059.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)50.99
Avg Trade Length2.10
Last Trade Ago2763

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats59.47
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats91.47
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.36
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.20

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df37
t1.75
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio1.98
Upside Potential Ratio3.73
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms14
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error36
t(b)-0.71
p(b)0.76
t(a)1.84
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.12
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df37
t1.66
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio1.81
Upside Potential Ratio3.55
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms14
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.00
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error36
t(b)-0.72
p(b)0.76
t(a)1.75
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.12
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df832
t1.92
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.18
Sortino ratio1.97
Upside Potential Ratio9.34
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms556
N negative terms277
N of observations833
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error831
t(b)-2.50
p(b)0.99
t(a)2.03
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.12
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df832
t1.84
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio1.86
Upside Potential Ratio9.21
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms556
N negative terms277
N of observations833
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error831
t(b)-2.48
p(b)0.99
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.62
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df130
t0.46
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.42
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio8.62
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms86
N negative terms45
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.09
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.45
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.05
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df130
t0.44
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.39
Sortino ratio0.96
Upside Potential Ratio8.54
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.38
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms86
N negative terms45
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.11
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations38
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations833
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low86
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high137
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.87
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-2
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)111
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.98
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.91
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.08

Trading record

Placed 218 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QGC J9short1Feb 3, 2019Feb 10, 2019($48)
QGC J9long1Jan 30, 2019Feb 1, 2019($248)
QGC G9long1Jan 30, 2019Jan 30, 2019$542
QGC G9short1Jan 15, 2019Jan 16, 2019($828)
QGC G9long1Jan 6, 2019Jan 8, 2019($778)
QGC G9long1Jan 3, 2019Jan 4, 2019($808)
QGC G9long1Dec 17, 2018Dec 19, 2018($18)
QGC G9long1Dec 3, 2018Dec 7, 2018$1,442
QGC G9long1Nov 26, 2018Nov 27, 2018($548)
QGC Z8short1Nov 6, 2018Nov 9, 2018$1,872
QGC Z8short1Oct 29, 2018Nov 1, 2018($18)
QGC Z8short1Oct 22, 2018Oct 23, 2018($598)
QGC Z8short1Oct 8, 2018Oct 11, 2018($123)
QGC Z8long1Oct 2, 2018Oct 5, 2018$942
QGC Z8long1Sep 24, 2018Sep 26, 2018($998)
QGC Z8long1Sep 17, 2018Sep 21, 2018($158)
QGC Z8long1Sep 11, 2018Sep 14, 2018$7
QGC Z8short1Sep 4, 2018Sep 6, 2018($1,323)
QGC Z8short1Aug 30, 2018Aug 31, 2018($883)
QGC Z8long1Aug 20, 2018Aug 24, 2018$1,712
QGC Z8short1Aug 12, 2018Aug 15, 2018$2,967
QGC Z8long1Aug 9, 2018Aug 9, 2018($558)
QGC Z8short1Jul 31, 2018Jul 31, 2018($1,118)
QGC Q8short1Jul 23, 2018Jul 27, 2018$402
QGC Q8short1Jul 17, 2018Jul 19, 2018($133)
QGC Q8short1Jul 10, 2018Jul 13, 2018$832
QGC Q8short1Jul 2, 2018Jul 3, 2018($1,693)
QGC Q8short1Jun 26, 2018Jun 29, 2018$272
QGC Q8short1Jun 20, 2018Jun 22, 2018($328)
QGC Q8short1Jun 11, 2018Jun 11, 2018($671)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.