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This is the ES

Futures · Started Oct 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.7%
Max Drawdown
27.0%
Trades
211
Win Trades
89.6%
Profit Factor
3.10
Win Months
3.0%

About this strategy

I have closed this system. It made 34% in a few months and was basically flat for the year so far in the few months I traded it. This was due to many factors. Primarily what i found is there are a lot of people that will follow your system want you to have 'skin in the game' or TOS certified. So I had to move around a few account and money in my live accounts to accommodate this. I did not want mixed results from live system and non live system so i created a new one GT1 Futures. Please follow that if you liked what i was doing here.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201532.07.9-6.633.0
20167.1-7.0-6.48.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.9
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/6/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age133 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades211
# Profitable189
% Profitable89.6%
Avg trade duration49.2 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.0%
drawdown periodFeb 16, 2016 - March 30, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)2.7%
Avg win$73
Avg loss$199

Ratios

W:L ratio3.13
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.16
Calmar Ratio2.24

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life287.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-249.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated12.9%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$199
Avg Win$73
# Winners189
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,382
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,731
Num Months Winners4
# Losers22
% Winners89.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table132

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)49.17
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.82
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago3794

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.54

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.50
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats95.91
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.52
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.31
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.60
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.32
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df27
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio8.84
Upside Potential Ratio10.07
Upside part of mean0.36
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms22
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.01
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error26
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.91
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean0.25
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df27
t1.21
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio6.94
Upside Potential Ratio8.15
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.04
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms22
N of observations28
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.01
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error26
t(b)-0.35
p(b)0.64
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.26
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.78
df627
t2.76
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.05
Sortino ratio3.03
Upside Potential Ratio5.00
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms535
N of observations628
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error626
t(b)0.18
p(b)0.43
t(a)2.72
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)78.91
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.25
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.72
df627
t2.67
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio2.81
Upside Potential Ratio4.77
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms535
N of observations628
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error626
t(b)0.19
p(b)0.43
t(a)2.63
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)73.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.94
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.45
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6809339935326208
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)9.82059767446404e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations28
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.61
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations628
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high94
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.05
Median0.05
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-412222176
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)43
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.09
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.32
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.78
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 377 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M6short1Apr 21, 2016Apr 21, 2016$42
ES M6long2Apr 7, 2016Apr 7, 2016$47
ES M6short3Mar 29, 2016Apr 1, 2016$205
ES M6long4Mar 28, 2016Mar 28, 2016($24)
ES M6long1Mar 28, 2016Mar 28, 2016$55
ES H6short1Mar 10, 2016Mar 10, 2016$70
ES H6short1Mar 9, 2016Mar 9, 2016$42
ES H6long1Mar 7, 2016Mar 7, 2016$2
ES H6short1Mar 1, 2016Mar 1, 2016$35
ES H6short1Mar 1, 2016Mar 1, 2016$14
ES H6short1Feb 26, 2016Feb 26, 2016$52
ES H6short1Feb 25, 2016Feb 25, 2016$50
ES H6long1Feb 24, 2016Feb 24, 2016$42
ES H6long1Feb 24, 2016Feb 24, 2016$92
ES H6long4Feb 23, 2016Feb 23, 2016($1,621)
ES H6short1Feb 22, 2016Feb 22, 2016$31
ES H6long1Feb 19, 2016Feb 19, 2016$31
ES H6long1Feb 19, 2016Feb 19, 2016($12)
ES H6long1Feb 18, 2016Feb 18, 2016$42
ES H6short1Feb 17, 2016Feb 17, 2016($329)
ES H6short1Feb 16, 2016Feb 16, 2016$31
ES H6long1Feb 12, 2016Feb 12, 2016$50
ES H6long1Feb 11, 2016Feb 11, 2016$48
ES H6short1Feb 10, 2016Feb 10, 2016$67
ES H6long1Feb 10, 2016Feb 10, 2016$9
ES H6long1Feb 9, 2016Feb 9, 2016$103
ES H6long1Feb 9, 2016Feb 9, 2016($10)
ES H6long1Feb 8, 2016Feb 8, 2016$93
ES H6long1Feb 8, 2016Feb 8, 2016$69
ES H6long1Feb 5, 2016Feb 5, 2016$92

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.