Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

ST restart Aug17

Futures · Started Apr 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-29.2%
Max Drawdown
81.8%
Trades
92
Win Trades
62.0%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
9.4%

About this strategy

The system takes positions around important support or resistance zones in order to play different trends in the market. Positions can be built up over time with a maximum of 2 contracts. Usually (85% of the time) the system trades just 1 contract at a time.
When short term opportunities occur, daytrading is allowed.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20153.6-0.353.62.613.814.9-13.1-2.84.187.3
20164.019.0-6.65.4-4.6-2.0-6.42.6-1.70.2-19.50.4-12.9
2017-11.2-23.315.1-12.8-12.3-11.8-1.7-35.2-35.10.00.00.0-78.1
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/23/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$12,500
Age138 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades92
# Profitable57
% Profitable62.0%
Avg trade duration3.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown81.8%
drawdown periodMarch 17, 2016 - Sept 13, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)-29.2%
Avg win$624
Avg loss$1,052

Ratios

W:L ratio0.97
Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Sortino Ratio-0.49
Calmar Ratio-0.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life263.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-74.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-29.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity554.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss88.0%
Chance of 30% account loss66.0%
Chance of 40% account loss37.0%
Chance of 50% account loss17.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)3.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)18
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)714
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)293

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,052
Avg Win$624
# Winners57
Sum Trade PL (losers)$36,821
Sum Trade PL (winners)$35,557
Num Months Winners13
# Losers35
% Winners62.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table138

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5508.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)91.81
Avg Trade Length3.80
Last Trade Ago3275

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta-0.07
Treynor Index0.35

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.29
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades21.70
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.66
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.66
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.63
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.44
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.24
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.52
df26
t0.81
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio3.11
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms14
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.02
r-0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.74
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error25
t(b)-2.45
p(b)0.99
t(a)1.30
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean0.15
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df26
t0.56
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio2.61
Upside part of mean0.57
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms14
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.02
r-0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error25
t(b)-2.64
p(b)0.99
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.02
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df609
t0.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.36
Sortino ratio0.11
Upside Potential Ratio6.01
Upside part of mean1.36
Downside part of mean-1.34
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms389
N negative terms221
N of observations610
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.01
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error608
t(b)-5.61
p(b)1
t(a)0.33
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean-0.03
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.08
df609
t-0.13
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.20
Sortino ratio-0.12
Upside Potential Ratio5.70
Upside part of mean1.34
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms389
N negative terms221
N of observations610
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.01
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error608
t(b)-5.59
p(b)1
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.99
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.50
df130
t-1.78
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Sortino ratio-2.84
Upside Potential Ratio2.88
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-2.00
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms38
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion-0.99
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.01
r-0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.80
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)-5.57
p(b)0.77
t(a)-1.58
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.44
Jensen alpha (a)-0.80
Mean-1.07
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.63
df130
t-1.87
p0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.16
Sortino ratio-2.93
Upside Potential Ratio2.70
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-2.06
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms93
N negative terms38
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion-1.07
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.01
r-0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)-2.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.88
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)-5.52
p(b)0.77
t(a)-1.69
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.15
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.88
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.95
Median1.00
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.47
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations610
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low70
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high71
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.05
Median0.08
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.47
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.47
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.65
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.41
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.99
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.13
Median0.25
Quartile 30.36
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)545
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.81
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.83
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.66
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.38
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-12.12

Trading record

Placed 147 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U7short2Aug 22, 2017Sep 14, 2017($5,779)
ES M7short1Apr 20, 2017Jun 16, 2017($4,646)
ES M7short1Mar 24, 2017Mar 24, 2017$767
ES M7short1Mar 20, 2017Mar 21, 2017$1,592
ES H7long1Mar 6, 2017Mar 8, 2017($58)
ES H7short1Feb 6, 2017Feb 28, 2017($4,033)
ES H7short2Jan 3, 2017Jan 24, 2017($2,099)
ES H7long1Dec 19, 2016Dec 21, 2016$267
ES Z6short1Nov 23, 2016Nov 28, 2016($346)
ES Z6short1Nov 9, 2016Nov 15, 2016($3,212)
ES Z6long1Nov 1, 2016Nov 2, 2016($1,150)
ES Z6short1Oct 21, 2016Oct 27, 2016$10
ES Z6long1Oct 18, 2016Oct 18, 2016$30
ES Z6short1Sep 27, 2016Oct 7, 2016($34)
ES Z6long1Sep 26, 2016Sep 26, 2016($370)
ES Z6long1Sep 20, 2016Sep 20, 2016$5
ES Z6short1Sep 15, 2016Sep 16, 2016$525
ES Z6long1Sep 14, 2016Sep 14, 2016($383)
ES Z6short1Sep 8, 2016Sep 9, 2016$242
ES U6short1Aug 17, 2016Aug 26, 2016$124
ES U6short1Aug 10, 2016Aug 15, 2016($446)
ES U6short1Aug 1, 2016Aug 2, 2016$1,183
ES U6long1Jul 25, 2016Jul 28, 2016($308)
ES U6short1Jul 19, 2016Jul 21, 2016($896)
ES U6short1Jun 29, 2016Jul 8, 2016($2,423)
ES U6short1Jun 20, 2016Jun 20, 2016$450
ES U6short1Jun 13, 2016Jun 14, 2016$987
ES M6short1May 25, 2016Jun 13, 2016($433)
ES M6short1May 15, 2016May 18, 2016($393)
ES M6short1Apr 28, 2016Apr 29, 2016$1,017

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.