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CoT Trading Advanced

Futures · Started Apr 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
19.0%
Max Drawdown
18.3%
Trades
14
Win Trades
71.4%
Profit Factor
12.60
Win Months
1.5%

About this strategy

The CoT Advanced trading strategy is presented to you by Paper Trading Pro.

The goal of this strategy is long-term growth.

The foundation of the strategy is the data from the Commitment of Traders (CoT). Close attention is paid to the trading positions of commercials and non-commercials. Their activities can show trading signals in connection with the Momentum and Stochastic indicators.

Momentum Advanced and the InsideRange indicator were developed by Paper Trading Pro to filter out profitable trading signals.

There are two ways trading signals are identified:

1. A trade is opened as soon as a new trend based on the CoT and the indicators mentioned above were found.

2. During the course of the established trends, trading signals are identified and addressed with the help of Momentum Advanced, InsideDays4 and the Stochastic.

Stop Loss of max. $ 2,500 is set for each trade. The first trading signal (1) is always started with 1 Future item, and in the trend progression (2) the number of Futures may increase, but more than $2,500 per trade signal will never be risked. When trading with several Futures, the margin is then correspondingly high. Therefore, it makes sense to have a minimum capital of $50,000.

The trading period runs from 1 to 14 days, and sometimes longer.


More trading systems are being planned:
5-Hour Trading Goal: generate additional income
CoT Trading Advanced Mini Goal: long-term growth for small depots

Send us your email address or visit us on Facebook or Twitter. You will be informed from the very beginning and will receive 20% off of the monthly fee.

Facebook https://www.facebook.com/PaperTradingPro
Twitter @PaperTradingPro

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20159.741.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.055.5
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/4/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age139 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades14
# Profitable10
% Profitable71.4%
Avg trade duration4.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown18.3%
drawdown periodMay 06, 2015 - May 07, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)19.0%
Avg win$3,124
Avg loss$620

Ratios

W:L ratio12.60
Sharpe Ratio0.26
Sortino Ratio1.11
Calmar Ratio3.38

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life270.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)32.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)19.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$620
Avg Win$3,124
# Winners10
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,479
Sum Trade PL (winners)$31,240
Num Months Winners2
# Losers4
% Winners71.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table137

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7058.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)117.64
Avg Trade Length4.90
Last Trade Ago4120

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-1.55

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.40
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.05
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.97
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.50
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.36

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.44
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.25
df12
t1.39
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.20
Sortino ratio59.71
Upside Potential Ratio62.90
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms11
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.51
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error11
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.70
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.51
Mean0.39
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.24
df12
t1.38
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.19
Sortino ratio52.84
Upside Potential Ratio56.02
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms2
N negative terms11
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.01
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error11
t(b)-0.50
p(b)0.69
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.41
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.81
df288
t1.91
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.68
Sortino ratio8.01
Upside Potential Ratio11.34
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms273
N of observations289
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error287
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.70
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
Mean0.38
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df288
t1.89
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.66
Sortino ratio7.45
Upside Potential Ratio10.76
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms273
N of observations289
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error287
t(b)-0.52
p(b)0.70
t(a)1.91
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-11.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6796790577758208
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.96884327646469e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.17
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.26
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations289
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.53
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.52
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.91
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.04
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 14 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BP M5long1May 21, 2015May 22, 2015($1,152)
QCL N5long1May 18, 2015May 19, 2015($1,143)
EU M5long1May 12, 2015May 15, 2015$1,305
DX M5short3May 12, 2015May 15, 2015$2,826
CD M5long3May 11, 2015May 15, 2015$1,206
AD M5long3May 12, 2015May 13, 2015$6,066
QHO M5long1May 12, 2015May 13, 2015$744
QCL M5long1May 12, 2015May 13, 2015($208)
BP M5long4May 5, 2015May 12, 2015$12,468
DX M5short3May 5, 2015May 7, 2015$531
EU M5long2May 5, 2015May 7, 2015$734
CD M5long4May 4, 2015May 7, 2015($32)
QCL M5long1Apr 23, 2015May 7, 2015$2,312
CD M5long4Apr 8, 2015May 1, 2015$2,848

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.