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CraZy Options

Options · Started Sep 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.0%
Max Drawdown
75.1%
Trades
305
Win Trades
73.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
6.0%

About this strategy

I like trading and mostly I believe in day trading systems, and using big stocks move with weeklys options (like AAPL, PCLN, NFLX, BIDU, AMZN ans so on)

Timming is everything and i like to spot stocks that move lower too much (or get lower after big gap up). yes i prefer Long with naked options (calls mostly)

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20151.4214.5-42.344.3165.5
2016134.642.0-33.0-9.656.7-11.85.4-27.067.8-2.7-32.50.0136.5
2017-58.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-58.9
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/22/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age134 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades305
# Profitable223
% Profitable73.1%
Avg trade duration16.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown75.1%
drawdown periodOct 04, 2016 - Jan 21, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)9.0%
Avg win$1,308
Avg loss$2,806

Ratios

W:L ratio1.27
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Sortino Ratio0.46
Calmar Ratio2.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life294.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-135.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity302.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,806
Avg Win$1,308
# Winners223
Sum Trade PL (losers)$230,065
Sum Trade PL (winners)$291,738
Num Months Winners8
# Losers82
% Winners73.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table133

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)984.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)16.41
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago3518

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.03
Treynor Index1.20

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.88
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.42
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.65
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats63.92
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.30
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.38
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.50
SD1.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df30
t1.41
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio3.82
Upside Potential Ratio5.21
Upside part of mean2.04
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD1.69
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms25
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion1.50
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.71
Covariance-0.03
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.70
Mean Square Error3.01
DF error29
t(b)-0.36
p(b)0.64
t(a)1.40
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.99
Jensen alpha (a)1.70
Mean0.69
SD1.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df30
t0.99
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio1.43
Upside Potential Ratio2.77
Upside part of mean1.33
Downside part of mean-0.64
Upside SD1.00
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms25
N of observations31
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.69
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion1.11
Covariance-0.02
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.79
Mean Square Error1.28
DF error29
t(b)-0.29
p(b)0.61
t(a)1.01
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.79
VaR(95%)0.38
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.45
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
Mean0.86
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.38
df683
t2.23
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio2.74
Upside Potential Ratio6.04
Upside part of mean1.90
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms155
N negative terms529
N of observations684
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.86
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.85
Mean Square Error0.39
DF error682
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.40
t(a)2.19
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.61
Treynor index (mean / b)45.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.85
Mean0.68
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.16
df683
t1.88
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.37
Sortino ratio2.01
Upside Potential Ratio5.24
Upside part of mean1.77
Downside part of mean-1.09
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms155
N negative terms529
N of observations684
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.68
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error682
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.84
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.39
Treynor index (mean / b)38.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6810948400578560
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.27170005133496e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations31
Minimum0.59
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum3.17
Mean of quarter 10.83
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.66
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.88
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.37
Number of observations684
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.41
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low92
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high155
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.11
Quartile 10.22
Median0.33
Quartile 30.43
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20.26
Mean of quarter 30.41
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.50
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.48
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.48
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.51
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.54
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-421589472
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)109
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.83
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 2586 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GS1720A240 long120Jan 17, 2017Jan 21, 2017($37,501)
BIDU1713A175 long20Jan 12, 2017Jan 12, 2017$574
BIDU1625W160 long30Nov 23, 2016Nov 26, 2016($1,075)
TSLA1604K200 long95Nov 1, 2016Nov 5, 2016($2,833)
WYNN1604K89 long688Nov 3, 2016Nov 4, 2016($25,991)
AMGN1628J160 long20Oct 28, 2016Oct 29, 2016($34)
CMG1628J375 long56Oct 26, 2016Oct 29, 2016($4,396)
AMGN1628J145 long10Oct 28, 2016Oct 28, 2016$86
BIDU1628J190 long70Oct 25, 2016Oct 27, 2016($1,340)
CMG1628J375 long9Oct 26, 2016Oct 26, 2016$846
BIDU1628J172.5 long1Oct 26, 2016Oct 26, 2016$98
AMGN1628J160 long192Oct 25, 2016Oct 26, 2016$1,188
TSLA1628J200 long2Oct 24, 2016Oct 24, 2016$241
UNP1621J92 long180Oct 20, 2016Oct 22, 2016($3,186)
AMGN1621J162.5 long2Oct 20, 2016Oct 22, 2016($79)
TWTR1621J17 long3Oct 18, 2016Oct 21, 2016$212
EBAY1621J29 long4Oct 20, 2016Oct 21, 2016($32)
WYNN1621J95 long3Oct 18, 2016Oct 20, 2016$83
WYNN1614J93 long540Oct 14, 2016Oct 14, 2016$4,309
TSLA1607J195 long4Oct 7, 2016Oct 7, 2016$90
WYNN1607J98 long20Oct 5, 2016Oct 6, 2016($578)
TSLA1607J212.5 long70Oct 5, 2016Oct 5, 2016$996
WYNN1607J98 long190Oct 4, 2016Oct 5, 2016($1,459)
TSLA1607J210 long35Oct 4, 2016Oct 4, 2016$1,073
AMGN1630I165 long20Sep 30, 2016Sep 30, 2016$572
WYNN1630I96.5 long111Sep 30, 2016Sep 30, 2016$1,379
WYNN1630I100 long110Sep 27, 2016Sep 28, 2016$2,288
BA1630I130 long70Sep 28, 2016Sep 28, 2016$642
TSLA1630I207.5 long30Sep 27, 2016Sep 27, 2016$833
TSLA1630I207.5 long270Sep 27, 2016Sep 27, 2016$352

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.