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RSI Opportunistic

Futures · Started Feb 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.1%
Max Drawdown
35.1%
Trades
20
Win Trades
90.0%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
7.9%

About this strategy

RSI 14 based futures trades. Model is based on a multi-factor RSI entry and exit points. Emerging trends are optimized by re-weighting the factors.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20151.621.07.99.01.910.40.51.21.63.20.774.7
2016-3.4-32.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-34.8
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/24/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age141 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades20
# Profitable18
% Profitable90.0%
Avg trade duration7.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown35.1%
drawdown periodJan 06, 2016 - Feb 19, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)2.1%
Avg win$1,326
Avg loss$9,194

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Sortino Ratio-0.05
Calmar Ratio0.25

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life261.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-91.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity54.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss56.0%
Chance of 20% account loss24.0%
Chance of 30% account loss7.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$9,194
Avg Win$1,326
# Winners18
Sum Trade PL (losers)$18,388
Sum Trade PL (winners)$23,865
Num Months Winners11
# Losers2
% Winners90.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table140

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)10817.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)180.29
Avg Trade Length7.50
Last Trade Ago3864

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.51
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.31
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.01
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats5.66
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.40
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.05
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.14

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df22
t0.56
p0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio1.74
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms14
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.01
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.21
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error21
t(b)-0.85
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.21
Mean0.08
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.25
df22
t0.36
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.67
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.67
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio1.46
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms14
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.01
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error21
t(b)-0.76
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.64
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.88
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.09
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df516
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.86
Sortino ratio0.69
Upside Potential Ratio4.33
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms449
N of observations517
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error515
t(b)1.96
p(b)0.03
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)1.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.07
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df516
t0.51
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.76
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio4.13
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.51
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms449
N of observations517
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error515
t(b)2.07
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.66
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.86
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6841619835781120
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.66897706074859e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.78
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations517
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low57
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high69
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.10
Median0.18
Quartile 30.25
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations14
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.97
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)4.62
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-309172416
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)44
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.71
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.20
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 35 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
NKD H6long1Jan 6, 2016Feb 11, 2016($14,931)
TY H6short1Dec 29, 2015Dec 29, 2015$461
KC H6long1Nov 11, 2015Nov 19, 2015$331
NQ Z5short2Nov 3, 2015Nov 5, 2015$1,153
NQ Z5long1Nov 3, 2015Nov 3, 2015($2)
DX Z5long1Oct 8, 2015Oct 22, 2015$782
VX V5long1Sep 1, 2015Sep 15, 2015($3,473)
VX U5short1Aug 31, 2015Sep 15, 2015$1,748
EU U5short2Aug 16, 2015Aug 18, 2015$945
TFS U5long2Aug 12, 2015Aug 12, 2015$1,786
ES U5long2Jul 24, 2015Jul 29, 2015$2,063
VX N5short2Jul 2, 2015Jul 10, 2015$1,934
VX N5short1Jun 10, 2015Jun 18, 2015$242
VX M5long2Jun 10, 2015Jun 12, 2015$584
DX M5long2May 13, 2015May 19, 2015$3,134
VX K5long2Apr 22, 2015Apr 30, 2015$1,184
TY M5short1Apr 15, 2015Apr 22, 2015$711
VX K5long1Apr 15, 2015Apr 17, 2015$692
QM J5short3Mar 11, 2015Mar 16, 2015$3,876
ES M5short1Feb 24, 2015Mar 6, 2015$2,017

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.