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es lookingup

Futures · Started Feb 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.4%
Max Drawdown
53.3%
Trades
25
Win Trades
76.0%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
7.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20155.04.4-0.94.624.716.610.015.8-37.5-0.731.171.1
201610.113.5-33.8-0.7-9.4-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-29.6
2017-0.8-0.8-0.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.4
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/10/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age141 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades25
# Profitable19
% Profitable76.0%
Avg trade duration3.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown53.4%
drawdown periodOct 02, 2015 - March 19, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)1.4%
Avg win$1,187
Avg loss$2,963

Ratios

W:L ratio1.27
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Sortino Ratio0.03
Calmar Ratio0.44

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life270.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-253.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity114.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,963
Avg Win$1,187
# Winners19
Sum Trade PL (losers)$17,776
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,554
Num Months Winners10
# Losers6
% Winners76.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table139

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4496.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)74.93
Avg Trade Length3.10
Last Trade Ago3751

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.03
Treynor Index-0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.23
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.08
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.77
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats4.27
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.27
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.22
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df29
t0.79
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio2.01
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms23
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.05
r-0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error28
t(b)-1.68
p(b)0.95
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.13
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df29
t0.47
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio0.45
Upside Potential Ratio1.54
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms23
N of observations30
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance-0.04
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error28
t(b)-1.63
p(b)0.94
t(a)1.08
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
Mean0.16
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df671
t0.97
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio0.80
Upside Potential Ratio3.40
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms614
N of observations672
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error670
t(b)-1.32
p(b)0.91
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.12
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df671
t0.74
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio0.59
Upside Potential Ratio3.13
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms614
N of observations672
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error670
t(b)-1.32
p(b)0.91
t(a)0.84
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6819855625879552
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.91570019072863e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations30
Minimum0.71
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-31.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations672
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low43
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high69
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.25
Quartile 10.28
Median0.30
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.25
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.37
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3268.73
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-5.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.98
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.98
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-631965824
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)534
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.77
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 44 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M6short2May 20, 2016May 24, 2016($1,541)
ES M6long1May 19, 2016May 19, 2016$330
ES H6short2Mar 1, 2016Mar 16, 2016($7,116)
ES H6long2Feb 11, 2016Feb 12, 2016$2,659
ES H6long2Jan 7, 2016Jan 8, 2016$1,834
ES H6short2Dec 29, 2015Dec 31, 2015$1,634
ES Z5long2Dec 7, 2015Dec 7, 2015$959
ES Z5long2Dec 3, 2015Dec 4, 2015$1,597
ES Z5short2Oct 2, 2015Oct 8, 2015($7,791)
ES Z5short2Sep 16, 2015Sep 18, 2015$2,984
ES U5short1Jul 31, 2015Aug 7, 2015$1,980
ES U5short1Jul 14, 2015Jul 27, 2015$2,242
ES U5long1Jun 8, 2015Jun 18, 2015$2,142
ES M5short1May 28, 2015Jun 4, 2015$1,367
ES M5long1Mar 24, 2015Mar 25, 2015($971)
ES M5short1Mar 20, 2015Mar 24, 2015$492
ES M5long1Mar 17, 2015Mar 17, 2015$267
ES H5long1Mar 13, 2015Mar 16, 2015$880
ES H5long1Mar 13, 2015Mar 13, 2015$92
ES H5long1Mar 13, 2015Mar 13, 2015($283)
ES H5long1Mar 9, 2015Mar 9, 2015$130
ES H5short1Mar 2, 2015Mar 3, 2015$5
ES H5short1Feb 19, 2015Feb 20, 2015$605
ES H5long1Feb 19, 2015Feb 19, 2015$155
ES H5long1Feb 19, 2015Feb 19, 2015($146)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.