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DAY TRADE emini

Futures · Started Dec 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.2%
Max Drawdown
60.2%
Trades
207
Win Trades
68.6%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
4.9%

About this strategy

Since 10th March all trades have used tighter stops.
Stops of up to approx. 15 points maximum will be used in future.
This gives the system much better and consistent performance.
You can see the results of the new stop levels.

The system was rescaled (reduced the equity) by around 50%. It will still trade only 1 contract.

Only 1 S&P 500 emini futures contract at a time and does NOT hold positions in to the next session. It is designed for the traders with a small account. The system trades frequently. You can hold one S&P emini contract from 5 pm Central Time until 4.15 Central Time the next day for as little as $500. Since 10th March all trades have used tighter stops.
Stops of up to approx. 15 points maximum will be used in future.
This gives the system much better and consistent performance.
You can see the results of the new stop levels.

View our other systems:

1. BOB DYLAN collective2.com/cgi-perl/system46106678
2. THE ROLLING STONES collective2.com/cgi-perl/system75421760
3. U 2 SP500 collective2.com/details/98753698

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201410.710.7
201549.85.6-7.5-0.8-2.78.8-8.7-5.9-4.0-6.2-32.9-9.4-27.8
2016-4.333.16.1-5.76.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.035.2
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/11/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,244
Age143 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades207
# Profitable142
% Profitable68.6%
Avg trade duration5.5 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown60.2%
drawdown periodFeb 05, 2015 - Feb 08, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)5.2%
Avg win$212
Avg loss$377

Ratios

W:L ratio1.23
Sharpe Ratio0.02
Sortino Ratio0.03
Calmar Ratio0.75

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life276.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-0.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity66.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)369
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$377
Avg Win$212
# Winners142
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,504
Sum Trade PL (winners)$30,155
Num Months Winners7
# Losers65
% Winners68.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table142

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)330.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.51
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago3770

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades10.73
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.61
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.95
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.59
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.84
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.45
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df24
t1.28
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio2.63
Upside Potential Ratio4.15
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms17
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance-0.01
r-0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.47
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error23
t(b)-0.66
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.47
Mean0.34
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.76
df24
t1.14
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio1.86
Upside Potential Ratio3.35
Upside part of mean0.61
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms17
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance-0.01
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error23
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.39
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.17
df737
t1.72
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.51
Sortino ratio1.75
Upside Potential Ratio6.49
Upside part of mean1.43
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms139
N negative terms599
N of observations738
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error736
t(b)4.75
p(b)0
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.80
Treynor index (mean / b)0.96
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean0.33
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.01
df737
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.35
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio6.13
Upside part of mean1.40
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms139
N negative terms599
N of observations738
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error736
t(b)4.82
p(b)0
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)0.81
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22251994788659e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.17483994752678e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.61
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.22
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.61
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations738
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low104
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high139
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.07
Median0.09
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.06
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.47
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)368
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.42
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.06
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.41
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.63
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 347 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M6long1May 6, 2016May 6, 2016$517
ES M6long1Apr 28, 2016Apr 28, 2016$455
ES M6long1Apr 7, 2016Apr 7, 2016($583)
ES M6short1Mar 22, 2016Mar 22, 2016($71)
ES M6short1Mar 21, 2016Mar 22, 2016$542
ES M6short1Mar 21, 2016Mar 21, 2016$205
ES M6short1Mar 18, 2016Mar 18, 2016($146)
ES H6long1Feb 11, 2016Feb 11, 2016$655
ES H6long1Feb 8, 2016Feb 8, 2016$867
ES H6long1Dec 17, 2015Dec 17, 2015($121)
ES H6long1Dec 17, 2015Dec 17, 2015$167
ES H6long1Dec 11, 2015Dec 11, 2015($571)
ES Z5long1Dec 9, 2015Dec 9, 2015($308)
ES Z5long1Dec 8, 2015Dec 8, 2015$542
ES Z5long1Dec 8, 2015Dec 8, 2015($196)
ES Z5long1Dec 7, 2015Dec 7, 2015$142
ES Z5long1Dec 4, 2015Dec 4, 2015$492
ES Z5long1Dec 3, 2015Dec 3, 2015$105
ES Z5long1Dec 2, 2015Dec 2, 2015($571)
ES Z5long1Dec 1, 2015Dec 1, 2015$130
ES Z5long1Nov 25, 2015Nov 25, 2015($133)
ES Z5long1Nov 13, 2015Nov 13, 2015($649)
ES Z5long1Nov 12, 2015Nov 12, 2015($808)
ES Z5long1Nov 11, 2015Nov 11, 2015($208)
ES Z5long1Nov 11, 2015Nov 11, 2015($674)
ES Z5long1Nov 10, 2015Nov 10, 2015$255
ES Z5long1Nov 9, 2015Nov 9, 2015$399
ES Z5long1Nov 9, 2015Nov 9, 2015($671)
ES Z5short1Nov 6, 2015Nov 6, 2015$205
ES Z5long1Nov 5, 2015Nov 5, 2015($721)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.