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Freedom EURUSD

Forex · Started Sep 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-24.1%
Max Drawdown
57.6%
Trades
119
Win Trades
75.6%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
4.9%

About this strategy

System based on fundamental and technical analysis. My indicators provide 10-15 trades per month depending on the market.

Any questions please let me know.

Q: What is the trading size?
A: 0.2 lot per trade. But you can scale it up or down, when you setup auto trading.
Q: I can see that some days 8-12 mini lots have been traded. Do you use martingale ?
A: NO , it shows total of trades in one day, INCLUDING intraday scalping.
Q: What minimal amount of cash in my Broker Account do you suggest?
A: Minimum 1000$ with trade multiplier at 50% (please read below)
Q: When setting up auto-trading, how much trade multiplier should I choose?
A: There is 2 different risk/reward, I suggest:
BALANCED: 0.1 lot every 2000$ on your account.
AGGRESSIVE: 0.1 lot every 1000$ on your account.

Examples:
Freedom EURUSD trading size is 0.2 lots per trade:

2000$ account:
Balanced: 50% trade multiplier (half system size, 0.1 lot per trade)
Aggressive: 100% trade multiplier (1:1 system size, 0.2 lots per trade)

4000$ account:
Balanced: 100% trade multiplier
Aggressive: 200% trade multiplier

8000$ account:
Balanced: 200% trade multiplier
Aggressive: 400% trade multiplier

And so on..

Q: Is there any stop loss on your system ?
A: Yes, Stop Loss and TakeProfits are put manually by myself, or with the help of my ExpertAdvisor, witch helps me setting a more precise Stop Loss and Take Profit. The stop loss range is between 80 and 250 pips. Please note that when is the Expert Advisor who sets the SL and TP, you dont see them because they are Virtual. (in the computer memory). All the trades are started manually.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20142.35.07.44.120.3
20156.37.02.8-31.6-4.3-20.60.00.00.00.00.00.0-39.3
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/16/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age146 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades119
# Profitable90
% Profitable75.6%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown57.6%
drawdown periodMarch 13, 2015 - May 08, 2015
Cumul. Return-21.4%
Avg win$63
Avg loss$203

Ratios

W:L ratio0.96
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Sortino Ratio-0.32
Calmar Ratio-0.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life283.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-26.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-24.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity103.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss93.0%
Chance of 20% account loss62.0%
Chance of 30% account loss31.0%
Chance of 40% account loss8.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated91.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)609
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)937
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)780

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$203
Avg Win$63
# Winners90
Sum Trade PL (losers)$5,879
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,646
Num Months Winners7
# Losers29
% Winners75.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table144

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2047.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)34.12
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago4119

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index6.23

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-37.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.27
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats75.46
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.83
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.90
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.17
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df8
t0.44
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms2
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.42
DF error7
t(b)-0.10
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.12
SD0.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df8
t0.16
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.43
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio1.69
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms2
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.67
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.51
DF error7
t(b)-0.11
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.16
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.32
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean0.01
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df280
t0.03
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.20
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio6.25
Upside part of mean1.84
Downside part of mean-1.83
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms130
N negative terms151
N of observations281
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error279
t(b)-0.09
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.03
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean-0.07
SD0.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.17
df280
t-0.15
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio-0.22
Upside Potential Ratio5.87
Upside part of mean1.81
Downside part of mean-1.88
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms130
N negative terms151
N of observations281
Mean of predictor0.04
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.41
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error279
t(b)-0.03
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.82
Treynor index (mean / b)13.99
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean-0.48
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.95
df171
t-0.67
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio-1.29
Upside Potential Ratio5.84
Upside part of mean2.16
Downside part of mean-2.64
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms101
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.48
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.47
Mean Square Error0.25
DF error170
t(b)-0.53
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.66
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.93
Treynor index (mean / b)2.77
Jensen alpha (a)-0.47
Mean-0.60
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.19
df171
t-0.85
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio-1.56
Upside Potential Ratio5.44
Upside part of mean2.11
Downside part of mean-2.71
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms101
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion-0.60
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.60
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error170
t(b)-0.46
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.84
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.79
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)4.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.60
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.65
Quartile 11.02
Median1.06
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.65
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.53
Number of observations281
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations172
Minimum0.87
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.44
Quartile 10.44
Median0.44
Quartile 30.44
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.41
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)56
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.44
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.27
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.51
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.96

Trading record

Placed 247 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/USD short60May 18, 2015Jun 17, 2015$409
GBP/JPY long80May 11, 2015May 22, 2015$3
EUR/CAD short40May 20, 2015May 22, 2015($204)
AUD/USD long60May 12, 2015May 19, 2015($33)
NZD/JPY short60May 6, 2015May 13, 2015$2
GBP/USD long20May 12, 2015May 12, 2015$49
AUD/USD long60May 12, 2015May 12, 2015($55)
GBP/USD long20May 11, 2015May 12, 2015$232
GBP/JPY short40May 7, 2015May 7, 2015($3)
EUR/GBP long20May 6, 2015May 7, 2015($65)
AUD/USD short40May 5, 2015May 6, 2015($621)
USD/JPY long60May 5, 2015May 5, 2015($2)
USD/CAD long20May 4, 2015May 5, 2015($143)
EUR/USD short20May 5, 2015May 5, 2015($170)
GBP/JPY short40May 4, 2015May 5, 2015($2)
EUR/USD short60Apr 30, 2015May 1, 2015($267)
EUR/USD short20Apr 30, 2015Apr 30, 2015$177
EUR/USD short20Apr 29, 2015Apr 30, 2015($210)
AUD/USD short20Apr 28, 2015Apr 29, 2015($215)
EUR/USD short80Apr 29, 2015Apr 29, 2015($456)
EUR/USD short20Apr 29, 2015Apr 29, 2015$19
EUR/USD short20Apr 29, 2015Apr 29, 2015$15
GBP/USD short20Apr 28, 2015Apr 28, 2015$23
EUR/USD short40Apr 27, 2015Apr 27, 2015$37
EUR/AUD short20Apr 23, 2015Apr 27, 2015$63
NZD/USD short20Apr 26, 2015Apr 26, 2015($17)
NZD/USD short20Apr 22, 2015Apr 26, 2015$182
EUR/USD short20Apr 23, 2015Apr 23, 2015$14
EUR/USD short20Apr 23, 2015Apr 23, 2015$18
EUR/USD long20Apr 21, 2015Apr 21, 2015$24

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.