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Test System 11234

Futures · Started Jan 2015

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-23.1%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
31
Win Trades
71.0%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
2.9%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201513.1-0.34.53.48.7-8.5-15.1-111.3-790.70.00.00.0-19.8
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/6/2015
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age142 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades31
# Profitable22
% Profitable71.0%
Avg trade duration3.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodAug 27, 2015 - Sept 17, 2015
Cumul. Return-18.8%
Avg win$593
Avg loss$1,823

Ratios

W:L ratio0.79
Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Sortino Ratio-0.35
Calmar Ratio-0.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life282.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-20.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-23.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity68.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)637
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)381

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,823
Avg Win$592
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$16,403
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,035
Num Months Winners4
# Losers9
% Winners71.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table8

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5440.80
Avg Position Time (hrs)90.68
Avg Trade Length3.80
Last Trade Ago4006

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.21
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-24.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats45.82
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats86.51
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades4.46
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.99
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean28841.60
SD24978.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df8
t1.00
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.36
Sortino ratio24808.70
Upside Potential Ratio24810
Upside part of mean28843.10
Downside part of mean-1.51
Upside SD24978.50
Downside SD1.16
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor-0.04
Mean of criterion28841.60
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion24978.60
Covariance1320.86
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)56627.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)31235.60
Mean Square Error627580992
DF error7
t(b)0.98
p(b)0.18
t(a)1.08
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-80504.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta193759
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-37411.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha99882.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)31235.60
Mean-0.20
SD17.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df8
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio-0.02
Upside Potential Ratio1.15
Upside part of mean13.72
Downside part of mean-13.92
Upside SD11.53
Downside SD11.90
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion17.57
Covariance2.32
r0.83
b (slope, estimate of beta)92.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.70
Mean Square Error108.52
DF error7
t(b)3.97
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta37.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta146.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-23.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha33.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.00
Jensen alpha (a)4.70
VaR(95%)1.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.26
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.57
Mean24771.20
SD13729.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.80
df283
t1.64
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.96
Sortino ratio10828.90
Upside Potential Ratio10832.20
Upside part of mean24778.90
Downside part of mean-7.69
Upside SD13770.40
Downside SD2.29
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms249
N of observations284
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion24771.20
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion13729.70
Covariance495.46
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)21645.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)7944.04
Mean Square Error178410000
DF error282
t(b)4.12
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.66
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta11315.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta31975.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4600.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha53273.90
Treynor index (mean / b)1.14
Jensen alpha (a)24336.60
Mean-0.19
SD23.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df283
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio-0.01
Upside Potential Ratio2.21
Upside part of mean35.88
Downside part of mean-36.07
Upside SD16.75
Downside SD16.25
N nonnegative terms35
N negative terms249
N of observations284
Mean of predictor0.01
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion23.38
Covariance1.45
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)63.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.73
Mean Square Error457.20
DF error282
t(b)7.51
p(b)0
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta46.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta79.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-47.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha45.59
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.73
VaR(95%)0.87
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.92
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean40900.80
SD17607.90
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.31
df171
t1.64
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.10
Sortino ratio13918.40
Upside Potential Ratio13922.70
Upside part of mean40913.30
Downside part of mean-12.52
Upside SD17694.60
Downside SD2.94
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms146
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.05
Mean of criterion40900.80
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion17607.90
Covariance827.92
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)29529.90
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)42272.90
Mean Square Error287271008
DF error170
t(b)3.81
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta14249.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta44810.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5048.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha89594.70
Treynor index (mean / b)1.39
Jensen alpha (a)42272.90
Mean-0.72
SD30.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df171
t-0.02
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.81
Upside part of mean58.65
Downside part of mean-59.37
Upside SD21.53
Downside SD20.89
N nonnegative terms26
N negative terms146
N of observations172
Mean of predictor-0.06
Mean of criterion-0.72
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion30.08
Covariance2.39
r0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)85.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.42
Mean Square Error705.46
DF error170
t(b)7.03
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.12
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta61.16
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta108.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-69.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha78.58
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.01
Jensen alpha (a)4.42
VaR(95%)0.93
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.96
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.10
Maximum21633
Mean of quarter 10.62
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 410817.10
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high21633
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.26
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.96
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations284
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum9781
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4289.13
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high35
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high585.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations172
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum9781
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4476.74
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.78
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high787.79
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.53
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.26
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)21
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.17
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.51
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.53

Trading record

Placed 54 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U5long2Aug 21, 2015Sep 18, 2015($6,591)
EMD U5long2Aug 21, 2015Sep 17, 2015$784
NQ U5long2Aug 21, 2015Sep 17, 2015$1,594
TFS U5long2Aug 21, 2015Aug 21, 2015($316)
TFS U5long1Aug 20, 2015Aug 20, 2015($228)
NQ U5long1Aug 20, 2015Aug 20, 2015($348)
EMD U5long1Aug 20, 2015Aug 20, 2015($348)
TFS U5long2Jul 24, 2015Jul 28, 2015($4,476)
TFS U5long2Jun 29, 2015Jun 30, 2015$1,364
ES U5long2Jun 12, 2015Jun 15, 2015($1,866)
ES M5long2Jun 4, 2015Jun 8, 2015($1,204)
YM M5long2Jun 4, 2015Jun 8, 2015($1,146)
EMD M5long2Jun 4, 2015Jun 5, 2015$164
YM M5long2May 26, 2015May 27, 2015$84
ES M5long2May 26, 2015May 27, 2015$84
YM M5long2May 6, 2015May 7, 2015$144
NQ M5long2May 6, 2015May 7, 2015$164
EMD M5long2May 6, 2015May 6, 2015$244
EMD M5long2May 6, 2015May 6, 2015$1,104
ES M5long2May 5, 2015May 6, 2015$559
TFS M5long2May 5, 2015May 6, 2015$584
TFS M5long2Apr 30, 2015May 1, 2015$304
EMD M5long2Apr 30, 2015May 1, 2015$4
EMD M5long4Apr 1, 2015Apr 2, 2015$688
EMD H5long2Mar 10, 2015Mar 11, 2015$504
TFS H5long2Mar 10, 2015Mar 11, 2015$404
ES H5long2Mar 6, 2015Mar 9, 2015$159
EMD H5long1Mar 6, 2015Mar 9, 2015$172
NQ H5long2Mar 6, 2015Mar 9, 2015$174
EMD H5long2Jan 6, 2015Jan 7, 2015$1,984

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.