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Simple Swing

Stocks · Started Aug 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.4%
Max Drawdown
16.3%
Trades
237
Win Trades
40.1%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
18.5%

About this strategy

A Simple Swing system designed to be easy to trade while providing excellent risk adjusted returns.

Risk control is the primary focus of Simple Swing.

The system is entirely automated. Nothing is discretionary. Nothing is left to chance.

Simple Swing has been developed to provide consistent long term gains while strictly controlling risk.

Consideration has also been given to making the system easy to follow and tradable.

Allow us to prove ourselves - Free trials available

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20143.5-1.82.41.93.810.2
20151.17.70.1-0.2-1.8-3.35.4-0.0-3.72.46.81.616.5
2016-2.40.66.88.10.4-2.9-4.00.2-3.7-3.41.31.72.0
20171.74.21.52.00.2-7.71.1-2.00.60.71.7-1.71.8
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/14/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age147 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades237
# Profitable95
% Profitable40.1%
Avg trade duration3.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.3%
drawdown periodMay 17, 2017 - Oct 26, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)2.4%
Avg win$461
Avg loss$228

Ratios

W:L ratio1.37
Sharpe Ratio0.09
Sortino Ratio0.13
Calmar Ratio0.66

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life292.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-261.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss6.7%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated29.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$228
Avg Win$461
# Winners95
Sum Trade PL (losers)$32,319
Sum Trade PL (winners)$43,765
Num Months Winners27
# Losers142
% Winners40.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct459

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table146

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5068.77
Avg Position Time (hrs)84.48
Avg Trade Length3.50
Last Trade Ago3200

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index17.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.14
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats23.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.85
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.37
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df52
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.55
Sortino ratio1.10
Upside Potential Ratio2.65
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms30
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error51
t(b)0.81
p(b)0.21
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)1.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.06
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df52
t1.21
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio0.98
Upside Potential Ratio2.51
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms23
N negative terms30
N of observations53
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error51
t(b)0.88
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.06
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df1178
t1.50
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio7.31
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms371
N negative terms808
N of observations1179
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1177
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)148.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.06
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df1178
t1.41
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.99
Upside Potential Ratio7.18
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms371
N negative terms808
N of observations1179
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1177
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.40
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)101.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6780069733203968
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.65646745004213e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations53
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations1179
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low94
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high131
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations35
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-419978144
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)162
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.78
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.65
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.66
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 382 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AAPL short120Dec 1, 2017Dec 15, 2017($582)
AAPL long193Nov 21, 2017Nov 27, 2017$172
AAPL short201Nov 17, 2017Nov 21, 2017($96)
AAPL long134Nov 2, 2017Nov 9, 2017$796
AAPL long181Oct 26, 2017Nov 1, 2017$1,824
AAPL short209Oct 25, 2017Oct 26, 2017($272)
AAPL long182Oct 24, 2017Oct 25, 2017($146)
AAPL short202Oct 23, 2017Oct 24, 2017($184)
AAPL long220Oct 23, 2017Oct 23, 2017($286)
AAPL short218Oct 20, 2017Oct 23, 2017($268)
AAPL long279Oct 13, 2017Oct 19, 2017($159)
AAPL long258Oct 11, 2017Oct 13, 2017$70
AAPL long200Oct 5, 2017Oct 10, 2017$72
AAPL short245Oct 4, 2017Oct 5, 2017($277)
AAPL long266Oct 2, 2017Oct 4, 2017($122)
AAPL short191Oct 2, 2017Oct 2, 2017($168)
AAPL long140Sep 26, 2017Oct 2, 2017$53
AAPL long215Sep 15, 2017Sep 15, 2017($185)
AAPL short113Sep 12, 2017Sep 15, 2017$120
AAPL long150Sep 11, 2017Sep 12, 2017($47)
AAPL short172Sep 7, 2017Sep 11, 2017$109
AAPL long190Aug 25, 2017Aug 29, 2017($67)
AAPL long130Aug 22, 2017Aug 24, 2017($92)
AAPL short156Aug 18, 2017Aug 22, 2017($114)
AAPL long209Aug 16, 2017Aug 17, 2017($796)
AAPL long182Aug 7, 2017Aug 10, 2017$288
AAPL long246Jul 24, 2017Jul 27, 2017$103
AAPL long271Jul 19, 2017Jul 21, 2017($189)
AAPL long215Jul 7, 2017Jul 18, 2017$1,070
AAPL short198Jul 6, 2017Jul 7, 2017($250)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.