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RSC Stocks

Stocks · Started Feb 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.6%
Max Drawdown
19.0%
Trades
82
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
7.9%

About this strategy

The system uses the weekly charts first to gauge the direction of the market using divergence signals. These signals give a list of stocks that are potentially at the beginning of a significant reverse. Next we zoom into the daily charts looking for an entry using a price action signal supported by momentum or reversal indicators. The reversal signals are more aggressive but offer a smaller stop and larger targets. The minimum risk reward ratio is 1:2. All trades come with a firm stop and target though depending on market conditions a break even move is often made when the trade has hit the 1:1 risk- reward level.

The RSC Stock System for scaling purposes is based on a maximum of 3% risk. For example, on a 10K account we look to risk no more than $100 per stop per trade on a maximum of 3 trades at any given time. I will add another trade if one is available when an existing live trade moves to break even. Please note in order to buy enough stocks to reach the $100 stop size, I do use up to 1.75 in leverage on the account. Once the system trades up to 15K, we will risk $150 per trade maximum and continue to increase this as the system climbs to 20K ($200), 25K ($250) etc. The goal is to keep the losses small and to growth the account 2-5% a month.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20164.31.96.5-1.21.30.4-0.32.00.34.1-0.420.3
2017-2.1-2.2-0.7-0.0-1.6-3.10.2-3.1-1.8-4.51.4-0.2-16.4
2018-1.7-0.60.0-1.2-0.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-4.1
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/6/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$9,491
Age129 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades82
# Profitable41
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration9.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown19.0%
drawdown periodDec 03, 2016 - May 26, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)2.6%
Avg win$131
Avg loss$92

Ratios

W:L ratio1.39
Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Sortino Ratio-0.87
Calmar Ratio0.37

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life308.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-40.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity32.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss4.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)485
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)516
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)273

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$92
Avg Win$131
# Winners41
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,776
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,359
Num Months Winners10
# Losers41
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-124

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table128

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)14298.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)238.30
Avg Trade Length9.90
Last Trade Ago3152

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index1.28

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.79
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.10
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.65
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.26

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df22
t0.70
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.91
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio2.91
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms11
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error21
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.51
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)1.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.04
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df22
t0.65
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.97
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio0.84
Upside Potential Ratio2.82
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms11
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.08
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error21
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.51
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)3.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.04
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df520
t0.85
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.99
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio8.46
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms184
N negative terms337
N of observations521
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error519
t(b)-1.55
p(b)0.94
t(a)0.99
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.57
df520
t0.80
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.96
Upside Potential Ratio8.39
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms184
N negative terms337
N of observations521
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error519
t(b)-1.57
p(b)0.94
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.13
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.97
df130
t-2.11
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Sortino ratio-3.49
Upside Potential Ratio3.51
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms100
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.71
p(b)0.54
t(a)-2.04
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)6.86
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
Mean-0.13
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.99
df130
t-2.13
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Sortino ratio-3.50
Upside Potential Ratio3.49
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms31
N negative terms100
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-0.71
p(b)0.54
t(a)-2.06
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)6.93
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.96
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations521
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low42
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high51
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low23
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.07
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.67
Number of observations1
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.07
Median0.07
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)539
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.65
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.49
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.70
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.06
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-16.29

Trading record

Placed 85 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SIRI short625Jan 18, 2018Jan 19, 2018($105)
KR long93Nov 3, 2017Dec 6, 2017$330
LNC short47Nov 7, 2017Nov 29, 2017($12)
PFG short59Nov 24, 2017Nov 28, 2017($102)
NDAQ long75Oct 25, 2017Oct 26, 2017($106)
MRK long77Oct 23, 2017Oct 24, 2017($103)
BSX short294Oct 11, 2017Oct 19, 2017($106)
CERN short102Oct 4, 2017Oct 13, 2017($125)
GGP long93Sep 18, 2017Oct 2, 2017($118)
AKAM long48Sep 18, 2017Oct 2, 2017$106
AAPL short15Sep 25, 2017Oct 2, 2017($55)
ALXN short10Aug 10, 2017Aug 31, 2017($103)
DD short106Aug 24, 2017Aug 31, 2017($107)
DD short44Jul 31, 2017Aug 23, 2017$0
HUM short15Jul 18, 2017Jul 28, 2017$5
DPS long48Jul 18, 2017Jul 27, 2017$77
LUV short83Jun 28, 2017Jul 5, 2017($72)
PSA long13Jun 19, 2017Jul 3, 2017$2
K long40May 22, 2017Jun 16, 2017$4
MCO short42Jun 12, 2017Jun 13, 2017($101)
AFL short101Jun 7, 2017Jun 9, 2017($104)
EUR/GBP long10May 15, 2017May 16, 2017$0
CHRW long111May 10, 2017May 10, 2017($101)
BEN short127May 8, 2017May 9, 2017($108)
PG short75Mar 27, 2017Apr 20, 2017$101
AEE short185Apr 19, 2017Apr 20, 2017$193
EA short63Apr 10, 2017Apr 20, 2017($96)
COST short30Mar 27, 2017Apr 10, 2017($126)
EMN short40Mar 7, 2017Mar 28, 2017$0
SWN long244Feb 22, 2017Feb 23, 2017($105)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.