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Goldmetre B

Futures · Started Feb 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.9%
Max Drawdown
65.1%
Trades
670
Win Trades
47.3%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
5.3%

About this strategy

1 contract 100 oz Gold strategy. Developed with 50% out of sample data.
This strategy has a stop loss.
A very robust strategy.

2 year hypothetical equity curve:

http://screencast.com/t/4EtAQj1b

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2014-4.626.69.83.6-7.515.12.5-1.312.1-6.515.979.9
20150.4-16.5-9.6-28.2-17.3-1.6-1.70.00.00.00.00.0-56.5
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/26/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age152 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades670
# Profitable317
% Profitable47.3%
Avg trade duration9.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown65.0%
drawdown periodJan 06, 2015 - May 18, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.9%
Avg win$493
Avg loss$414

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Sortino Ratio-0.30
Calmar Ratio0.27

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life315.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-338.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity148.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$414
Avg Win$493
# Winners317
Sum Trade PL (losers)$146,017
Sum Trade PL (winners)$156,352
Num Months Winners8
# Losers353
% Winners47.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table151

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)565.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)9.43
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago4111

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index0.91

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades50.80
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.29
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats42.79
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats49.99
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.48
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df34
t0.81
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.62
Sortino ratio0.83
Upside Potential Ratio2.15
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms26
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error33
t(b)-0.54
p(b)0.70
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.09
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.35
df34
t0.61
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio0.57
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms26
N of observations35
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error33
t(b)-0.45
p(b)0.67
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.11
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df783
t0.94
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.68
Sortino ratio0.82
Upside Potential Ratio6.16
Upside part of mean0.80
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms167
N negative terms617
N of observations784
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error782
t(b)-0.62
p(b)0.73
t(a)0.99
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.89
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.09
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df783
t0.77
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.66
Upside Potential Ratio5.95
Upside part of mean0.79
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms167
N negative terms617
N of observations784
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error782
t(b)-0.57
p(b)0.72
t(a)0.81
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-8.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821219814866944
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.08753051794034e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations35
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations784
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low156
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high168
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.16
Median0.23
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.36
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.33
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-491585184
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)132
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.95
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.03
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1170 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QGC M5long1May 29, 2015May 30, 2015($58)
QGC M5short2May 29, 2015May 29, 2015($176)
QGC M5long1May 29, 2015May 29, 2015($118)
QGC M5short1May 28, 2015May 28, 2015$122
QGC M5long1May 27, 2015May 27, 2015($178)
QGC M5short1May 27, 2015May 27, 2015$132
QGC M5long1May 26, 2015May 26, 2015($18)
QGC M5short1May 26, 2015May 26, 2015$1,722
QGC M5long1May 25, 2015May 25, 2015($148)
QGC M5short1May 25, 2015May 25, 2015($248)
QGC M5long1May 22, 2015May 24, 2015($738)
QGC M5long1May 22, 2015May 22, 2015$422
QGC M5short2May 21, 2015May 22, 2015$544
QGC M5long1May 21, 2015May 21, 2015($78)
QGC M5long1May 20, 2015May 20, 2015$162
QGC M5short2May 20, 2015May 20, 2015($516)
QGC M5long1May 19, 2015May 20, 2015($238)
QGC M5short4May 18, 2015May 19, 2015$2,698
QGC M5long1May 18, 2015May 18, 2015($408)
QGC M5long1May 15, 2015May 17, 2015$82
QGC M5short1May 15, 2015May 15, 2015$192
QGC M5long1May 14, 2015May 14, 2015($598)
QGC M5short1May 14, 2015May 14, 2015($798)
QGC M5long1May 13, 2015May 13, 2015($558)
QGC M5short1May 13, 2015May 13, 2015($2,268)
QGC M5long1May 12, 2015May 12, 2015($8)
QGC M5short1May 12, 2015May 12, 2015($988)
QGC M5long1May 11, 2015May 11, 2015($748)
QGC M5long1May 8, 2015May 10, 2015($178)
QGC M5long1May 8, 2015May 8, 2015$522

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.