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Mozart

Stocks · Started Feb 2014

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
7.5%
Max Drawdown
54.0%
Trades
263
Win Trades
66.9%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
23.2%

About this strategy

Mozart was designed to adapt to changing market conditions.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201454.3-0.13.6-0.1-0.10.44.2-2.1-7.82.52.157.2
2015-3.131.010.02.62.6-3.33.93.52.80.75.9-2.563.2
2016-0.83.92.0-0.5-4.24.21.1-0.91.6-0.62.0-0.47.1
20174.3-4.411.12.0-0.50.60.23.30.42.93.20.825.9
20182.1-44.8-0.84.88.512.90.00.00.00.00.00.0-28.2
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/6/2014
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age153 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades263
# Profitable176
% Profitable66.9%
Avg trade duration15.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown54.0%
drawdown periodFeb 01, 2018 - Feb 09, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)7.5%
Avg win$2,608
Avg loss$3,510

Ratios

W:L ratio1.53
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Sortino Ratio0.35
Calmar Ratio0.31

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life331.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-185.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)7.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity43.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,510
Avg Win$2,608
# Winners176
Sum Trade PL (losers)$305,331
Sum Trade PL (winners)$459,011
Num Months Winners35
# Losers87
% Winners66.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct8800

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table151

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)22561.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)376.02
Avg Trade Length15.70
Last Trade Ago2992

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.09
Treynor Index0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.60
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.48
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.73
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.62
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.55
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.15

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.16
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df63
t1.36
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.44
Sortino ratio0.84
Upside Potential Ratio1.61
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms34
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error62
t(b)0.89
p(b)0.19
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.12
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.38
df63
t0.88
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio1.17
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms34
N of observations64
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error62
t(b)1.13
p(b)0.13
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.52
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.13
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.15
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df1403
t1.46
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio0.79
Upside Potential Ratio3.33
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms535
N negative terms869
N of observations1404
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1402
t(b)3.13
p(b)0.46
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.83
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.12
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df1403
t0.99
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio2.67
Upside part of mean0.64
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms535
N negative terms869
N of observations1404
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1402
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)1.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.09
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.96
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6821474291679232
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.07276315338451e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations64
Minimum0.57
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.74
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.93
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.56
Number of observations1404
Minimum0.60
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low167
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high185
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.06
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations54
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-424073536
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)8
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.62
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.98
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.59
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 688 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VRTX long320May 25, 2018Jun 22, 2018$804
ACWI long1500Apr 9, 2018Jun 22, 2018$535
XHB long2000Apr 26, 2018Jun 22, 2018$35
IQ long3500May 18, 2018Jun 11, 2018$33,105
FNG long4500Apr 26, 2018Jun 11, 2018$6,479
ITA long200Mar 19, 2018Apr 19, 2018$1,361
AMZN long48Mar 23, 2018Apr 19, 2018$2,197
MSI long850Mar 19, 2018Apr 18, 2018$4,395
CPB long2300Mar 5, 2018Apr 10, 2018($1,255)
IWM long330Mar 2, 2018Mar 12, 2018$2,165
AMP long320Mar 5, 2018Mar 12, 2018$1,524
SPXU short11000Feb 9, 2018Mar 1, 2018$21,471
EEM long1000Jan 31, 2018Mar 1, 2018($2,733)
BLK long90Jan 31, 2018Feb 28, 2018($508)
XIV long1600Jan 31, 2018Feb 6, 2018($169,465)
ACN long300Jan 31, 2018Feb 6, 2018($2,954)
XLY long450Feb 5, 2018Feb 6, 2018($1,209)
XLE long600Feb 1, 2018Feb 6, 2018($4,417)
LIVN long600Jan 19, 2018Jan 24, 2018$1,882
XLU long1300Jan 12, 2018Jan 24, 2018($230)
WYNN long300Jan 10, 2018Jan 16, 2018$2,709
FB long250Dec 11, 2017Jan 3, 2018$1,088
NFLX long300Dec 13, 2017Jan 3, 2018$5,039
AKS short4000Dec 12, 2017Jan 3, 2018($4,003)
O long700Dec 11, 2017Jan 3, 2018$695
MPC long800Dec 7, 2017Dec 8, 2017$867
MPC long800Dec 1, 2017Dec 5, 2017$1,656
XIV long900Dec 1, 2017Dec 5, 2017$5,642
JNJ long350Oct 31, 2017Nov 9, 2017$187
HON long500Oct 31, 2017Nov 7, 2017$794

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.