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AT Pro

Futures · Started Nov 2013

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
20.1%
Max Drawdown
26.0%
Trades
408
Win Trades
67.2%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
16.1%

About this strategy

ATPro is a systematic, non-discretionary trading strategy designed to take advantage of short term mispricing of markets. Multiple risk controls are used to determine position sizes. When there are no high probability trades, the program is out of the market awaiting better opportunities. The system is designed to maximize long-term, compounded returns with manageable drawdowns and minimal transaction costs. The program trades over 25 domestic U.S. futures contracts, with funds shifted to those markets showing the best opportunities. Protective stops are generally not placed on positions by the system. The minimum capital commitment to this program should be at least one third of the Total System Equity shown for the account. However, less capital will lead to greater volatility and larger percentage drawdowns. Anything less could also lead to under-margined trades. Scaling at less than 100% is not recommended.

ATPro is designed to make money and not just to make trades. For a more active trading system, see ST Pro system.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201322.816.543.1
201414.0-1.712.15.72.2-16.92.70.12.9-5.64.3-0.117.3
20150.4-5.013.5-8.77.513.86.7-5.116.3-6.20.21.435.7
2016-1.9-1.2-2.04.9-3.61.7-0.4-4.30.3-4.8-1.20.9-11.2
20173.8-0.7-8.35.31.5-2.5-0.30.00.00.00.00.0-1.8
20180.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.0-0.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/2/2013
Suggested Minimum Capital$26,822
Age156 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades408
# Profitable274
% Profitable67.2%
Avg trade duration2.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown26.0%
drawdown periodMay 21, 2014 - Feb 17, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)20.1%
Avg win$494
Avg loss$713

Ratios

W:L ratio1.42
Sharpe Ratio0.30
Sortino Ratio0.52
Calmar Ratio0.72

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life335.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)58.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)20.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity20.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss37.0%
Chance of 20% account loss14.0%
Chance of 30% account loss2.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)732
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)516

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$713
Avg Win$494
# Winners274
Sum Trade PL (losers)$95,499
Sum Trade PL (winners)$135,292
Num Months Winners26
# Losers134
% Winners67.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table155

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3422.72
Avg Position Time (hrs)57.04
Avg Trade Length2.40
Last Trade Ago3353

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-0.91

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.83
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.68
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats87.32
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats43.17
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.60
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.48
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.17

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.24
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df43
t2.09
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio2.86
Upside Potential Ratio4.64
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms20
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error42
t(b)-1.18
p(b)0.88
t(a)2.29
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
Mean0.21
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df43
t1.99
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio2.50
Upside Potential Ratio4.27
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms24
N negative terms20
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance-0.00
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error42
t(b)-1.21
p(b)0.88
t(a)2.18
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.23
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.21
df964
t2.32
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio2.16
Upside Potential Ratio7.64
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms328
N negative terms637
N of observations965
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error963
t(b)-1.51
p(b)0.93
t(a)2.38
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
Mean0.21
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df964
t2.17
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.95
Upside Potential Ratio7.41
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms328
N negative terms637
N of observations965
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error963
t(b)-1.54
p(b)0.94
t(a)2.22
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.86
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.07
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.83
df130
t-0.59
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio-1.19
Upside Potential Ratio4.05
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms109
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.57
t(a)-0.46
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.08
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.87
df130
t-0.62
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio-1.24
Upside Potential Ratio3.99
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms109
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance-0.00
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-1.20
p(b)0.57
t(a)-0.49
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations44
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.98
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06
Number of observations965
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low141
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high151
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low29
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.35
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.05
Median0.06
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)272
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.39
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.57
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.89
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.14

Trading record

Placed 811 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QCL Q7short1Jun 28, 2017Jun 30, 2017($848)
ES U7long1Jun 27, 2017Jun 28, 2017$317
LE Q7long1Jun 15, 2017Jun 19, 2017($638)
CD M7short1May 15, 2017May 19, 2017($558)
QSI N7short1May 17, 2017May 18, 2017$1,417
S N7short1May 1, 2017May 2, 2017$155
QGC M7long1Apr 25, 2017Apr 27, 2017($48)
JY M7long1Apr 26, 2017Apr 27, 2017$42
TY M7long2Apr 24, 2017Apr 26, 2017($46)
JY M7long1Apr 20, 2017Apr 25, 2017($1,821)
TY M7long1Apr 20, 2017Apr 21, 2017$164
QSI N7long1Apr 21, 2017Apr 21, 2017$67
QGC M7long1Apr 20, 2017Apr 21, 2017$472
S N7short2Apr 16, 2017Apr 18, 2017$1,634
SM N7short2Apr 16, 2017Apr 17, 2017$1,004
NQ M7long2Apr 16, 2017Apr 17, 2017$944
NQ M7long1Apr 13, 2017Apr 13, 2017$577
QCL K7short2Mar 28, 2017Mar 30, 2017($3,166)
BO K7short2Mar 22, 2017Mar 23, 2017$422
QSI K7long1Mar 9, 2017Mar 14, 2017($1,908)
BO K7short1Mar 1, 2017Mar 2, 2017$208
CD H7long1Feb 6, 2017Feb 9, 2017($213)
JY H7short2Jan 17, 2017Jan 18, 2017$2,259
EU Z6short1Dec 5, 2016Dec 6, 2016$667
QNG F7short2Nov 21, 2016Nov 23, 2016($816)
QCL F7short1Nov 21, 2016Nov 22, 2016$1,332
QNG F7short1Nov 16, 2016Nov 17, 2016$502
QM F7short1Nov 16, 2016Nov 17, 2016($333)
CD Z6short1Nov 16, 2016Nov 16, 2016$72
EU Z6short1Nov 2, 2016Nov 3, 2016($127)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.