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US Stock Trader

Stocks · Started Aug 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
11.0%
Max Drawdown
45.3%
Trades
544
Win Trades
47.4%
Profit Factor
2
Win Months
24.7%

About this strategy

US Stock Trader applies statically sound methods to strategy development. The strategy includes adaptive position sizing algorithms, entries and exits.

US Stock Trader applies a margin requirement of 50%.

US Stock Trader compounds profits.

US Stock Trader is designed to be auto-traded.

Subscriptions to US Stock Trader are strictly limited to avoid system degradation through slippage.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2011-9.916.91.1-11.0-3.8-8.9
20129.027.78.14.00.3-2.314.010.36.1-7.7-5.1-0.678.0
201316.13.7-0.81.15.5-0.74.89.20.94.010.01.870.3
2014-6.06.5-1.14.97.80.6-2.15.8-4.23.14.5-2.118.1
20158.97.9-5.12.03.6-1.7-1.6-2.0-0.01.3-0.5-7.83.8
2016-6.7-0.310.6-12.34.6-2.77.51.85.50.4-1.94.99.5
20173.411.84.3-0.06.0-5.12.94.50.00.00.00.030.4
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/23/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age183 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades544
# Profitable258
% Profitable47.4%
Avg trade duration2.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown45.3%
drawdown periodSept 22, 2015 - May 06, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)11.0%
Avg win$688
Avg loss$315

Ratios

W:L ratio2.01
Sharpe Ratio0.71
Sortino Ratio1.13
Calmar Ratio1.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life559.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-173.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)11.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss24.0%
Chance of 20% account loss9.0%
Chance of 30% account loss6.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)319
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$315
Avg Win$688
# Winners258
Sum Trade PL (losers)$90,231
Sum Trade PL (winners)$177,481
Num Months Winners45
# Losers286
% Winners47.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct3693

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table182

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3928.70
Avg Position Time (hrs)65.48
Avg Trade Length2.70
Last Trade Ago3316

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.38

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.21
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-2.97
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats91.97
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats73.75
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-5.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df91
t3.43
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio3.18
Upside Potential Ratio4.62
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms45
N of observations92
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error90
t(b)1.55
p(b)0.06
t(a)2.77
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)1.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.20
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df91
t3.32
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio2.86
Upside Potential Ratio4.28
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms45
N of observations92
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error90
t(b)1.79
p(b)0.04
t(a)2.63
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)1.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.20
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.53
df2021
t4.25
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio2.50
Upside Potential Ratio8.60
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms757
N negative terms1265
N of observations2022
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error2020
t(b)3.91
p(b)0.00
t(a)4.00
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)4.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.19
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.47
df2021
t4.08
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio2.36
Upside Potential Ratio8.43
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms757
N negative terms1265
N of observations2022
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error2020
t(b)3.90
p(b)0.00
t(a)3.86
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)4.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.24
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.40
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6740313905299456
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)7.03084998819066e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations92
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations2022
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low161
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high211
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations71
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-408708960
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)227
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.23
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.49
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.55
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 640 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AAPL long554Dec 10, 2015Aug 4, 2017$21,793
AAPL short418Dec 9, 2015Dec 9, 2015$374
AAPL short374Dec 3, 2015Dec 3, 2015$156
AAPL short635Dec 2, 2015Dec 2, 2015$292
AAPL short562Dec 1, 2015Dec 1, 2015($1)
AAPL short570Nov 27, 2015Nov 27, 2015($34)
AAPL short397Nov 23, 2015Nov 23, 2015$82
AAPL long389Nov 19, 2015Nov 23, 2015($267)
AAPL short479Nov 17, 2015Nov 17, 2015($2)
AAPL long297Nov 16, 2015Nov 17, 2015$66
AAPL short570Nov 6, 2015Nov 6, 2015($50)
AAPL short425Nov 5, 2015Nov 5, 2015($49)
AAPL short434Oct 30, 2015Oct 30, 2015$159
AAPL long374Oct 28, 2015Oct 30, 2015$1,050
AAPL short401Oct 27, 2015Oct 27, 2015$206
AAPL long363Oct 21, 2015Oct 27, 2015($69)
AAPL short444Oct 16, 2015Oct 16, 2015($118)
AAPL long471Oct 15, 2015Oct 16, 2015($376)
AAPL short403Oct 15, 2015Oct 15, 2015($381)
AAPL long369Oct 8, 2015Oct 15, 2015$376
AAPL short272Oct 7, 2015Oct 7, 2015($179)
AAPL long260Oct 1, 2015Oct 7, 2015$387
AAPL short244Sep 30, 2015Sep 30, 2015($60)
AAPL short309Sep 29, 2015Sep 29, 2015$846
AAPL short369Sep 25, 2015Sep 25, 2015($189)
AAPL long524Sep 23, 2015Sep 25, 2015$279
AAPL short418Sep 22, 2015Sep 22, 2015($205)
AAPL long376Sep 21, 2015Sep 22, 2015($623)
AAPL short457Sep 21, 2015Sep 21, 2015($282)
AAPL long223Sep 17, 2015Sep 21, 2015($343)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.