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eminiglobex

Futures · Started Nov 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.4%
Max Drawdown
8.5%
Trades
167
Win Trades
89.2%
Profit Factor
3.50
Win Months
25.9%

About this strategy

https://sites.google.com/site/eminiglobex/

http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/

Twitter - @eminiglobex

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20109.9-2.47.3
20116.11.9-1.8-3.00.83.1-5.00.10.10.05.41.89.3
20122.12.22.01.51.10.30.50.21.20.60.50.413.3
20130.50.50.20.20.00.8-0.20.20.2-0.2-0.20.12.0
20140.3-0.2-0.20.4-0.2-0.20.1-0.20.2-0.2-0.20.3-0.1
20150.3-0.20.3-0.2-0.20.4-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.20.4-0.3
2016-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.40.6-0.20.2-0.2-1.6
20171.91.11.32.50.20.70.00.60.00.00.70.09.4
20180.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.8
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/23/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age192 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades167
# Profitable149
% Profitable89.2%
Avg trade duration11.3 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown8.5%
drawdown periodMarch 14, 2011 - Oct 17, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)2.4%
Avg win$152
Avg loss$364

Ratios

W:L ratio3.47
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Sortino Ratio0.18
Calmar Ratio0.72

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life549.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-507.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$364
Avg Win$152
# Winners149
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,544
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,706
Num Months Winners51
# Losers18
% Winners89.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table190

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)675.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)11.25
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago3139

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.66
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.24
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.96
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.42

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df80
t3.12
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio4.29
Upside Potential Ratio5.70
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms38
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error79
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.52
t(a)2.92
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)-44.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.06
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.19
df80
t3.12
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio4.16
Upside Potential Ratio5.56
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms38
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error79
t(b)0.04
p(b)0.49
t(a)2.90
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)54.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df1783
t1.86
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio1.15
Upside Potential Ratio3.93
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms199
N negative terms1585
N of observations1784
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1782
t(b)9.13
p(b)0.39
t(a)1.30
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.06
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.68
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df1783
t1.76
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio1.06
Upside Potential Ratio3.81
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms199
N negative terms1585
N of observations1784
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1782
t(b)8.71
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6620462842904576
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.2413680541638e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations81
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.86
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations1784
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low103
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high202
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations37
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-384419360
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)217
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.42
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 117 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H8long1Jan 30, 2018Jan 30, 2018$242
ES Z7long1Nov 15, 2017Nov 15, 2017$192
ES U7long1Aug 10, 2017Aug 11, 2017$183
ES U7long1Jun 21, 2017Jun 22, 2017$205
ES M7long1May 17, 2017May 19, 2017$24
ES M7long1May 12, 2017May 12, 2017$30
ES M7long1Apr 17, 2017Apr 17, 2017$142
ES M7long1Apr 12, 2017Apr 13, 2017$180
ES M7long1Apr 5, 2017Apr 6, 2017$205
ES M7long1Apr 3, 2017Apr 4, 2017$192
ES H7long1Mar 8, 2017Mar 9, 2017$180
ES H7long1Mar 7, 2017Mar 8, 2017$180
ES H7long1Feb 28, 2017Feb 28, 2017$167
ES H7long1Jan 30, 2017Feb 1, 2017$155
ES H7long1Jan 19, 2017Jan 19, 2017$142
ES H7long1Jan 17, 2017Jan 18, 2017$167
ES H7long1Jan 12, 2017Jan 13, 2017$117
ES H7long1Jan 9, 2017Jan 10, 2017$217
ES Z6long1Nov 2, 2016Nov 3, 2016$167
ES Z6long1Sep 11, 2016Sep 12, 2016$155
ES H6long1Dec 20, 2015Dec 21, 2015$180
ES M5long1Jun 7, 2015Jun 10, 2015$162
ES H5long1Mar 8, 2015Mar 9, 2015$142
ES H5long1Jan 5, 2015Jan 5, 2015$144
ES H5long1Dec 16, 2014Dec 16, 2014$155
ES U4long1Sep 9, 2014Sep 10, 2014$117
ES U4long1Jul 17, 2014Jul 18, 2014$102
ES M4long1Apr 7, 2014Apr 7, 2014$176
ES H4long1Jan 27, 2014Jan 27, 2014$139
ES Z3long1Dec 11, 2013Dec 12, 2013$97

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.