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FuguSTMGold

Forex · Started May 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
19.4%
Max Drawdown
4.5%
Trades
698
Win Trades
97.1%
Profit Factor
49.20
Win Months
23.5%

About this strategy

Trading Style
The strategy revolves around identifying key market reversals, entering the market just before a reversal occurs. To manage risk, we use a small series of grid trades, occasionally increasing the lot size based on market conditions.

Rather than relying on traditional stop losses, we employ a hard stop loss, which is activated only under specific conditions. The maximum loss is capped at 25% of the account balance—this represents the worst-case scenario. This approach is designed as a mid-risk strategy, with a targeted average of 8-10% monthly profit.

However, please note that while this system has been effective for years, there are no guarantees. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments carry inherent risks. The objective is consistent growth, not promises.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20258.39.53.4-0.03.9-0.0-0.0-0.127.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/5/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age16 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades698
# Profitable678
% Profitable97.1%
Avg trade duration1.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown4.5%
drawdown periodJune 08, 2025 - June 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)19.4%
Avg win$41
Avg loss$29

Ratios

W:L ratio49.25
Sharpe Ratio2.67
Sortino Ratio6.72
Calmar Ratio18.98

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life35.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-9.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)19.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)446
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$29
Avg Win$41
# Winners678
Sum Trade PL (losers)$571
Sum Trade PL (winners)$28,120
Num Months Winners5
# Losers20
% Winners97.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table17

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)57.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.96
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago192

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.52
Daily leverage (max)18.99

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta0.03
Treynor Index1.59

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.56
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.24
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades3.38
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.05
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.31
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.07
df8
t1.99
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.55
Sortino ratio59.09
Upside Potential Ratio61.57
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms5
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error7
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.39
t(a)1.43
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)4.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.30
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.08
df8
t2.00
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.56
Sortino ratio56.86
Upside Potential Ratio59.34
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms5
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error7
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.37
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)3.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.29
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)4.59
df200
t4.04
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.87
Sortino ratio12.02
Upside Potential Ratio14.65
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms51
N negative terms150
N of observations201
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error199
t(b)0.86
p(b)0.46
t(a)3.85
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)11.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
Mean0.29
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)4.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)4.58
df200
t4.03
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.87
Sortino ratio11.83
Upside Potential Ratio14.45
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms51
N negative terms150
N of observations201
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.28
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error199
t(b)0.86
p(b)0.46
t(a)3.85
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)11.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.28
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.05
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.64
df130
t1.88
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.43
Sortino ratio20.94
Upside Potential Ratio32.33
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms117
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.32
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)15.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.05
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.63
df130
t1.87
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.42
Sortino ratio20.86
Upside Potential Ratio32.25
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms117
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.48
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)14.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations201
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high48
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-422636576
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.38
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)18.98
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs39.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal54.22
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)72.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs72.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal36.78

Trading record

Placed 59 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/CAD short1000Feb 26, 2026Feb 26, 2026$65
AUD/CAD short1000Sep 22, 2025Sep 22, 2025$46
AUD/CAD long400Sep 22, 2025Sep 22, 2025$33
AUD/CAD short600Sep 22, 2025Sep 22, 2025$30
AUD/CAD short200Sep 22, 2025Sep 22, 2025$51
AUD/CAD long400Sep 22, 2025Sep 22, 2025$139
AUD/CAD long453Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$23
AUD/CAD long453Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$46
AUD/CAD short1359Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$220
AUD/CAD long912Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$120
AUD/CAD short1812Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$157
AUD/CAD long450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$39
AUD/CAD short450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$29
AUD/CAD long450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$85
AUD/CAD short450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$23
AUD/CAD long450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$23
AUD/CAD short450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$55
AUD/CAD short450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$52
AUD/CAD short450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$59
AUD/CAD long450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$23
AUD/CAD short450Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$39
AUD/CAD long900Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$140
AUD/CAD short300Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$28
AUD/CAD long300Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$17
AUD/CAD long600Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$33
AUD/CAD short300Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$52
AUD/CAD long300Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$30
AUD/CAD long300Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$33
AUD/CAD long600Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$128
AUD/CAD short300Sep 16, 2025Sep 16, 2025$17

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.