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SMA Trading ES500

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
77.5%
Max Drawdown
27.2%
Trades
386
Win Trades
49.5%
Profit Factor
1.60
Win Months
31.6%

About this strategy

Trade Stock Index: SP500, momentum trade by the Dow Jones's Theory, including LONG and SHORT trades. Each trade always includes a stop loss.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20258.877.611.56.7-9.32.76.60.00.00.0128.5
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/31/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age17 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades386
# Profitable191
% Profitable49.5%
Avg trade duration5.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.2%
drawdown periodSept 03, 2025 - Sept 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)77.5%
Avg win$970
Avg loss$581

Ratios

W:L ratio1.64
Sharpe Ratio1.83
Sortino Ratio3.28
Calmar Ratio12.53

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life36.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)90.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)77.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.8%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)85.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss28.5%
Chance of 20% account loss10.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.8%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$581
Avg Win$970
# Winners191
Sum Trade PL (losers)$113,244
Sum Trade PL (winners)$185,183
Num Months Winners6
# Losers195
% Winners49.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table19

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)344.73
Avg Position Time (hrs)5.75
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago357

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.58
Daily leverage (max)20.38

Regression

Alpha0.16
Beta-0.12
Treynor Index-1.31

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.59
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.81
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.82
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.51
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.44
SD1.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.31
df8
t1.26
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.66
Sortino ratio17.81
Upside Potential Ratio19.46
Upside part of mean1.58
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD1.02
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms5
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion1.44
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion1.00
Covariance-0.04
r-0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)-5.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.07
Mean Square Error0.89
DF error7
t(b)-1.39
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.92
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-13.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.85
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.29
Jensen alpha (a)3.07
Mean1.09
SD0.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df8
t1.31
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio13.13
Upside Potential Ratio14.78
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.75
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms4
N negative terms5
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion1.09
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.72
Covariance-0.03
r-0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.24
Mean Square Error0.48
DF error7
t(b)-1.33
p(b)0.89
t(a)1.90
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.02
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.30
Jensen alpha (a)2.24
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean1.10
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.33
df204
t2.96
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.57
Sortino ratio6.14
Upside Potential Ratio11.28
Upside part of mean2.02
Downside part of mean-0.92
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms138
N of observations205
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion1.10
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.16
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error203
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.90
t(a)3.09
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.79
Jensen alpha (a)1.16
Mean1.05
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.19
df204
t2.83
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.43
Sortino ratio5.68
Upside Potential Ratio10.78
Upside part of mean1.98
Downside part of mean-0.94
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms67
N negative terms138
N of observations205
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion1.05
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance-0.01
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.10
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error203
t(b)-1.33
p(b)0.91
t(a)2.97
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.83
Treynor index (mean / b)-7.16
Jensen alpha (a)1.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.04
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df130
t0.10
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.91
Sortino ratio0.21
Upside Potential Ratio4.79
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms117
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)0.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean-0.00
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.01
df130
t-0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.76
Sortino ratio-0.01
Upside Potential Ratio4.53
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.90
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms117
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.00
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error129
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.94
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.87
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.50
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.87
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations205
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.91
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.09
Median0.11
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-367610816
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)6
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.75
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)23.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.21
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.68
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.93
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.53
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.97
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal52.16
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.70

Trading record

Placed 628 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QPL V5long14Sep 4, 2025Sep 12, 2025$1,813
QPL V5long6Sep 2, 2025Sep 3, 2025$14,352
US Z5long2Aug 27, 2025Sep 2, 2025($1,829)
BP Z5long6Aug 27, 2025Sep 2, 2025($4,061)
EU Z5long4Aug 27, 2025Sep 2, 2025($1,088)
QGC Z5long1Aug 27, 2025Aug 27, 2025$72
MNQ U5long10Aug 26, 2025Aug 26, 2025($4)
MNQ U5long20Aug 26, 2025Aug 26, 2025$3,603
EU U5long4Aug 24, 2025Aug 26, 2025($2,151)
QGC Z5long2Aug 25, 2025Aug 25, 2025($696)
QMGC Z5long6Aug 24, 2025Aug 25, 2025$92
QGC Q5long2Jul 30, 2025Jul 30, 2025($3,336)
AD U5long11Jul 30, 2025Jul 30, 2025($1,353)
QGC Q5short2Jul 29, 2025Jul 30, 2025($576)
MNQ U5short12Jul 29, 2025Jul 29, 2025($701)
QGC Q5long2Jul 29, 2025Jul 29, 2025($236)
QGC Q5long2Jul 29, 2025Jul 29, 2025($1,176)
QGC Q5short2Jul 29, 2025Jul 29, 2025($56)
QGC Q5short2Jul 28, 2025Jul 29, 2025$4
MNQ U5long10Jul 28, 2025Jul 28, 2025($154)
MNQ U5short8Jul 28, 2025Jul 28, 2025$92
EU U5short8Jul 28, 2025Jul 28, 2025$2,886
AD U5long8Jul 6, 2025Jul 28, 2025$341
AD U5long8Jul 4, 2025Jul 6, 2025($3,064)
AD U5long8Jul 1, 2025Jul 4, 2025($2,499)
QGC Q5long1Jul 1, 2025Jul 2, 2025($298)
QGC Q5long1Jul 1, 2025Jul 1, 2025$22
MNQ U5long7Jul 1, 2025Jul 1, 2025$6
AD U5long7Jul 1, 2025Jul 1, 2025($511)
MNQ U5long7Jul 1, 2025Jul 1, 2025$295

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.