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MarketMindsBeatSPX

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2025

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.7%
Max Drawdown
21.3%
Trades
174
Win Trades
58.6%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
65.0%
Subscribe $100/mo

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-2.5-5.0-2.67.15.40.93.77.71.7-7.2-2.55.5
20262.71.1-4.93.83.3-6.90.44.11.94.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/20/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$5,000
Age19 months
C2 Rank213
What it tradesStocks
# Trades174
# Profitable102
% Profitable58.6%
Avg trade duration94.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.3%
drawdown periodFeb 20, 2025 - April 07, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)6.7%
Avg win$404
Avg loss$410

Ratios

W:L ratio1.45
Sharpe Ratio0.32
Sortino Ratio0.43
Calmar Ratio0.45

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.65
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life25.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-14.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)8.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity7.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss45.5%
Chance of 20% account loss4.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)759
C2 Score213
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?187373
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$410
Avg Win$404
# Winners102
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,533
Sum Trade PL (winners)$41,176
Num Months Winners13
# Losers72
% Winners58.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1742

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table20

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)135556.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)2259.27
Avg Trade Length94.10
Last Trade Ago12

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.89
Daily leverage (max)1.30

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.60
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.76
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)5.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.57
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.53
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df17
t0.39
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.92
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.91
Sortino ratio0.46
Upside Potential Ratio2.31
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms6
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error16
t(b)5.01
p(b)0.11
t(a)-0.51
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.04
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.23
df17
t0.29
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.83
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms6
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error16
t(b)5.07
p(b)0.11
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.07
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df398
t0.53
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio7.93
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms203
N negative terms196
N of observations399
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.02
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error397
t(b)16.89
p(b)0
t(a)-0.14
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df398
t0.43
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio7.74
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms203
N negative terms196
N of observations399
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.02
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error397
t(b)17.05
p(b)0
t(a)-0.19
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.07
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df130
t0.43
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.37
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio9.82
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.54
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.36
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.06
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.54
df130
t0.38
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.31
Sortino ratio0.81
Upside Potential Ratio9.71
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms70
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.57
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.37
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.92
Quartile 10.96
Median1.02
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations399
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.10
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-426236160
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)46
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.35
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.69
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.57

Trading record

Placed 401 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CYPH long500Aug 27, 2026Sep 9, 2026$339
CCJ long20May 20, 2026Aug 25, 2026$30
ACN long10May 29, 2026Aug 21, 2026($0)
ETH long50Jun 1, 2026Aug 21, 2026$191
IBIT long17May 28, 2026Aug 21, 2026$35
DAL long25Jul 9, 2026Aug 13, 2026$64
CEG long10May 20, 2026Aug 12, 2026($4)
PALL long100May 20, 2026Aug 7, 2026($18)
TT long5Apr 20, 2026Aug 7, 2026$24
CF long18Jun 10, 2026Jul 14, 2026$208
IAUM long49Jun 9, 2026Jul 13, 2026($166)
AGQ long20May 1, 2026Jul 13, 2026($1,099)
ORCL long10May 8, 2026Jul 13, 2026($640)
NUGT long15Apr 30, 2026Jul 13, 2026($876)
FDXF long4Jun 2, 2026Jul 1, 2026$8
SCO long100May 28, 2026Jun 15, 2026$287
DELL short5Jun 9, 2026Jun 9, 2026($16)
DELL long10Apr 20, 2026Jun 9, 2026$1,938
AXP long10Apr 6, 2026May 29, 2026$125
UNP long10Apr 30, 2026May 29, 2026($43)
UGL long20Apr 30, 2026May 6, 2026$28
KWEB long30Apr 8, 2026May 5, 2026($13)
XOP long10Mar 25, 2026Apr 30, 2026($30)
XLE long10Mar 25, 2026Apr 30, 2026($15)
MRK short20Apr 14, 2026Apr 14, 2026($4)
FXE short10Apr 14, 2026Apr 14, 2026($0)
AMGN short7Apr 14, 2026Apr 14, 2026($2)
OIH long5Mar 25, 2026Apr 14, 2026$2
FXE long10Apr 8, 2026Apr 14, 2026$11
FXB long8Apr 8, 2026Apr 14, 2026$12

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.