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STonly

Futures · Futures · Started Dec 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
303.7%
Max Drawdown
81.3%
Trades
242
Win Trades
86.4%
Profit Factor
16.10
Win Months
35.0%

About this strategy

Short-Term E-Mini Futures Trading Strategy Desgined for Small / Tiny Account (with Higher Risk Tolerance).
Objective: Achieve aggressive returns with controlled risk, targeting intraday opportunities in volatile markets.
Max Drawdown Cap: 20~30% of equity.
This strategy is speculative and requires rigorous discipline. Will adjust profit targets and risk thresholds based on actual performance.

Momentum Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202411.711.7
20250.89.917.72.312.6-1.4-8.5-24.7-33.5-14.2-25.62275.7928.8
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/4/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$70,000
Age21 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades242
# Profitable209
% Profitable86.4%
Avg trade duration2.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown81.3%
drawdown periodJune 24, 2025 - Dec 11, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)303.7%
Avg win$335
Avg loss$132

Ratios

W:L ratio16.06
Sharpe Ratio0.67
Sortino Ratio15.06
Calmar Ratio18.82

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life25.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)1023.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)303.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)3.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)300.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss91.0%
Chance of 30% account loss63.0%
Chance of 40% account loss35.5%
Chance of 50% account loss11.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$132
Avg Win$335
# Winners209
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,364
Sum Trade PL (winners)$70,068
Num Months Winners7
# Losers33
% Winners86.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct20

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table21

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3587.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)59.78
Avg Trade Length2.50
Last Trade Ago333

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)6.73
Daily leverage (max)20.61

Regression

Alpha1.89
Beta-1.72
Treynor Index-1.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.49
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-18.98
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats96.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats85.55
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.02
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.60
Hold-and-Hope Ratio2.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean17.15
SD16.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df10
t0.98
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.04
Sortino ratio34.78
Upside Potential Ratio36.60
Upside part of mean18.04
Downside part of mean-0.90
Upside SD16.65
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms4
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion17.15
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion16.68
Covariance1.44
r0.53
b (slope, estimate of beta)54.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)6.13
Mean Square Error222.39
DF error9
t(b)1.87
p(b)0.05
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-11.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta119.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-31.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha43.80
Treynor index (mean / b)0.32
Jensen alpha (a)6.13
Mean2.66
SD3.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df10
t0.83
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.88
Sortino ratio4.51
Upside Potential Ratio6.29
Upside part of mean3.70
Downside part of mean-1.05
Upside SD2.97
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms4
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion2.66
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion3.07
Covariance0.21
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)8.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.11
Mean Square Error8.51
DF error9
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.09
t(a)0.34
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta21.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha8.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)1.11
VaR(95%)0.71
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.79
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.28
Mean9.98
SD9.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df240
t1.06
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.15
Sortino ratio22.08
Upside Potential Ratio28.26
Upside part of mean12.78
Downside part of mean-2.80
Upside SD9.01
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms124
N negative terms117
N of observations241
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion9.98
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion9.02
Covariance-0.09
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)10.31
Mean Square Error81.54
DF error239
t(b)-0.63
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.09
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-8.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha28.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.78
Jensen alpha (a)10.31
Mean2.65
SD2.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df240
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.09
Sortino ratio5.52
Upside Potential Ratio11.59
Upside part of mean5.55
Downside part of mean-2.91
Upside SD2.47
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms124
N negative terms117
N of observations241
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion2.65
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion2.52
Covariance-0.04
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.76
Mean Square Error6.36
DF error239
t(b)-0.89
p(b)0.81
t(a)1.05
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.95
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.48
Jensen alpha (a)2.76
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean17.31
SD12.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.41
df130
t1.00
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.18
Sortino ratio29.86
Upside Potential Ratio37.23
Upside part of mean21.58
Downside part of mean-4.27
Upside SD12.22
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion17.31
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion12.23
Covariance-0.19
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-3.27
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)18.93
Mean Square Error150.14
DF error129
t(b)-0.73
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.08
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-15.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha53.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.30
Jensen alpha (a)18.93
Mean3.88
SD3.41
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df130
t0.80
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.91
Sortino ratio6.29
Upside Potential Ratio13.52
Upside part of mean8.33
Downside part of mean-4.45
Upside SD3.35
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion3.88
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion3.41
Covariance-0.07
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.50
Mean Square Error11.61
DF error129
t(b)-1.01
p(b)0.56
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.92
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha14.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.92
Jensen alpha (a)4.50
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.34
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.66
Quartile 10.91
Median1.07
Quartile 31.11
Maximum16.94
Mean of quarter 10.76
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 46.42
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high16.94
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-128.31
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.54
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.55
Number of observations241
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum9.59
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high21
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum9.59
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.33
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.86
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.61
Quartile 10.61
Median0.61
Quartile 30.61
Maximum0.61
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.20
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.75
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.69
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.72
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-423685568
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)170
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)11.69
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)13.65
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)22.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.29
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)11.65
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)13.51
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)18.82
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs66.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal50.77
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)12.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)48.65
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)67.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs67.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal142.81

Trading record

Placed 107 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES U5short7Aug 3, 2025Sep 2, 2025($806)
MES U5short4Jun 26, 2025Aug 1, 2025($880)
MES U5short2Jun 24, 2025Jun 25, 2025($60)
MES U5short2Jun 24, 2025Jun 24, 2025$112
MES U5short2Jun 20, 2025Jun 20, 2025$28
MES U5short2Jun 16, 2025Jun 16, 2025$96
MES U5short2Jun 12, 2025Jun 12, 2025($23)
MES U5short2Jun 11, 2025Jun 11, 2025$86
MES U5short2Jun 9, 2025Jun 9, 2025$86
MES U5short2Jun 3, 2025Jun 3, 2025$79
MES M5short2Jun 2, 2025Jun 2, 2025$103
MES M5short2Jun 2, 2025Jun 2, 2025$46
MES M5long1May 29, 2025May 29, 2025$27
MES M5long3May 29, 2025May 29, 2025($65)
MES U5short2May 27, 2025May 28, 2025$56
MES M5short2May 27, 2025May 27, 2025$82
MES M5short2May 26, 2025May 26, 2025$51
MES M5short2May 21, 2025May 21, 2025$49
MES M5short1May 20, 2025May 20, 2025$34
MES M5short3May 19, 2025May 20, 2025$32
MES M5short3May 15, 2025May 18, 2025$32
MES M5short0.66May 14, 2025May 14, 2025$28
MES M5short0.99May 14, 2025May 14, 2025$10
MES M5short0.99May 13, 2025May 13, 2025$35
MES M5short2.31May 13, 2025May 13, 2025($174)
MES M5short1.98May 13, 2025May 13, 2025$8
MES M5short1.32May 12, 2025May 13, 2025$168
MES M5short1.32May 12, 2025May 12, 2025$31
MES M5short1.65May 12, 2025May 12, 2025$31
MES M5short1.32May 12, 2025May 12, 2025$44

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.