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ABC Index

Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
90.6%
Max Drawdown
71.8%
Trades
767
Win Trades
55.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
41.7%

About this strategy

It's long term trend trading MNQ by 20 days MA. It's not 100% but half Auto-trading system, . All trades including stop-loss will not hold losing positions overnight.
It has abandoned the super fast trading style after a 23% drawdown. It will focus on Trend trading now.
June 3, 2025

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202437.045.34.30.8109.6
20257.13.79.827.3-14.05.5-13.1-7.849.90.00.00.069.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/16/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$23,100
Age24 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades767
# Profitable423
% Profitable55.1%
Avg trade duration1.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown71.8%
drawdown periodMay 22, 2025 - Sept 11, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)90.6%
Avg win$713
Avg loss$677

Ratios

W:L ratio1.29
Sharpe Ratio1.15
Sortino Ratio2.17
Calmar Ratio3.91

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life35.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)217.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)90.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.9%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)100.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss47.5%
Chance of 20% account loss15.0%
Chance of 30% account loss8.0%
Chance of 40% account loss2.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)500
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$677
Avg Win$713
# Winners423
Sum Trade PL (losers)$233,035
Sum Trade PL (winners)$301,483
Num Months Winners10
# Losers344
% Winners55.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table24

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)82.10
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.37
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago342

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)11.39
Daily leverage (max)147.17

Regression

Alpha0.20
Beta0.31
Treynor Index0.69

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-46.39
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats71.47
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.02
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.60
SD0.96
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.56
df12
t1.74
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.55
Sortino ratio10.02
Upside Potential Ratio11.36
Upside part of mean1.81
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD1.02
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion1.60
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.96
Covariance-0.00
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.65
Mean Square Error1.00
DF error11
t(b)-0.12
p(b)0.55
t(a)1.57
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.96
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.00
Jensen alpha (a)1.65
Mean1.24
SD0.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.63
df12
t1.81
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.62
Sortino ratio7.20
Upside Potential Ratio8.53
Upside part of mean1.47
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.75
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms4
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion1.24
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.71
Covariance-0.01
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.35
Mean Square Error0.55
DF error11
t(b)-0.38
p(b)0.64
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.62
Jensen alpha (a)1.35
VaR(95%)0.21
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean1.37
SD0.64
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.12
df298
t2.27
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.97
Sortino ratio4.00
Upside Potential Ratio8.77
Upside part of mean3.01
Downside part of mean-1.64
Upside SD0.55
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms149
N negative terms150
N of observations299
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion1.37
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.64
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.31
Mean Square Error0.41
DF error297
t(b)1.36
p(b)0.09
t(a)2.17
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.50
Treynor index (mean / b)5.36
Jensen alpha (a)1.31
Mean1.17
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.89
df298
t2.03
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.73
Sortino ratio3.24
Upside Potential Ratio7.93
Upside part of mean2.87
Downside part of mean-1.70
Upside SD0.51
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms149
N negative terms150
N of observations299
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion1.17
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.12
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error297
t(b)1.30
p(b)0.10
t(a)1.94
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.26
Treynor index (mean / b)4.99
Jensen alpha (a)1.12
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.55
SD0.91
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df130
t0.43
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.37
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio7.73
Upside part of mean3.95
Downside part of mean-3.40
Upside SD0.75
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms86
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.91
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.83
DF error129
t(b)0.46
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.35
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
Mean0.16
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df130
t0.13
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.96
Sortino ratio0.30
Upside Potential Ratio6.86
Upside part of mean3.71
Downside part of mean-3.54
Upside SD0.67
Downside SD0.54
N nonnegative terms45
N negative terms86
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.76
DF error129
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.53
Treynor index (mean / b)0.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11
Median1.08
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.96
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.04
Mean of quarter 31.11
Mean of quarter 41.51
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.96
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.45
Number of observations299
Minimum0.84
Quartile 11
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low36
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high47
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.32
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low17
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.55
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.21
Quartile 10.21
Median0.21
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.59
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.59
Quartile 10.59
Median0.59
Quartile 30.59
Maximum0.59
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-482593440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)112
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.72
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2.58
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.91
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs16.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.36
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.04

Trading record

Placed 1656 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QPL V5long2Sep 21, 2025Sep 22, 2025$904
QGC Z5long2Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$544
QGC Z5long2Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$264
QGC Z5long2Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$164
QGC Z5long6Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$532
QGC Z5short4Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$1,228
QGC Z5long4Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$688
QGC Z5short1Sep 21, 2025Sep 21, 2025$12
QGC Z5long2Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$384
QGC Z5long1Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$1,822
QSI Z5long5Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$1,085
QGC Z5short10Sep 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$2,160
QGC Z5long1Sep 18, 2025Sep 19, 2025($268)
QGC Z5long2Sep 18, 2025Sep 18, 2025$1,334
QGC Z5long6Sep 18, 2025Sep 18, 2025$1,072
QGC Z5long10Sep 18, 2025Sep 18, 2025$3,720
QGC Z5short4Sep 18, 2025Sep 18, 2025$1,148
QGC Z5long10Sep 18, 2025Sep 18, 2025$4,380
QGC Z5long3Sep 17, 2025Sep 18, 2025($8,774)
QGC Z5long10Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$170
QGC Z5long4Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$588
QGC Z5long2Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$1,044
QGC Z5long16Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$8,952
QGC Z5short10Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$1,480
QGC Z5long10Sep 17, 2025Sep 17, 2025$18,000
EU Z5long10Sep 8, 2025Sep 17, 2025$5,464
MNQ U5long10Sep 8, 2025Sep 8, 2025($204)
MNQ U5short14Sep 8, 2025Sep 8, 2025($978)
MNQ U5long16Sep 8, 2025Sep 8, 2025($223)
MNQ U5short16Sep 8, 2025Sep 8, 2025($1,323)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.