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Silver Thorn

Stocks · Started Aug 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.1%
Max Drawdown
31.6%
Trades
325
Win Trades
52.9%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
57.7%
Subscribe $49/mo

About this strategy

Silver Thorn is best suited for investors who embrace intelligent diversification and seek a systematic edge that consistently outpaces traditional benchmarks. It is not just a strategy, but an evolving organism built to thrive in changing markets.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20248.4-2.76.422.0-2.533.6
20251.8-4.8-1.9-6.49.419.63.54.04.7-4.00.7-4.521.1
20262.7-3.0-18.84.51.2-2.0-3.27.50.4-12.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/7/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age25 months
C2 Rank287
What it tradesStocks
# Trades325
# Profitable172
% Profitable52.9%
Avg trade duration22.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.6%
drawdown periodOct 16, 2025 - March 30, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)18.1%
Avg win$639
Avg loss$566

Ratios

W:L ratio1.28
Sharpe Ratio0.61
Sortino Ratio0.95
Calmar Ratio0.74

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.40
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life47.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-5.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)20.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss54.0%
Chance of 20% account loss19.5%
Chance of 30% account loss5.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated77.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)814
C2 Score287
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$567
Avg Win$642
# Winners172
Sum Trade PL (losers)$86,748
Sum Trade PL (winners)$110,368
Num Months Winners15
# Losers153
% Winners52.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct465

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table26

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)32707.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)545.13
Avg Trade Length22.70
Last Trade Ago1

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.85
Daily leverage (max)2.95

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.58
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.94
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2261852416
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.32
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.45
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df23
t1.14
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.18
Sortino ratio1.49
Upside Potential Ratio3.42
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms10
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error22
t(b)3.32
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.09
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.17
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df23
t0.98
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio1.21
Upside Potential Ratio3.13
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms10
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error22
t(b)3.39
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.20
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df526
t1.16
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.20
Sortino ratio1.28
Upside Potential Ratio7.88
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-1.02
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms276
N negative terms251
N of observations527
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.02
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error525
t(b)9.90
p(b)0
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.17
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.70
df526
t0.99
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio7.60
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-1.03
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms276
N negative terms251
N of observations527
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.02
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error525
t(b)10.05
p(b)0
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.18
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.65
df130
t-0.47
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio-0.94
Upside Potential Ratio6.04
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-1.33
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.33
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)5.84
p(b)0.22
t(a)-0.95
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.33
Mean-0.22
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df130
t-0.56
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio-1.11
Upside Potential Ratio5.81
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-1.35
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms65
N negative terms66
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error129
t(b)5.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)-1.03
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.35
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.97
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations527
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low27
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.07
Median0.12
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.24
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.81
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-367940352
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)165
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.93
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.33
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.94

Trading record

Placed 52 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
FER long44Aug 20, 2026Aug 31, 2026($208)
QQQ long14Jul 29, 2026Aug 31, 2026$383
KLAC long110Aug 5, 2026Aug 19, 2026($470)
MUFG long219Aug 5, 2026Aug 19, 2026($94)
MFG long1076Aug 3, 2026Aug 19, 2026($35)
SHV long39Aug 7, 2026Aug 18, 2026$2
GSAT long714Jul 27, 2026Aug 7, 2026$1,735
SHV long40Jul 29, 2026Aug 6, 2026($10)
MUFG long563Jun 15, 2026Aug 3, 2026$342
YCS long23Jul 29, 2026Jul 30, 2026($69)
MFG long2550Jun 15, 2026Jul 30, 2026$4,394
QQQ long7Jul 27, 2026Jul 28, 2026($41)
SHV long46Jun 25, 2026Jul 28, 2026($2)
EMR long52Jun 26, 2026Jul 24, 2026$57
ETON long802Jul 6, 2026Jul 24, 2026$1,238
WELL long90Jul 15, 2026Jul 23, 2026$964
SAN long1469Jul 9, 2026Jul 21, 2026($136)
IHG long89Jun 15, 2026Jul 15, 2026($216)
LNTH long289Jun 18, 2026Jul 15, 2026($427)
SOXL long50Jul 7, 2026Jul 7, 2026($143)
SPMO long142Jul 2, 2026Jul 6, 2026$359
STX long48Jun 18, 2026Jul 2, 2026($6,922)
FEIM long216Jun 16, 2026Jun 25, 2026($298)
GE long26Jun 15, 2026Jun 25, 2026$492
DUK long15Jun 15, 2026Jun 18, 2026($24)
USMV long104Jun 15, 2026Jun 18, 2026($195)
SHV long132Jun 15, 2026Jun 16, 2026($2)
FER long147Jun 11, 2026Jun 15, 2026$170

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.