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Carnelian Strategy

Equity · Stocks · Started Apr 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
13.5%
Max Drawdown
10.3%
Trades
579
Win Trades
55.8%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
53.3%

Sector: Technology

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024-3.23.24.64.62.35.3-0.95.46.330.9
20252.41.1-1.3-4.81.75.6-0.40.7-2.71.2-2.80.30.4
20264.0-1.50.0-0.61.90.00.00.00.03.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/1/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age30 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades579
# Profitable323
% Profitable55.8%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.3%
drawdown periodAug 13, 2025 - Nov 24, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)13.5%
Avg win$236
Avg loss$231

Ratios

W:L ratio1.29
Sharpe Ratio1
Sortino Ratio1.43
Calmar Ratio2.76

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.41
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life45.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-10.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)13.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)18.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss13.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)500
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$231
Avg Win$236
# Winners323
Sum Trade PL (losers)$59,215
Sum Trade PL (winners)$76,072
Num Months Winners16
# Losers256
% Winners55.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct282

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table30

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2128.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)35.48
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago126

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.15
Daily leverage (max)2.19

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.26
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats56.80
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.33
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.88
df23
t2.75
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.37
Sortino ratio4.74
Upside Potential Ratio6.35
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms8
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error22
t(b)1.19
p(b)0.12
t(a)2.26
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)1.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.18
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.85
df23
t2.71
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.34
Sortino ratio4.53
Upside Potential Ratio6.13
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms8
N of observations24
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error22
t(b)1.26
p(b)0.11
t(a)2.24
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)1.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.18
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df539
t2.57
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.16
Sortino ratio2.65
Upside Potential Ratio9.65
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms288
N negative terms252
N of observations540
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error538
t(b)10.74
p(b)0
t(a)2.13
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.17
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.74
df539
t2.50
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.11
Sortino ratio2.56
Upside Potential Ratio9.54
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms288
N negative terms252
N of observations540
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.01
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error538
t(b)10.79
p(b)0
t(a)2.10
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.02
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df130
t0.21
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio0.41
Upside Potential Ratio6.93
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms84
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)4.61
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean0.02
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df130
t0.19
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.03
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio6.87
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms84
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.00
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)4.62
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.22
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations24
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations540
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-417140320
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)103
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.23
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.65
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.26

Trading record

Placed 182 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QQQ long73Apr 30, 2026May 5, 2026$853
QQQ long80Feb 20, 2026Feb 25, 2026$384
QQQ long80Feb 19, 2026Feb 20, 2026$17
QQQ long81Feb 13, 2026Feb 17, 2026($100)
QQQ long81Feb 11, 2026Feb 13, 2026($1,202)
QQQ long81Feb 10, 2026Feb 11, 2026$295
QQQ long161Feb 9, 2026Feb 10, 2026($155)
QQQ long82Feb 5, 2026Feb 6, 2026$534
QQQ long82Feb 4, 2026Feb 5, 2026($238)
QQQ long80Feb 3, 2026Feb 4, 2026($167)
QQQ long80Feb 2, 2026Feb 3, 2026($63)
QQQ long80Jan 30, 2026Feb 2, 2026$158
QQQ long79Jan 29, 2026Jan 30, 2026($152)
QQQ long79Jan 27, 2026Jan 29, 2026($79)
QQQ long79Jan 26, 2026Jan 27, 2026$159
QQQ long158Jan 23, 2026Jan 26, 2026$119
QQQ long80Jan 21, 2026Jan 22, 2026$351
QQQ long81Jan 20, 2026Jan 21, 2026$16
QQQ long78Jan 15, 2026Jan 16, 2026$324
QQQ long78Jan 14, 2026Jan 15, 2026$520
QQQ long78Jan 13, 2026Jan 14, 2026($384)
QQQ long77Jan 12, 2026Jan 13, 2026$115
QQQ long77Jan 9, 2026Jan 12, 2026($8)
QQQ long78Jan 8, 2026Jan 9, 2026$148
QQQ long78Jan 7, 2026Jan 8, 2026($272)
QQQ long78Jan 6, 2026Jan 7, 2026$87
QQQ long78Jan 2, 2026Jan 6, 2026$514
QQQ long78Dec 31, 2025Jan 2, 2026$350
QQQ long77Dec 30, 2025Dec 31, 2025($101)
QQQ long77Dec 29, 2025Dec 30, 2025($70)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.