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SP 500 Index Futures

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-21.2%
Max Drawdown
79.0%
Trades
513
Win Trades
84.2%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
18.8%

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202417.69.711.2-2.9-19.9-3.97.2-11.1-34.016.5-5.3-57.6-68.5
202564.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.064.1
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/5/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age32 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades513
# Profitable432
% Profitable84.2%
Avg trade duration10.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown79.0%
drawdown periodMarch 14, 2024 - Dec 30, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-21.2%
Avg win$319
Avg loss$1,754

Ratios

W:L ratio0.97
Sharpe Ratio0.01
Sortino Ratio0.01
Calmar Ratio-0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life62.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-111.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-21.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity190.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss93.5%
Chance of 30% account loss85.0%
Chance of 40% account loss64.0%
Chance of 50% account loss33.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)8.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.1%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,754
Avg Win$319
# Winners432
Sum Trade PL (losers)$142,053
Sum Trade PL (winners)$137,808
Num Months Winners6
# Losers81
% Winners84.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table32

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)641.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.68
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago600

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)10.25
Daily leverage (max)26.37

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.07
Treynor Index-0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.03
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.03
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio34.24

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.01
df13
t0.01
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio0.01
Upside Potential Ratio1.94
Upside part of mean0.94
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms7
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.47
DF error12
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.12
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.57
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.21
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df13
t-0.33
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio-0.38
Upside Potential Ratio1.54
Upside part of mean0.86
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.56
N nonnegative terms7
N negative terms7
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.21
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.34
Mean Square Error0.53
DF error12
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.52
Jensen alpha (a)-0.34
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.35
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.33
Mean0.16
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df320
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.25
Upside Potential Ratio5.78
Upside part of mean3.63
Downside part of mean-3.47
Upside SD0.53
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms148
N negative terms173
N of observations321
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.68
DF error319
t(b)-0.25
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.24
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.66
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean-0.20
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.23
df320
t-0.26
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio-0.28
Upside Potential Ratio4.91
Upside part of mean3.50
Downside part of mean-3.71
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.71
N nonnegative terms148
N negative terms173
N of observations321
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.76
DF error319
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)52.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.25
SD1.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df130
t0.17
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.02
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio4.90
Upside part of mean3.66
Downside part of mean-3.41
Upside SD0.68
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms95
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.01
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error1.03
DF error129
t(b)0.48
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.02
Treynor index (mean / b)1.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean-0.30
SD1.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.28
df130
t-0.20
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.49
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio3.92
Upside part of mean3.46
Downside part of mean-3.76
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.88
N nonnegative terms36
N negative terms95
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion-0.30
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1.08
Covariance0.02
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.44
Mean Square Error1.17
DF error129
t(b)0.70
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.28
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.44
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.61
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.44
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.82
Median1.03
Quartile 31.19
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.74
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.21
Inter Quartile Range0.37
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-7.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.44
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.44
Number of observations321
Minimum0.62
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations131
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.45
Quartile 10.45
Median0.45
Quartile 30.45
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.62
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.48
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-25.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.72
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.82
Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.15
Median0.27
Quartile 30.39
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.51
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-497192256
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)291
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.48
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.53
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.25
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.85

Trading record

Placed 1075 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES Z4long12Dec 11, 2024Dec 20, 2024($14,909)
MES Z4short12Dec 11, 2024Dec 11, 2024$46
MES Z4long12Dec 10, 2024Dec 10, 2024$206
MES Z4long12Dec 10, 2024Dec 10, 2024$274
MES Z4long12Dec 10, 2024Dec 10, 2024$186
MES Z4long12Dec 9, 2024Dec 10, 2024$226
MES Z4long12Dec 9, 2024Dec 9, 2024$314
MES Z4short12Dec 9, 2024Dec 9, 2024$474
MES Z4long12Dec 6, 2024Dec 6, 2024$301
MES Z4short12Dec 5, 2024Dec 6, 2024$311
MES Z4short12Dec 5, 2024Dec 5, 2024$236
MES Z4long12Dec 4, 2024Dec 4, 2024$389
MES Z4short12Dec 4, 2024Dec 4, 2024$220
MES Z4long12Dec 4, 2024Dec 4, 2024$206
MES Z4short12Dec 4, 2024Dec 4, 2024$195
MES Z4short12Dec 4, 2024Dec 4, 2024$177
MES Z4long12Dec 3, 2024Dec 4, 2024$411
MES Z4short12Dec 3, 2024Dec 3, 2024($839)
MES Z4short12Dec 3, 2024Dec 3, 2024$286
MES Z4short12Dec 2, 2024Dec 3, 2024$186
MES Z4short12Dec 2, 2024Dec 2, 2024$211
MES Z4short12Dec 2, 2024Dec 2, 2024$211
MES Z4short12Nov 29, 2024Dec 2, 2024$351
MES Z4long23Nov 27, 2024Nov 29, 2024$766
MES Z4long45Nov 25, 2024Nov 27, 2024$1,416
MES Z4long12Nov 25, 2024Nov 25, 2024$266
MES Z4long34Nov 22, 2024Nov 25, 2024$1,657
MES Z4short12Nov 21, 2024Nov 22, 2024($4,589)
MES Z4short12Nov 21, 2024Nov 21, 2024$961
MES Z4long21Nov 21, 2024Nov 21, 2024$758

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.