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ES NQ Day Trades

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.7%
Max Drawdown
53.9%
Trades
1164
Win Trades
44.2%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
50.0%
Subscribe $149/mo

About this strategy

Trades ES NQ Futures intraday. Longs are taken with 1 NQ and/or 1 ES, Shorts are taken with 10 MNQ and/or 10 MES.

Trend-following Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202325.48.4-1.134.5
202411.3-0.54.56.3-4.81.5-5.45.319.6-18.7-17.914.27.8
2025-23.316.99.439.6-2.0-5.6-0.11.9-5.9-13.525.6-9.719.1
2026-8.010.8-3.61.7-0.1-13.68.7-6.51.5-10.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/3/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age36 months
C2 Rank252
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1164
# Profitable514
% Profitable44.2%
Avg trade duration3.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown53.9%
drawdown periodSept 17, 2024 - Feb 13, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)15.7%
Avg win$1,796
Avg loss$1,333

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio0.40
Sortino Ratio0.62
Calmar Ratio0.40

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.16
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life80.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-26.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)21.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity31.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.5%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss76.0%
Chance of 20% account loss51.5%
Chance of 30% account loss29.5%
Chance of 40% account loss12.5%
Chance of 50% account loss2.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated96.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)743
C2 Score252
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)522

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,333
Avg Win$1,796
# Winners514
Sum Trade PL (losers)$866,707
Sum Trade PL (winners)$923,331
Num Months Winners18
# Losers650
% Winners44.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table36

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)202.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.37
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.20
Daily leverage (max)11.97

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.40
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-29.63
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.18
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.29
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.61
df33
t1.04
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio1.21
Upside Potential Ratio2.89
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms20
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.29
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance-0.01
r-0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error32
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.06
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
Mean0.19
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df33
t0.71
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.70
Upside Potential Ratio2.31
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms20
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance-0.01
r-0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error32
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.88
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean0.21
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df757
t1.01
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio7.23
Upside part of mean1.63
Downside part of mean-1.42
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms268
N negative terms490
N of observations758
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error756
t(b)4.64
p(b)0
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.15
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df757
t0.73
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio6.87
Upside part of mean1.60
Downside part of mean-1.45
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms268
N negative terms490
N of observations758
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error756
t(b)3.99
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.45
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)0.45
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.02
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df130
t0.03
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.82
Sortino ratio0.06
Upside Potential Ratio5.91
Upside part of mean1.55
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms88
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error129
t(b)0.91
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.06
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean-0.05
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.13
df130
t-0.09
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio5.58
Upside part of mean1.52
Downside part of mean-1.57
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms43
N negative terms88
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)0.83
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.91
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.71
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.45
Mean of quarter 10.90
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.71
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.43
Number of observations758
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low81
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high75
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.09
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations21
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high0.25
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.20
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-389045440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)149
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.24
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.10
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.23
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.54
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.38

Trading record

Placed 1559 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6short8Sep 9, 2026Sep 9, 2026$680
MES U6short8Sep 9, 2026Sep 9, 2026$630
MNQ U6long8Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($1,516)
MES U6short8Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026$1,050
MNQ U6short8Sep 8, 2026Sep 8, 2026($964)
MNQ U6long8Sep 7, 2026Sep 7, 2026($452)
MES U6short8Sep 7, 2026Sep 7, 2026$270
MES U6short8Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($270)
MNQ U6long8Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($1,316)
MNQ U6long8Sep 4, 2026Sep 4, 2026($1,408)
MNQ U6long8Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026$4,300
MES U6long8Sep 3, 2026Sep 3, 2026$1,530
MNQ U6short8Sep 2, 2026Sep 2, 2026($784)
MES U6long8Sep 2, 2026Sep 2, 2026($30)
MNQ U6short8Sep 2, 2026Sep 2, 2026($1,704)
MNQ U6short8Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026$1,328
MES U6short8Sep 1, 2026Sep 1, 2026$380
MES U6short8Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026($750)
MNQ U6short8Aug 31, 2026Aug 31, 2026($1,480)
MNQ U6short8Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($472)
MES U6short8Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($190)
MES U6long8Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($1,270)
MNQ U6long8Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($2,924)
MNQ U6long8Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($2,140)
MES U6long8Aug 28, 2026Aug 28, 2026($640)
MNQ U6long8Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$2,896
MES U6long8Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026$1,190
MNQ U6long8Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026$360
MES U6long8Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026$10
MES U6short8Aug 26, 2026Aug 26, 2026($400)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.