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neuralsentiment

Futures · Started Sep 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.0%
Max Drawdown
20.5%
Trades
67
Win Trades
65.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
11.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-0.130.22.4-0.332.8
2024-1.10.5-2.3-6.37.8-3.2-14.10.00.00.00.00.0-18.4
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/24/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age36 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades67
# Profitable44
% Profitable65.7%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.5%
drawdown periodFeb 16, 2024 - July 24, 2024
Cumul. Return7.5%
Avg win$783
Avg loss$1,265

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio0.11
Sortino Ratio0.15
Calmar Ratio0.64

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life76.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-18.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity24.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss27.5%
Chance of 20% account loss2.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)701
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,265
Avg Win$783
# Winners44
Sum Trade PL (losers)$29,084
Sum Trade PL (winners)$34,466
Num Months Winners4
# Losers23
% Winners65.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table36

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1418.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)23.64
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago768

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.98
Daily leverage (max)10.77

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.08
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.04
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.71
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.85
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.08

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.30
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df8
t0.84
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.18
Sortino ratio3.27
Upside Potential Ratio5.25
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.30
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.01
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.24
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.38
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error7
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.38
Mean0.26
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df8
t0.78
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.11
Sortino ratio2.73
Upside Potential Ratio4.71
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error7
t(b)-0.22
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.74
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.22
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df201
t0.87
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.22
Sortino ratio1.44
Upside Potential Ratio6.47
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms127
N of observations202
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error200
t(b)3.14
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.20
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df201
t0.77
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.10
Sortino ratio1.23
Upside Potential Ratio6.17
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms127
N of observations202
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error200
t(b)3.14
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.33
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.18
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.79
df130
t-0.57
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.98
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio4.17
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.93
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms83
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.53
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)3.15
p(b)0.33
t(a)-1.01
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
Mean-0.20
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.89
df130
t-0.63
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio-1.09
Upside Potential Ratio3.98
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.94
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms83
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.20
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.27
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.33
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)3.13
p(b)0.33
t(a)-1.07
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.38
Jensen alpha (a)-0.33
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations202
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low29
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high28
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low20
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high17
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.46
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.26
Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.07
Median0.10
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375083392
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)159
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.32
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.40
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.15
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.16
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.96
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.96
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.51

Trading record

Placed 16 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MES U4long11Jul 23, 2024Jul 24, 2024($5,279)
MES U4long7Jul 18, 2024Jul 18, 2024($1,347)
MES U4long7Jul 7, 2024Jul 8, 2024$412
MES U4short7Jul 1, 2024Jul 5, 2024($2,563)
MES U4long7Jun 30, 2024Jul 1, 2024$202
MES U4long7Jun 26, 2024Jun 27, 2024$535
MES U4long7Jun 23, 2024Jun 25, 2024($166)
MES M4short7Jun 11, 2024Jun 11, 2024($183)
MES M4short7Jun 10, 2024Jun 10, 2024($113)
MES M4short14Jun 5, 2024Jun 6, 2024($2,747)
MES M4short7Jun 5, 2024Jun 5, 2024$368
MES M4long7May 13, 2024May 13, 2024$27
MES M4long7May 10, 2024May 10, 2024$150
MES M4long7May 8, 2024May 9, 2024$998
MES M4short7May 6, 2024May 7, 2024($87)
MES M4long4May 5, 2024May 6, 2024$945
MES M4long7May 1, 2024May 3, 2024$3,755
MES M4long21Apr 21, 2024May 1, 2024$3,991
MES M4long14Apr 17, 2024Apr 18, 2024($6,352)
MES M4long8Apr 16, 2024Apr 17, 2024$420
MES M4long14Apr 15, 2024Apr 15, 2024($1,417)
MES M4short7Apr 15, 2024Apr 15, 2024$141
MES M4long4Apr 10, 2024Apr 11, 2024$5
MES M4short2Apr 10, 2024Apr 10, 2024$98
MES M4long11Apr 9, 2024Apr 10, 2024$112
MES M4long11Apr 9, 2024Apr 9, 2024$62
MES M4long7Apr 4, 2024Apr 5, 2024$683
MES M4short8Apr 3, 2024Apr 3, 2024($50)
MES M4long12Apr 1, 2024Apr 2, 2024($2,794)
MES M4long8Mar 26, 2024Mar 26, 2024$70

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.