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Right Risk Right Reward

Stocks · Started Sep 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
37.5%
Max Drawdown
35.5%
Trades
30
Win Trades
73.3%
Profit Factor
2.60
Win Months
61.1%

About this strategy

My stock trading strategy that aims to provide a favourable risk-reward ratio is the "Value Investing" approach. Value investing involves identifying stocks that are undervalued relative to their intrinsic or fundamental value. The idea is to buy these stocks at a discounted price, hold them for the medium to long term, and sell when the market recognizes their true worth.

Here are the key steps in implementing a low-risk value investing strategy:

Fundamental Analysis:
Margin of Safety:
Diversification:
Long-Term Perspective:
Risk Management:
Continuous Monitoring:

I Regularly monitor the financial health and performance of the companies in this portfolio and am ready to adjust holdings if there are changes in the fundamentals or if the stock is no longer undervalued.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20231.5-12.442.824.858.4
2024-7.229.70.7-5.515.73.718.7-17.4-6.04.715.2-0.951.5
2025-5.5-15.2-1.30.59.729.12.78.83.910.8-14.54.729.6
2026-9.5-10.1-0.214.910.114.5-33.14.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/18/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age36 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades30
# Profitable22
% Profitable73.3%
Avg trade duration219.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown35.5%
drawdown periodJuly 16, 2024 - April 12, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)37.5%
Avg win$2,960
Avg loss$3,081

Ratios

W:L ratio2.64
Sharpe Ratio0.77
Sortino Ratio1.12
Calmar Ratio3.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.52
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life71.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)83.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)37.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.4%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)38.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity43.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss35.5%
Chance of 20% account loss7.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)550
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)308

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,081
Avg Win$2,960
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,647
Sum Trade PL (winners)$65,124
Num Months Winners22
# Losers8
% Winners73.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct34

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table36

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)315842.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)5264.04
Avg Trade Length219.30
Last Trade Ago772

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.20
Daily leverage (max)2.13

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta1.76
Treynor Index0.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.12
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.85
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.68
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.93
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats76.91
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.33
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.52
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.16
SD0.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.61
df13
t1.84
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.61
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.52
Sortino ratio5.03
Upside Potential Ratio6.91
Upside part of mean1.59
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms6
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion1.16
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.68
Covariance0.06
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.60
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error12
t(b)1.42
p(b)0.31
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.99
Jensen alpha (a)0.60
Mean0.93
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.42
df13
t1.63
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.38
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.31
Sortino ratio3.74
Upside Potential Ratio5.61
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.60
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms6
N of observations14
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.93
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.05
r0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error12
t(b)1.58
p(b)0.29
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.77
Treynor index (mean / b)0.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
VaR(95%)0.19
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean1.08
SD0.72
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.48
df306
t1.61
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.30
Sortino ratio2.06
Upside Potential Ratio7.43
Upside part of mean3.89
Downside part of mean-2.81
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms167
N negative terms140
N of observations307
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion1.08
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.72
Covariance0.08
r0.51
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.39
DF error305
t(b)10.35
p(b)0
t(a)0.47
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.42
Treynor index (mean / b)0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.79
SD0.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df306
t1.13
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.85
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio6.34
Upside part of mean3.77
Downside part of mean-2.97
Upside SD0.48
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms167
N negative terms140
N of observations307
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.79
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.76
Covariance0.08
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.45
DF error305
t(b)9.70
p(b)0
t(a)0.04
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.86
SD1.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df130
t0.61
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.62
Sortino ratio1.13
Upside Potential Ratio6.50
Upside part of mean4.95
Downside part of mean-4.08
Upside SD0.65
Downside SD0.76
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion0.86
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.01
Covariance0.16
r0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.53
Mean Square Error0.74
DF error129
t(b)6.99
p(b)0.18
t(a)-0.43
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.91
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)-0.53
Mean0.32
SD1.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df130
t0.21
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.06
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio5.43
Upside part of mean4.75
Downside part of mean-4.43
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.87
N nonnegative terms69
N negative terms62
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.74
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion1.07
Covariance0.16
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.02
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error129
t(b)6.47
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.76
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.24
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)-1.02
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations14
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.95
Median1.04
Quartile 31.26
Maximum1.42
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.16
Mean of quarter 41.34
Inter Quartile Range0.32
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.18
Number of observations307
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.60

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.09
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.19
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.35
Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.07
Median0.30
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.30
Mean of quarter 30.33
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-468451872
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)270
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.75
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.59
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)8.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.28
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.40
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.22
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.37
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.41
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.25
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.24

Trading record

Placed 11 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ENVX long800Jan 8, 2024Jul 15, 2024$4,475
BIDU long95Feb 8, 2024May 17, 2024$593
BABA long135Jan 5, 2024May 17, 2024$1,908
HEPS long5000Mar 15, 2024May 14, 2024$36
LAC long2000Jan 23, 2024Apr 2, 2024$4,235
APP long260Jan 5, 2024Mar 18, 2024$7,241
PYPL long170Feb 8, 2024Mar 15, 2024$953
GCT long450Jan 8, 2024Feb 8, 2024$2,997
ML long137.5Nov 20, 2023Jan 4, 2024$2,774
SURG long750Nov 20, 2023Jan 4, 2024$817
ENVX long450Nov 10, 2023Jan 4, 2024$1,095
HEPS long1500Dec 12, 2023Jan 4, 2024$104
BABA long33.75Dec 20, 2023Jan 4, 2024$18
APP long62.5Dec 28, 2023Jan 4, 2024($183)
RBLX long187.5Sep 19, 2023Jan 2, 2024$3,376
DOCU long148.75Oct 10, 2023Jan 2, 2024$2,605
DESP long450Nov 27, 2023Dec 20, 2023$697
SHOP long86.25Sep 19, 2023Dec 8, 2023$1,225
SWKS long50Sep 18, 2023Dec 7, 2023$181
SNOW long33.75Sep 25, 2023Dec 7, 2023$1,278
GRBK long148.75Oct 10, 2023Nov 22, 2023$850
BABA long57.5Oct 11, 2023Nov 20, 2023($556)
DDOG long57.5Sep 25, 2023Nov 10, 2023$887
SBOW long137.5Sep 18, 2023Oct 26, 2023($288)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.