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The Rosa Negra

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
17.9%
Max Drawdown
14.6%
Trades
173
Win Trades
62.4%
Profit Factor
3.70
Win Months
26.3%

About this strategy

This is a well-structured and diversified algorithmic trading approach designed to maximize profits and manage risk trough diversification, effectively keeping both a high Sharpe Ratio, resilience to market fluctuations and a low draw down. The strategy's primary focus is on aligning various trading instruments and systems, resulting in a comprehensive and robust portfolio. By combining the US Indices, ADRs, leveraged ETFs, and dip-buyers, The Rosa Negra aims to capitalize on multiple market opportunities simultaneously.

Despite new to C2, The Rosa Negra have been running out of sample in the stock markets for quite some time, however investing in stocks and ETFs involves considerable risk and past performance does not warrant future profits.

Non-hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-0.01.8-4.97.70.44.7
20240.3-1.414.66.66.36.62.212.40.00.00.00.057.5
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/23/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age37 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades173
# Profitable108
% Profitable62.4%
Avg trade duration5.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.6%
drawdown periodJuly 16, 2024 - Aug 05, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)17.9%
Avg win$343
Avg loss$160

Ratios

W:L ratio3.65
Sharpe Ratio1.21
Sortino Ratio2.20
Calmar Ratio4.61

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.22
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life72.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-7.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)17.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)18.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss4.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$160
Avg Win$343
# Winners108
Sum Trade PL (losers)$10,395
Sum Trade PL (winners)$37,022
Num Months Winners11
# Losers65
% Winners62.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct949

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table38

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7303.60
Avg Position Time (hrs)121.73
Avg Trade Length5.10
Last Trade Ago742

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.99
Daily leverage (max)2.41

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.16
Treynor Index0.26

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.87
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats76.58
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats74
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.65
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.97
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.53

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.49
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.11
df12
t2.35
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.18
Sortino ratio13.00
Upside Potential Ratio14.37
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms3
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error11
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.47
t(a)1.86
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.04
Treynor index (mean / b)18.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.48
Mean0.46
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.15
df12
t2.39
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.22
Sortino ratio12.06
Upside Potential Ratio13.44
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms3
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error11
t(b)0.14
p(b)0.45
t(a)1.87
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.96
Treynor index (mean / b)9.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.44
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.65
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.64
df300
t2.84
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.48
Sortino ratio4.69
Upside Potential Ratio10.27
Upside part of mean0.97
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms150
N negative terms151
N of observations301
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error299
t(b)4.16
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.30
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.66
Treynor index (mean / b)2.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
Mean0.43
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.57
df300
t2.77
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.41
Sortino ratio4.49
Upside Potential Ratio10.05
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.53
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms150
N negative terms151
N of observations301
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.34
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error299
t(b)4.24
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.25
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)2.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.34
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.50
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.80
df130
t1.99
p0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.59
Sortino ratio4.75
Upside Potential Ratio9.39
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms78
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.81
Mean of criterion0.50
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.39
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)2.52
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.54
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)3.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.39
Mean0.49
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.72
df130
t1.94
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.51
Sortino ratio4.53
Upside Potential Ratio9.15
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms78
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.77
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.37
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)2.59
p(b)0.36
t(a)1.51
p(a)0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)3.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.37
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.01
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations301
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high42
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.60
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high23
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.02
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.03
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-394892064
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.64
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.62
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)20.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs20.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.09
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal29.92
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.67
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.70

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AAL long723Jul 16, 2024Aug 21, 2024($207)
SPY long71Jul 1, 2024Aug 21, 2024$1,001
TTWO long90Aug 1, 2024Aug 21, 2024$978
QCOM long80Aug 1, 2024Aug 21, 2024$751
GGAL long756Aug 1, 2024Aug 21, 2024$4,682
MAR long54Jul 31, 2024Aug 1, 2024($27)
TQQQ long254Jun 3, 2024Aug 1, 2024$1,227
QCOM long73Jul 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024$521
NVDA long116Jul 30, 2024Jul 31, 2024$750
EQR long112Jul 12, 2024Jul 15, 2024$69
TEO long3000Jul 12, 2024Jul 15, 2024$385
PGR long35Jul 9, 2024Jul 12, 2024$129
PM long73Jul 2, 2024Jul 11, 2024$202
TECH long103Jul 2, 2024Jul 8, 2024$91
LPX long90Jul 1, 2024Jul 3, 2024$44
SPY long73Jun 3, 2024Jun 27, 2024$1,185
FAST long209Jun 14, 2024Jun 26, 2024$383
PFG long101Jun 10, 2024Jun 17, 2024($106)
XRAY long502Jun 14, 2024Jun 17, 2024($70)
ZM long225Jun 13, 2024Jun 17, 2024($338)
MNST long252Jun 12, 2024Jun 13, 2024$33
DDOG long110May 31, 2024Jun 4, 2024($474)
OKTA long143May 31, 2024Jun 3, 2024$562
MU long63May 24, 2024May 28, 2024$247
BMA long323May 16, 2024May 17, 2024$110
TEO long2295May 16, 2024May 17, 2024($5)
BBAR long1861May 16, 2024May 17, 2024$274
AKAM long136May 10, 2024May 14, 2024$1
TEO long2202May 9, 2024May 10, 2024$149
BMA long329May 9, 2024May 10, 2024$437

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.