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Index Futures Trading

Futures · Futures · Started Oct 2023

Trades Own Strategy

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
58.5%
Max Drawdown
52.8%
Trades
189
Win Trades
53.4%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
55.6%
Subscribe $75/mo

About this strategy

I use daily and intraday charts to decide when to trade typically ES and NQ futures. I may not make a trade every day but at times I may make make 1-6 trades per day. When you trade futures, you should be comfortable in losing significant portions of your position. They are risky. My goal is extreme capital appreciation using well timed market entries. I will use the strategies I have learned over more than 20 years of investing to attempt make this successful.
THE PRICE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GO UP TO $75 PER MONTH ON 1/1/2024

Trend-following Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20230.622.810.135.9
202411.47.9-1.4-10.317.415.1-10.90.56.4-1.85.4-1.339.7
20252.1-13.5-7.88.6-4.615.23.1-6.031.613.714.3-2.557.2
2026-2.4-13.8-18.5-5.275.55.3-13.526.0-1.529.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/9/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age36 months
C2 Rank390
What it tradesFutures
# Trades189
# Profitable101
% Profitable53.4%
Avg trade duration4.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown52.8%
drawdown periodDec 05, 2025 - April 28, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)58.5%
Avg win$808
Avg loss$554

Ratios

W:L ratio1.67
Sharpe Ratio1.05
Sortino Ratio1.57
Calmar Ratio1.50

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.27
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life77.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)208.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)58.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.6%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status193.8%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)64.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity10.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss60.0%
Chance of 20% account loss34.0%
Chance of 30% account loss23.5%
Chance of 40% account loss8.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)638
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)968
C2 Score390
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)839

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?186685
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$555
Avg Win$808
# Winners101
Sum Trade PL (losers)$48,845
Sum Trade PL (winners)$81,596
Num Months Winners20
# Losers88
% Winners53.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table36

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7049.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)117.49
Avg Trade Length4.90
Last Trade Ago13

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.76
Daily leverage (max)18.68

Regression

Alpha0.11
Beta0.77
Treynor Index0.19

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.44
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.33
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.62
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df33
t1.95
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio2.49
Upside Potential Ratio4.10
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms12
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error32
t(b)1.76
p(b)0.04
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.08
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
Mean0.48
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df33
t1.66
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.35
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms12
N of observations34
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.02
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.22
DF error32
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.03
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.55
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df755
t2.46
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio2.27
Upside Potential Ratio9.74
Upside part of mean2.36
Downside part of mean-1.81
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms364
N negative terms392
N of observations756
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.55
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.76
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error754
t(b)8.69
p(b)0
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.83
Treynor index (mean / b)0.73
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
Mean0.48
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.26
df755
t2.15
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.42
Sortino ratio1.93
Upside Potential Ratio9.35
Upside part of mean2.32
Downside part of mean-1.84
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms364
N negative terms392
N of observations756
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.48
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.75
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error754
t(b)8.68
p(b)0
t(a)1.64
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.77
Treynor index (mean / b)0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean1.16
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.25
df130
t1.60
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.04
Sortino ratio4.26
Upside Potential Ratio12.39
Upside part of mean3.38
Downside part of mean-2.22
Upside SD0.44
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion1.16
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance0.03
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.84
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.74
Mean Square Error0.20
DF error129
t(b)6.47
p(b)0.20
t(a)1.17
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.00
Treynor index (mean / b)0.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.74
Mean1.03
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.04
df130
t1.45
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.82
Sortino ratio3.70
Upside Potential Ratio11.79
Upside part of mean3.29
Downside part of mean-2.26
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms74
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion1.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.03
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.63
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error129
t(b)6.49
p(b)0.20
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.87
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.63
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations34
Minimum0.75
Quartile 10.98
Median1.06
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.62
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.22
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.62
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.20
Number of observations756
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low36
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high31
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.08
Median0.13
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations34
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.44
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.36
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.27
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations6
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.08
Median0.13
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30.17
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-545833408
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)144
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.67
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.02
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.66
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.50
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.54
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.40
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.88
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)9.01
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal32.31

Trading record

Placed 511 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ U6long1Aug 10, 2026Aug 18, 2026($475)
MES U6long1Aug 17, 2026Aug 18, 2026($363)
MES U6long2Aug 3, 2026Aug 7, 2026$1,208
MNQ U6long4Jul 28, 2026Aug 7, 2026$10,802
MES U6long2Jul 24, 2026Jul 24, 2026($495)
MNQ U6long2Jul 24, 2026Jul 24, 2026($921)
MNQ U6long7Jul 13, 2026Jul 23, 2026($1,150)
MES U6short1Jul 20, 2026Jul 21, 2026($192)
MNQ U6short1Jul 12, 2026Jul 12, 2026$399
MES U6long1Jul 1, 2026Jul 7, 2026($171)
MNQ U6long2Jun 25, 2026Jul 7, 2026($1,980)
MNQ U6long2Jun 22, 2026Jun 22, 2026($159)
MNQ U6long2Jun 17, 2026Jun 22, 2026$185
MNQ M6long3May 19, 2026Jun 17, 2026$5,640
MNQ M6long2May 18, 2026May 19, 2026($607)
MNQ M6long2May 13, 2026May 17, 2026($1,013)
MNQ M6long2May 12, 2026May 12, 2026$188
MNQ M6short2May 12, 2026May 12, 2026$738
MNQ M6long2May 12, 2026May 12, 2026($463)
MES M6short1May 11, 2026May 12, 2026$9
QMGC M6long1May 11, 2026May 11, 2026($488)
MNQ M6long3Apr 26, 2026May 11, 2026$12,708
MNQ M6short1Apr 19, 2026Apr 22, 2026($446)
MNQ M6short1Apr 10, 2026Apr 14, 2026($1,350)
MNQ M6short2Apr 3, 2026Apr 7, 2026($1,890)
MNQ M6long2Mar 26, 2026Mar 27, 2026($1,465)
MNQ M6short1Mar 23, 2026Mar 23, 2026$65
MNQ M6long2Mar 20, 2026Mar 20, 2026($210)
MNQ H6long2Mar 5, 2026Mar 8, 2026($3,204)
MNQ H6short1Mar 3, 2026Mar 4, 2026($403)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.