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NextGen Tech

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.3%
Max Drawdown
11.7%
Trades
59
Win Trades
59.3%
Profit Factor
3.20
Win Months
7.1%

Short Term Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202354.612.03.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.080.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/5/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age42 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades59
# Profitable35
% Profitable59.3%
Avg trade duration2.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown11.7%
drawdown periodMarch 18, 2023 - March 20, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)18.3%
Avg win$375
Avg loss$173

Ratios

W:L ratio3.16
Sharpe Ratio1.16
Sortino Ratio3.45
Calmar Ratio18.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life88.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-11.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss12.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$173
Avg Win$375
# Winners35
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,150
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,118
Num Months Winners3
# Losers24
% Winners59.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table42

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)171.68
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.86
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago1211

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)9.73
Daily leverage (max)22.24

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta-0.01
Treynor Index-4.50

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.25
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.02
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.04
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.44

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1.00
SD0.69
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.30
df8
t1.25
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio151.54
Upside Potential Ratio154.37
Upside part of mean1.02
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms6
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.66
Mean of criterion1.00
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.69
Covariance-0.05
r-0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.88
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.24
Mean Square Error0.44
DF error7
t(b)-1.33
p(b)0.89
t(a)1.86
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-5.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.53
Jensen alpha (a)2.24
Mean0.81
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df8
t1.29
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.71
Sortino ratio123.27
Upside Potential Ratio126.10
Upside part of mean0.83
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.56
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms6
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance-0.04
r-0.47
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.85
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error7
t(b)-1.41
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.95
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.09
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.49
Jensen alpha (a)1.85
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.76
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.34
df216
t3.05
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.52
Sortino ratio9.85
Upside Potential Ratio12.73
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms190
N of observations217
Mean of predictor0.81
Mean of criterion0.76
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.79
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error215
t(b)-0.71
p(b)0.76
t(a)3.12
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-21.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.79
Mean0.73
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.31
df216
t3.02
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.49
Sortino ratio9.32
Upside Potential Ratio12.18
Upside part of mean0.96
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms190
N of observations217
Mean of predictor0.76
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance-0.00
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error215
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.76
t(a)3.09
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-21.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.76
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.07
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6738165884780544
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)6.56310304861258e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.61
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.37
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations217
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-410891584
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.86
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)18.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal45.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 60 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ M3long10May 3, 2023May 5, 2023$348
MNQ M3long5May 2, 2023May 2, 2023$407
MNQ M3long5May 1, 2023May 1, 2023$495
MNQ M3long5May 1, 2023May 1, 2023($177)
MNQ M3long5May 1, 2023May 1, 2023($116)
MNQ M3long5May 1, 2023May 1, 2023($47)
MNQ M3short5Apr 26, 2023Apr 26, 2023($90)
QQQ2325D314 long10Apr 25, 2023Apr 26, 2023($377)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023($105)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023($144)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023($305)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023($22)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023($267)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023($9)
MNQ M3long5Apr 25, 2023Apr 25, 2023$13
MNQ M3long5Apr 24, 2023Apr 24, 2023$431
MNQ M3long5Apr 21, 2023Apr 21, 2023$373
MNQ M3long5Apr 20, 2023Apr 20, 2023$457
MNQ M3long5Apr 19, 2023Apr 19, 2023$398
MNQ M3long10Apr 18, 2023Apr 18, 2023$114
MNQ M3long10Apr 17, 2023Apr 17, 2023$479
MNQ M3long5Apr 14, 2023Apr 14, 2023$263
MNQ M3long5Apr 13, 2023Apr 13, 2023$478
MNQ M3long10Apr 12, 2023Apr 12, 2023$909
MNQ M3long5Apr 12, 2023Apr 12, 2023($863)
MNQ M3long3Apr 5, 2023Apr 5, 2023($96)
MNQ M3long3Apr 4, 2023Apr 4, 2023$157
MNQ M3long3Apr 3, 2023Apr 3, 2023$300
MNQ M3long3Mar 28, 2023Mar 28, 2023$48
MNQ M3long3Mar 24, 2023Mar 24, 2023$234

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.