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SP 500 Futures Scalper

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2023

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.7%
Max Drawdown
46.7%
Trades
601
Win Trades
62.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
20.0%

About this strategy

ANY CALENDAR MONTH THIS STRATEGY DOES NOT RETURN POSITIVE ROI (as reported by C2) CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS WILL GET THEIR NEXT MONTH FREE.

Strategy details, discussion and updates are here: https://forums.collective2.com/t/sp-500-futures-scalper-2024-new-ath-and-50-off/

SP 500 Futures Scalper opens long and short positions in futures markets trading S&P 500 E-Mini and Micro E-Mini futures contracts. It is designed for account balances of at least USD$60,000. The maximum position is three E-Mini contracts (or thirty Micro E-Mini contracts).

- I trade this strategy live in my own Interactive Brokers account. Every trade is posted using C2 BrokerTransmit, and is a trade I have executed. What you trade, I trade.

- On the backend, this strategy is actually a collection of independent “long only” and “short only” strategies. So C2’s BrokerTransmit system does not break, long positions trade Micro E-Mini contracts, and short positions trade E-Mini contracts.

- This strategy is AI generated and tuned weekly (over the weekend).

- This strategy is 100% automated and run 24x5. I NEVER place a manual order, or override an automated order.

- My tuning and trading servers are beefy dedicated physical servers (not virtual machines) sitting in a data center in New Jersey with <2ms latency to Interactive Brokers. I’m not running this out of my basement or off of my laptop.

- Collective2 is not my full-time gig, but automated algorithmic trading has been my full-time gig for the last six years.

This strategy was generated using genetic algorithm AI and opens a position only when a convergence of technical indicator values result in an acceptable trade setup, and then calculates aggressive take profit exits, ideal for volatile markets with frequent sentiment-driven intraday reversals that destroy most day-trading strategies. The manager has traded this strategy live since May 2022 with their own funds through their broker.

ALL RECORDED TRADES IN TRADE RECORD ARE LIVE TRADES IN THE MANAGER’S OWN ACCOUNT. In other words, I’m trading MY money with this strategy, not just yours. C2 trade signals are generated by mirroring the trades in my live Interactive Brokers account.

Short Term

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-4.0-3.27.18.43.811.49.75.6-14.9-8.711.42.428.0
202415.3-4.1-2.7-12.4-18.9-17.40.00.00.00.00.00.0-36.8
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/17/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age44 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades601
# Profitable377
% Profitable62.7%
Avg trade duration8.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.7%
drawdown periodJan 29, 2024 - June 30, 2024
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.7%
Avg win$619
Avg loss$1,023

Ratios

W:L ratio1.02
Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Sortino Ratio-0.31
Calmar Ratio0.10

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.14
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life91.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-112.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity87.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss77.0%
Chance of 20% account loss39.5%
Chance of 30% account loss13.5%
Chance of 40% account loss3.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)446
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?186342
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,023
Avg Win$619
# Winners377
Sum Trade PL (losers)$229,084
Sum Trade PL (winners)$233,343
Num Months Winners9
# Losers224
% Winners62.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)515.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)8.59
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago799

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)7.27
Daily leverage (max)28.62

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.19
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-26.93
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.32
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df28
t0.21
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.39
Sortino ratio0.19
Upside Potential Ratio1.75
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms19
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error27
t(b)1.43
p(b)0.08
t(a)-0.43
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean0.01
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df28
t0.04
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.57
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms10
N negative terms19
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error27
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.09
t(a)-0.54
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
Mean0.03
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df651
t0.20
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.37
Sortino ratio0.17
Upside Potential Ratio5.68
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms196
N negative terms456
N of observations652
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error650
t(b)4.00
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean0.00
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df651
t0.04
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio5.45
Upside part of mean0.90
Downside part of mean-0.90
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms196
N negative terms456
N of observations652
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error650
t(b)3.93
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.32
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6796814200078336
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.60478829193524e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations29
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations652
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low114
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high110
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.08
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.13
Mean of quarter 40.34
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.58
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-438765408
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)153
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.25
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1948 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U4short3Jun 28, 2024Jun 28, 2024$2,151
MES U4long4Jun 28, 2024Jun 28, 2024($425)
MES U4long6Jun 28, 2024Jun 28, 2024($307)
MES U4long8Jun 27, 2024Jun 28, 2024($140)
MES U4long12Jun 27, 2024Jun 27, 2024($292)
MES U4long4Jun 27, 2024Jun 27, 2024$80
ES U4short4Jun 26, 2024Jun 27, 2024($620)
MES U4long22Jun 26, 2024Jun 26, 2024($606)
MES U4long8Jun 26, 2024Jun 26, 2024($485)
MES U4long18Jun 25, 2024Jun 26, 2024$1,299
ES U4short3Jun 25, 2024Jun 25, 2024($2,687)
MES U4long6Jun 25, 2024Jun 25, 2024($307)
MES U4long8Jun 24, 2024Jun 24, 2024($190)
MES U4long4Jun 24, 2024Jun 24, 2024($205)
ES U4short3Jun 21, 2024Jun 21, 2024$1,314
MES U4long4Jun 20, 2024Jun 21, 2024($165)
ES U4short3Jun 20, 2024Jun 21, 2024($2,637)
MES U4long8Jun 20, 2024Jun 20, 2024($480)
MES U4long4Jun 20, 2024Jun 20, 2024$175
MES U4long8Jun 20, 2024Jun 20, 2024($385)
MES U4long28Jun 18, 2024Jun 20, 2024$676
ES U4short3Jun 18, 2024Jun 20, 2024($2,212)
MES U4long4Jun 18, 2024Jun 18, 2024$115
MES U4long14Jun 17, 2024Jun 17, 2024($777)
MES U4long4Jun 17, 2024Jun 17, 2024$165
MES U4long4Jun 17, 2024Jun 17, 2024$150
MES U4long4Jun 17, 2024Jun 17, 2024$175
MES U4long8Jun 17, 2024Jun 17, 2024$810
MES M4long16Jun 13, 2024Jun 14, 2024$82
MES M4long4Jun 13, 2024Jun 13, 2024$175

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.