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DSX50

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.3%
Max Drawdown
25.7%
Trades
454
Win Trades
62.8%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
24.4%

About this strategy

ES, NQ, YM, mini dax, DJ EURO STOXX 50

Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20233.05.912.11.26.31.49.7-4.75.12.52.0-23.217.5
202438.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.038.6
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/12/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$37,840
Age44 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades454
# Profitable285
% Profitable62.8%
Avg trade duration6.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown25.7%
drawdown periodDec 19, 2023 - Dec 29, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)14.3%
Avg win$279
Avg loss$281

Ratios

W:L ratio1.67
Sharpe Ratio0.83
Sortino Ratio1.28
Calmar Ratio2.64

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life91.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-28.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)18.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss5.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated98.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$281
Avg Win$279
# Winners285
Sum Trade PL (losers)$47,435
Sum Trade PL (winners)$79,408
Num Months Winners11
# Losers169
% Winners62.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)383.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.39
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago952

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.22
Daily leverage (max)39.46

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0
Treynor Index-13.62

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades75.44
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.53
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.37
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats79
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.79
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.45
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.30
df15
t4.01
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.23
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.36
Sortino ratio128.14
Upside Potential Ratio129.64
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms3
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.01
r-0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.41
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error14
t(b)-2.25
p(b)0.76
t(a)5.01
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.09
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
Mean0.43
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.35
df15
t4.08
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio5.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation5.43
Sortino ratio123.64
Upside Potential Ratio125.14
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms3
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance-0.01
r-0.52
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error14
t(b)-2.27
p(b)0.76
t(a)5.11
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.43
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.31
df367
t2.75
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.98
Sortino ratio3.78
Upside Potential Ratio7.28
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms142
N negative terms226
N of observations368
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.43
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error366
t(b)-0.25
p(b)0.60
t(a)2.75
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.74
Treynor index (mean / b)-37.72
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.41
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.23
df367
t2.64
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.89
Sortino ratio3.53
Upside Potential Ratio7.00
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.40
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms142
N negative terms226
N of observations368
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.41
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error366
t(b)-0.24
p(b)0.59
t(a)2.65
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)-38.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.41
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.19
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.80
df130
t0.57
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.57
Sortino ratio1.20
Upside Potential Ratio4.29
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms111
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)-0.28
p(b)0.52
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.16
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.68
df130
t0.48
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.45
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio4.06
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.49
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms111
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.97
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error129
t(b)-0.26
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.52
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum1
Quartile 11.01
Median1.03
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations368
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high56
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations31
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.21
Quartile 10.21
Median0.21
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-471491936
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)10
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.63
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal16.16
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.55
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.64
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs9.49
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal25.41
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.21

Trading record

Placed 1742 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES H4long5Jan 24, 2024Jan 24, 2024$123
MES H4long20Jan 23, 2024Jan 23, 2024$17
MES H4long30Jan 23, 2024Jan 23, 2024($26)
MES H4long10Jan 23, 2024Jan 23, 2024$23
MES H4long20Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$102
MES H4long40Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$38
MES H4long27Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$78
MES H4long13Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024($7)
MES H4long20Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$8
MES H4long30Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$115
MNQ H4long10Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$90
MES H4long10Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$27
MYM H4long8Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$22
MYM H4long30Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$3
M6E H4long12Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024($167)
MNQ H4long20Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$14
MES H4long20Jan 22, 2024Jan 22, 2024$9
MES H4long5Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$15
MES H4long5Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024($6)
MES H4long60Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024($23)
MES H4long10Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$18
MES H4long20Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$165
MES H4long10Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$73
MES H4long20Jan 19, 2024Jan 19, 2024$284
MES H4long10Jan 18, 2024Jan 19, 2024$236
MES H4long20Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024$87
MES H4long20Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024$35
MES H4long30Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024$1,048
MES H4long10Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024$138
MES H4long10Jan 18, 2024Jan 18, 2024$111

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.