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The American Dream

Options · Options · Started Jan 2023

Trades Own Strategy BrokerTransmit

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.1%
Max Drawdown
36.7%
Trades
93
Win Trades
90.3%
Profit Factor
1.80
Win Months
46.7%
Subscribe $30/mo

About this strategy

In my years of quest for return, I have come across many pitfalls which have always cost money (and sometimes a lot of money!).

The "holy grail" does not exist, but it is indeed possible to make a return in a structured way and thus earn money on the stock exchange!

I have been a supporter of writing call and put options on the Dutch AEX-index for many years now (2016)
as you can see on my Dutch website www.optiesbeleggen.nl

By writing call and put options on the AEX index (Short Strangle), a good return can be achieved on a structural basis
as you can see from my verified track record.

Now we copy these lessons to America and position a Short Strangle on the SPY

I support the motto:
put your money where your mouth is and that is why I trade this strategy myself in my own investment portfolio.
At C2 this is called TOS (Trade Own Strategy).

If you also want to follow this system, make sure you have the correct trading permission.
To follow this strategy, you must have the permissions at your broker,
allowing writing options on the S&P500 (SPY).

Liquid assets and profits are invested in monthly paying high dividend stocks.

Premium Collecting

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-0.51.31.11.21.4-1.3-0.9-1.8-0.31.20.10.31.8
2024-0.00.81.11.70.90.2-1.00.20.30.42.02.89.8
2025-1.44.72.9-15.44.2-0.8-0.6-0.6-0.8-0.60.80.0-8.9
2026-1.20.0-1.3-0.60.0-1.3-0.6-0.70.0-5.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/9/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age45 months
C2 Rank6
What it tradesOptions
# Trades93
# Profitable84
% Profitable90.3%
Avg trade duration32.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown36.7%
drawdown periodMarch 27, 2025 - April 10, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.1%
Avg win$68
Avg loss$349

Ratios

W:L ratio1.83
Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Sortino Ratio-0.06
Calmar Ratio0.29

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.29
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life96.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-102.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity26.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options1.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss54.5%
Chance of 20% account loss19.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)593
C2 Score6
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?186333
TOS percent100.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$349
Avg Win$68
# Winners84
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,140
Sum Trade PL (winners)$5,736
Num Months Winners22
# Losers9
% Winners90.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)46061.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)767.69
Avg Trade Length32
Last Trade Ago289

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.37
Daily leverage (max)11.57

Regression

Alpha-0.02
Beta0.39
Treynor Index-0.01

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades1.24
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades1.36
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades448.84
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)421.33
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades195.61
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df31
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio1.79
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms10
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error30
t(b)-0.74
p(b)0.77
t(a)1.49
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df31
t1.20
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.93
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio1.69
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms10
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error30
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.38
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.08
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df711
t0.66
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.51
Upside Potential Ratio3.36
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms392
N negative terms320
N of observations712
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error710
t(b)8.44
p(b)0
t(a)-0.11
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.29
df711
t0.49
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.48
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.48
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio3.14
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms392
N negative terms320
N of observations712
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error710
t(b)8.42
p(b)0
t(a)-0.25
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.40
df130
t-0.29
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.37
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio6.11
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.86
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.91
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.41
df130
t-0.29
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio-0.84
Upside Potential Ratio6.08
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.02
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms28
N negative terms103
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.02
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.87
p(b)0.45
t(a)-0.44
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.91
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations712
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low71
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high76
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.62
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.78
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low18
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.06
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations64
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high11
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-519128032
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)14
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.92
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.92
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.17
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.54
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.82
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.74

Trading record

Placed 107 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SPY2521W620 short1Oct 29, 2025Nov 22, 2025$73
SPY2521K716 short1Oct 27, 2025Nov 22, 2025$65
AGNC2519I10 short1Jun 16, 2025Sep 17, 2025($19)
HRZN2518G10 short1Jun 13, 2025Jul 19, 2025$1
HRZN2518G10 short1May 13, 2025Jun 12, 2025($2)
SPY2520R540 short1May 13, 2025May 27, 2025$68
SPY2520F590 short1May 13, 2025May 27, 2025$74
SPY2516E600 long1May 13, 2025May 17, 2025($49)
SPY2516Q420 short1May 13, 2025May 17, 2025$0
SPY2516Q420 short1Apr 25, 2025May 13, 2025$37
SPY2516E600 long1Apr 25, 2025May 13, 2025$16
SPY2520F590 short1Apr 3, 2025May 13, 2025($760)
HRZN2518G10 short1Feb 3, 2025May 13, 2025$6
SPY2520R540 short1Nov 27, 2024May 13, 2025$620
SPY2517D605 short1Mar 26, 2025Apr 18, 2025$39
SPY2517P516 short1Mar 24, 2025Apr 4, 2025($1,834)
SPY2520F600 short1Mar 18, 2025Apr 3, 2025$288
SPY2521O530 short1Feb 27, 2025Mar 22, 2025$68
SPY2521C630 short1Feb 24, 2025Mar 22, 2025$34
SPY2520F620 short1Mar 6, 2025Mar 18, 2025$356
SPY2520F630 short1Jan 13, 2025Mar 6, 2025$265
SPY2521N562 short1Jan 30, 2025Feb 22, 2025$70
SPY2521B630 short1Jan 27, 2025Feb 22, 2025$46
SPY2517A625 short1Dec 24, 2024Jan 18, 2025$30
SPY2517M520 short1Dec 23, 2024Jan 18, 2025$78
SPY2520F660 short1Nov 27, 2024Jan 13, 2025$437
SPY2420L625 short1Nov 25, 2024Dec 21, 2024$46
SPY2420X556 short1Nov 26, 2024Dec 21, 2024$76
SPY2415W525 short1Oct 24, 2024Nov 16, 2024$86
SPY2415K620 short1Oct 21, 2024Nov 16, 2024$34

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.