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RC 105 ForEx

Forex · Started Jan 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
25.6%
Max Drawdown
29.5%
Trades
728
Win Trades
77.5%
Profit Factor
2.10
Win Months
37.8%

About this strategy

This strategy is mainly to trade major pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDJPY. This strategy has a Medium Risk with Moderate/Medium Returns.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202330.629.2-0.2-2.7-2.35.63.72.11.1-6.29.8-2.981.0
2024-2.65.83.5-0.7-3.2-2.213.0-10.0-1.5-9.26.3-5.7-8.7
2025-1.37.69.214.01.510.0-7.22.10.0-0.00.00.039.7
2026-0.00.0-0.00.0-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/7/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$90,000
Age45 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades728
# Profitable564
% Profitable77.5%
Avg trade duration4.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.5%
drawdown periodJuly 31, 2024 - Jan 10, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)25.6%
Avg win$211
Avg loss$343

Ratios

W:L ratio2.12
Sharpe Ratio0.96
Sortino Ratio1.62
Calmar Ratio1.71

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life96.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)32.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)25.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)29.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity5.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.3%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss38.0%
Chance of 20% account loss9.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$343
Avg Win$211
# Winners564
Sum Trade PL (losers)$56,190
Sum Trade PL (winners)$119,148
Num Months Winners24
# Losers164
% Winners77.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table45

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)5725.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)95.42
Avg Trade Length4
Last Trade Ago381

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.67
Daily leverage (max)31.74

Regression

Alpha0.06
Beta0
Treynor Index14.13

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.54
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)12.94
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.98
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.80
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.18

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.36
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.05
df32
t1.78
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.26
Sortino ratio3.65
Upside Potential Ratio5.15
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms13
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.40
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error31
t(b)-0.42
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.40
Mean0.31
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df32
t1.77
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.25
Sortino ratio3.00
Upside Potential Ratio4.48
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms13
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.00
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error31
t(b)-0.62
p(b)0.73
t(a)1.86
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.75
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.46
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.33
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.55
df729
t2.59
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.73
Sortino ratio2.65
Upside Potential Ratio9.82
Upside part of mean1.23
Downside part of mean-0.90
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms374
N negative terms356
N of observations730
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error728
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.41
t(a)2.56
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)30.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0.31
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.46
df729
t2.44
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.64
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.63
Sortino ratio2.43
Upside Potential Ratio9.54
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-0.91
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms374
N negative terms356
N of observations730
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error728
t(b)0.25
p(b)0.40
t(a)2.41
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)25.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.10
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df130
t0.64
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.68
Sortino ratio1.35
Upside Potential Ratio7.86
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-1.48
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.10
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df130
t0.60
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.62
Sortino ratio1.25
Upside Potential Ratio7.75
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance-0.00
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)-1.49
p(b)0.58
t(a)0.89
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.49
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations730
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low24
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high41
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations37
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.23
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.16
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.13
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-445124064
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)163
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.57
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.41
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.49
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.95
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.56
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal15.73
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.24
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.51

Trading record

Placed 1458 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CAD/JPY short150Jul 2, 2025Aug 21, 2025($1,186)
EUR/JPY short100Jul 2, 2025Aug 21, 2025($1,886)
GBP/USD short80Jul 29, 2025Jul 30, 2025$158
NZD/USD short170Jun 23, 2025Jun 24, 2025$10
EUR/USD short90Jun 23, 2025Jun 24, 2025$49
EUR/USD short90Jun 18, 2025Jun 18, 2025$181
AUD/CHF short150Jun 16, 2025Jun 17, 2025$13
AUD/JPY short150Jun 13, 2025Jun 15, 2025$78
NZD/JPY short150Jun 13, 2025Jun 15, 2025$126
NZD/JPY short160Jun 12, 2025Jun 12, 2025$1,067
AUD/JPY short160Jun 12, 2025Jun 12, 2025$1,118
EUR/USD long90Jun 11, 2025Jun 12, 2025$690
EUR/USD long90Apr 22, 2025Jun 11, 2025$248
GBP/USD long80Jun 4, 2025Jun 5, 2025$102
GBP/CAD short80Jun 3, 2025Jun 3, 2025($51)
GBP/USD short80May 30, 2025May 30, 2025$43
USD/JPY long110May 30, 2025May 30, 2025$82
NZD/USD short170Apr 30, 2025May 1, 2025$122
GBP/USD long80Apr 22, 2025Apr 28, 2025$516
USD/CHF short100Apr 21, 2025Apr 21, 2025$116
USD/JPY short100Apr 18, 2025Apr 20, 2025$44
NZD/USD long170Apr 16, 2025Apr 16, 2025$221
USD/CHF short110Apr 16, 2025Apr 16, 2025$36
USD/CHF short100Apr 15, 2025Apr 15, 2025$11
EUR/USD long90Apr 15, 2025Apr 15, 2025$123
USD/JPY short100Apr 10, 2025Apr 10, 2025$377
GBP/CAD short80Apr 8, 2025Apr 9, 2025$191
GBP/USD short80Apr 8, 2025Apr 8, 2025$98
NZD/USD short180Apr 8, 2025Apr 8, 2025$954
USD/CHF long110Apr 2, 2025Apr 2, 2025($780)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.