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RC 103 Futures Micros

Futures · Started Jul 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-9.9%
Max Drawdown
36.8%
Trades
118
Win Trades
66.1%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
0.0%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-1.1-1.1-4.5-15.0-3.9-5.7-28.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/18/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age38 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades118
# Profitable78
% Profitable66.1%
Avg trade duration12.6 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown36.8%
drawdown periodSept 28, 2023 - Oct 06, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-9.9%
Avg win$60
Avg loss$278

Ratios

W:L ratio0.42
Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Sortino Ratio-0.76
Calmar Ratio-0.32

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life67.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-97.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-9.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-7.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity42.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss37.5%
Chance of 40% account loss7.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$278
Avg Win$60
# Winners78
Sum Trade PL (losers)$11,130
Sum Trade PL (winners)$4,690
Num Months Winners0
# Losers40
% Winners66.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table39

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)757.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)12.62
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago996

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)3.47
Daily leverage (max)18

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta-0.04
Treynor Index0.81

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.61
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.69
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.17
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.64
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.38

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.14
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.45
df24
t-2.16
p0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Sortino ratio-1.40
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms25
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error23
t(b)0.31
p(b)0.38
t(a)-2.08
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.89
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
Mean-0.14
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.43
df24
t-2.14
p0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.85
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Sortino ratio-1.39
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms25
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error23
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.37
t(a)-2.07
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.58
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.12
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.61
df562
t-0.90
p0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.90
Upside Potential Ratio1.61
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms538
N of observations563
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion-0.12
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error561
t(b)-0.49
p(b)0.69
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)5.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean-0.14
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.72
df562
t-1.05
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.62
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.62
Sortino ratio-0.99
Upside Potential Ratio1.47
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms25
N negative terms538
N of observations563
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.14
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error561
t(b)-0.52
p(b)0.70
t(a)-1.01
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)5.65
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.63
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6802710653304832
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.91599232790937e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations563
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low37
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high26
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.21
Quartile 10.21
Median0.21
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.21
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.33
Quartile 10.33
Median0.33
Quartile 30.33
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-416913408
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)8
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.51
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.62
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.22
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 304 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ Z3short1Nov 13, 2023Dec 15, 2023($2,105)
MES Z3short1Nov 13, 2023Nov 13, 2023($22)
MNQ Z3short1Nov 13, 2023Nov 13, 2023$41
QMGC Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 10, 2023$89
MNQ Z3short2Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($33)
QMCL Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023$2
MES Z3long1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($0)
QMCL Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($3)
QMGC Z3long2Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($37)
MNQ Z3long1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($18)
QMCL Z3long1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023$9
QMGC Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023$13
MES Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($16)
QMGC Z3long1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($17)
MNQ Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($14)
QMCL Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023($12)
QMGC Z3short1Nov 9, 2023Nov 9, 2023$0
MNQ Z3short4Nov 7, 2023Nov 7, 2023$108
NQ Z3long1Nov 7, 2023Nov 7, 2023$19
MNQ Z3long1Nov 6, 2023Nov 6, 2023$37
QMGC Z3short1Nov 6, 2023Nov 6, 2023$5
QMGC Z3long1Nov 6, 2023Nov 6, 2023$1
QMGC Z3long1Nov 6, 2023Nov 6, 2023$11
QMCL Z3short1Nov 6, 2023Nov 6, 2023$4
MNQ Z3short1Nov 3, 2023Nov 3, 2023$1
QMCL Z3long1Nov 3, 2023Nov 3, 2023$25
QMCL Z3short2Nov 3, 2023Nov 3, 2023($9)
QMCL Z3long1Nov 3, 2023Nov 3, 2023$28
MNQ Z3short1Nov 3, 2023Nov 3, 2023$36
QMCL Z3long1Nov 3, 2023Nov 3, 2023($2)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.