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RC 102 Futures IBKR

Equity · Futures, Options · Started Jul 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
121.1%
Max Drawdown
63.3%
Trades
20
Win Trades
90.0%
Profit Factor
43.50
Win Months
5.6%

About this strategy

This strategy has a high risk and high reward ratio and this needs a minimum 30K base account.

Event-driven Sector: Technology

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-1.8-1.86.1-4.4-1.8-1.8-5.7
2024-1.9-1.9-2.0-2.0-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.2-2.2-2.3-2.3-2.4-22.6
2025-2.4-2.5-2.6-2.6-2.7-19.92270.50.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.01567.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/18/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$360,000
Age38 months
What it tradesOptions, Futures
# Trades20
# Profitable18
% Profitable90.0%
Avg trade duration23.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown63.3%
drawdown periodOct 04, 2023 - June 11, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)121.1%
Avg win$19,798
Avg loss$4,100

Ratios

W:L ratio43.46
Sharpe Ratio0.48
Sortino Ratio17.16
Calmar Ratio12.87

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life67.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)1047.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)121.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)1.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)123.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.6%
Percent Trades Options0.3%
Short Options - Percent Covered0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss61.0%
Chance of 20% account loss37.5%
Chance of 30% account loss16.5%
Chance of 40% account loss5.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$4,100
Avg Win$19,798
# Winners18
Sum Trade PL (losers)$8,199
Sum Trade PL (winners)$356,357
Num Months Winners2
# Losers2
% Winners90.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table39

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)33442.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)557.38
Avg Trade Length23.20
Last Trade Ago446

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)5.05
Daily leverage (max)63.30

Regression

Alpha1.03
Beta-0.14
Treynor Index-7.45

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.46
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.22
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.09
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)3.88
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.03
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.15
Hold-and-Hope Ratio15.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean5.78
SD8.42
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df24
t0.99
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio85.73
Upside Potential Ratio86.76
Upside part of mean5.85
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD8.41
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms22
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion5.78
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion8.42
Covariance0.18
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)11.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)3.66
Mean Square Error71.74
DF error23
t(b)0.83
p(b)0.21
t(a)0.57
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-16.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta39.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-9.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha16.90
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)3.66
Mean1.19
SD1.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.64
df24
t0.96
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio16.80
Upside Potential Ratio17.82
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD1.78
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms22
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion1.19
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion1.79
Covariance0.03
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.80
Mean Square Error3.25
DF error23
t(b)0.75
p(b)0.23
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.60
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.80
VaR(95%)0.53
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.61
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean5.82
SD8.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df548
t0.99
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.04
Sortino ratio46.17
Upside Potential Ratio48.22
Upside part of mean6.08
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD8.49
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms535
N of observations549
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion5.82
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion8.49
Covariance0.02
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)5.65
Mean Square Error72.15
DF error547
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha17.22
Treynor index (mean / b)8.00
Jensen alpha (a)5.65
Mean1.18
SD1.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df548
t0.95
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio9.01
Upside Potential Ratio11.04
Upside part of mean1.45
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD1.79
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms535
N of observations549
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion1.18
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion1.79
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.16
Mean Square Error3.23
DF error547
t(b)0.24
p(b)0.41
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.60
Treynor index (mean / b)10.81
Jensen alpha (a)1.16
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean24.36
SD17.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.39
df130
t0.99
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.17
Sortino ratio108.34
Upside Potential Ratio111.65
Upside part of mean25.11
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD17.37
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms125
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion24.36
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion17.37
Covariance0.06
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)23.89
Mean Square Error304.16
DF error129
t(b)0.14
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.96
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-10.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-25.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha73.12
Treynor index (mean / b)28.29
Jensen alpha (a)23.89
Mean4.93
SD3.67
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.33
df130
t0.95
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.11
Sortino ratio21.03
Upside Potential Ratio24.31
Upside part of mean5.70
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD3.66
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms125
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion4.93
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion3.67
Covariance0.01
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)4.87
Mean Square Error13.58
DF error129
t(b)0.09
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.39
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha15.26
Treynor index (mean / b)42.87
Jensen alpha (a)4.87
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.36
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum13.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 43.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high5.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations549
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum13.28
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.91
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-188.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)-3.40282346638529e+38
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum13.28
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.38
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high3.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-143.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)-54.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.66
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.09
Median0.09
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.09
Median0.12
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.18
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.12
Median0.13
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-425244352
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)616
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)5.57
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)25.14
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.88
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)5.54
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)12.87
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs12.87
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.75
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)21.81
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)140.69
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1092.76
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1092.76
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal391.24

Trading record

Placed 26 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/CHF short160Jun 16, 2025Jun 17, 2025$95
QQQ long1400Oct 4, 2023Oct 5, 2023$653
QQQ2303V356 short14Oct 3, 2023Oct 4, 2023$2,790
QQQ2303J356 long50Oct 3, 2023Oct 4, 2023($7,887)
QQQ2303J355 short38Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023$1,296
ES Z3short4Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023($392)
QQQ2303V356 long19Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023$562
ES Z3long1Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023$30
QQQ2303J359 long25Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023$440
NQ Z3long1Oct 3, 2023Oct 3, 2023$47
NQ Z3long1Sep 29, 2023Oct 1, 2023$1,427
ES Z3long1Sep 29, 2023Sep 29, 2023$55
QCL X3short1Sep 28, 2023Sep 28, 2023$772
MNQ Z3long4Sep 28, 2023Sep 28, 2023$38
NQ Z3long1Sep 19, 2023Sep 19, 2023$442
NQ Z3long1Sep 19, 2023Sep 19, 2023$197
NQ Z3short1Sep 19, 2023Sep 19, 2023$17
NQ Z3long1Sep 19, 2023Sep 19, 2023$462
NQ Z3long1Sep 18, 2023Sep 18, 2023$527

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.